IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Syracuse
Atlantic Coast
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.2	#35
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.7	#182
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.8	#24

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.4	#66

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
#1 Seed	2.0%	2.0%	0.6%
Top 2 Seed	4.9%	5.0%	0.6%
Top 4 Seed	13.1%	13.3%	1.5%
Top 6 Seed	22.7%	23.0%	4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	50.4%	50.9%	18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	47.5%	48.0%	17.2%
Average Seed	6.9	6.9	8.8

.500 or above	71.5%	72.0%	32.4%
.500 or above in Conference	62.8%	63.1%	33.6%
Conference Champion	6.5%	6.5%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	3.8%	3.7%	14.2%

First Four	4.7%	4.7%	5.0%
First Round	48.2%	48.6%	16.0%
Second Round	30.5%	30.8%	8.5%
Sweet Sixteen	14.2%	14.3%	4.7%
Elite Eight	6.9%	6.9%	1.8%
Final Four	3.1%	3.1%	1.2%
Championship Game	1.4%	1.4%	0.6%
National Champion	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Neutral) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 4	1 - 4
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 2	5 - 3	8 - 10
Quad 3	4 - 1	12 - 10
Quad 4	2 - 0	14 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 01, 2020	329	Binghamton	W	86-63	99%
Dec 05, 2020	273	Rider	W	86-65	97%
Dec 12, 2020	101	@ Boston College	W	76-72	62%
Dec 19, 2020	116	Buffalo	W	86-75	83%
Dec 22, 2020	70	Notre Dame	W	78-72	70%
Dec 29, 2020	103	@ Wake Forest	W	79-75	63%
Jan 02, 2021	23	@ North Carolina	L	74-79	32%
Jan 05, 2021	16	Florida St.	L	75-76	49%
Jan 12, 2021	49	Clemson	W	72-68	64%
Jan 16, 2021	87	@ Pittsburgh	W	70-68	56%
Jan 19, 2021	43	Miami (FL)	W	77-73	63%
Jan 23, 2021	56	Virginia Tech	W	72-67	65%
Jan 25, 2021	6	@ Virginia	L	56-64	24%
Jan 31, 2021	48	North Carolina St.	W	78-74	64%
Feb 02, 2021	26	Louisville	W	73-72	54%
Feb 06, 2021	49	@ Clemson	L	69-71	45%
Feb 09, 2021	48	@ North Carolina St.	L	75-77	45%
Feb 13, 2021	87	Pittsburgh	W	73-65	75%
Feb 16, 2021	26	@ Louisville	L	70-75	35%
Feb 20, 2021	101	Boston College	W	79-69	79%
Feb 22, 2021	5	@ Duke	L	74-83	24%
Feb 27, 2021	63	@ Georgia Tech	L	73-74	48%
Mar 01, 2021	23	North Carolina	W	77-76	52%
Projected Record						13 - 10	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.3	0.9	1.7	1.8	1.2	0.5	0.1		6.5	1st
2nd													0.0	0.4	2.0	2.8	1.8	0.8	0.1				8.0	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.6	2.2	3.3	2.2	0.5	0.1					9.0	3rd
4th											0.0	0.3	2.5	3.7	2.0	0.5	0.0						9.0	4th
5th										0.0	0.2	2.2	4.1	2.0	0.4	0.0							8.9	5th
6th										0.2	1.7	4.0	2.6	0.4	0.0								8.8	6th
7th									0.0	1.3	3.8	2.9	0.5	0.0									8.6	7th
8th								0.0	0.6	3.0	3.1	0.8	0.1										7.7	8th
9th							0.0	0.3	2.1	3.4	1.2	0.1											7.2	9th
10th						0.0	0.2	1.5	3.3	1.6	0.1												6.7	10th
11th						0.2	1.0	2.5	1.7	0.2													5.6	11th
12th				0.0	0.1	0.7	1.8	1.7	0.3	0.0													4.7	12th
13th				0.1	0.6	1.3	1.5	0.4	0.0														4.0	13th
14th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.0															3.1	14th
15th	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0																2.1	15th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.3	3.3	4.9	6.6	8.1	9.8	10.2	10.5	10.4	8.8	7.9	6.3	4.0	2.7	1.4	0.5	0.1		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.4	0.0
18-2	89.8%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
17-3	67.0%	1.8		1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0
16-4	42.3%	1.7		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
15-5	13.6%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	3.2%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.5%	6.5		3.5	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		100.0%	46.4%	53.6%	1.3		0.1	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	0.5%		100.0%	42.3%	57.7%	1.4		0.3	0.2	0.0																100.0%
18-2	1.4%		100.0%	35.1%	64.9%	1.7		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0														100.0%
17-3	2.7%		100.0%	27.1%	72.9%	2.4		0.6	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0													100.0%
16-4	4.0%		100.0%	21.5%	78.5%	3.4		0.3	0.7	1.3	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-5	6.3%		99.9%	14.9%	84.9%	4.5		0.1	0.4	1.2	1.5	1.4	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.9%
14-6	7.9%		99.5%	10.5%	88.9%	6.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.6	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.4%
13-7	8.8%		96.5%	7.5%	89.0%	7.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.3	1.8	1.6	1.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0				0.3		96.2%
12-8	10.4%		85.6%	3.4%	82.2%	8.7				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.8	1.9	1.5	1.1	0.4	0.0				1.5		85.1%
11-9	10.5%		61.9%	1.8%	60.1%	10.2					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.5	0.2	0.0			4.0		61.2%
10-10	10.2%		30.1%	1.0%	29.1%	11.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0		7.2		29.4%
9-11	9.8%		5.9%	0.5%	5.3%	11.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		9.2		5.4%
8-12	8.1%		0.9%	0.5%	0.4%	12.3											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.1		0.4%
7-13	6.6%		0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	14.7													0.0			0.0		6.6		0.1%
6-14	4.9%		0.0%	0.0%		13.0														0.0				4.9
5-15	3.3%																							3.3
4-16	2.3%																							2.3
3-17	1.4%																							1.4
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		50.4%	5.5%	44.9%	6.9		2.0	2.9	4.1	4.2	4.6	5.0	5.2	5.5	4.6	4.0	3.9	3.5	0.8	0.1	0.0		49.6		47.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.4	64.4	35.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.3	74.3	25.7