Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#102
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#238
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 16.5% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.4% 7.2% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 12.2
.500 or above 69.5% 73.9% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 75.7% 57.1%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.0% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.6% 4.1%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 0.7%
First Round13.9% 15.2% 6.7%
Second Round4.8% 5.4% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 46 - 115 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 209   Montana St. W 76-65 85%    
  Nov 30, 2020 23   North Carolina L 71-80 20%    
  Dec 05, 2020 89   @ Kansas St. L 66-71 34%    
  Dec 09, 2020 132   Eastern Washington W 81-75 69%    
  Dec 14, 2020 108   Pepperdine W 79-76 62%    
  Dec 20, 2020 169   @ Wyoming W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 22, 2020 169   @ Wyoming W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 31, 2020 36   San Diego St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 02, 2021 36   San Diego St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 07, 2021 112   @ Colorado St. L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 09, 2021 112   @ Colorado St. L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 14, 2021 180   New Mexico W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 16, 2021 180   New Mexico W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 25, 2021 75   Utah St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 25, 2021 150   Fresno St. W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 27, 2021 75   Utah St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 27, 2021 150   Fresno St. W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 31, 2021 150   @ Fresno St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 02, 2021 150   @ Fresno St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 04, 2021 225   Air Force W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 06, 2021 225   Air Force W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 11, 2021 86   @ Boise St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 13, 2021 86   @ Boise St. L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 19, 2021 282   @ San Jose St. W 83-74 76%    
  Feb 21, 2021 282   @ San Jose St. W 83-74 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.0 4.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.0 3.7 1.1 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.4 8.0 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.3 8.2 6.1 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 93.2% 2.0    1.7 0.3
17-3 73.6% 2.9    2.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 43.9% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.1% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1
14-6 4.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 97.0% 48.1% 48.9% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.2%
19-1 0.9% 95.3% 45.5% 49.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.3%
18-2 2.1% 81.2% 35.3% 45.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 70.9%
17-3 3.9% 63.4% 29.2% 34.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 48.4%
16-4 6.1% 49.4% 24.9% 24.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 32.7%
15-5 8.2% 26.5% 16.4% 10.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.0 12.1%
14-6 10.3% 19.1% 14.9% 4.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 5.0%
13-7 10.8% 9.6% 8.8% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.8%
12-8 10.6% 6.2% 5.7% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 10.0 0.5%
11-9 10.2% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.0%
10-10 9.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3
9-11 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8
8-12 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-13 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 5.0
6-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 9.3% 5.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 85.0 6.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 55.2 37.9 3.4 3.4