Lafayette
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#179
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#138
Pace66.4#262
Improvement+0.7#132

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#108
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#216
Layup/Dunks-3.8#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#79
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement+0.6#120

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#286
First Shot-4.6#309
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#135
Layups/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement+0.1#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 11.9% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 95.6% 97.7% 84.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.2% 91.4%
Conference Champion 15.5% 17.8% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round10.9% 11.8% 6.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 3
Quad 48 - 213 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 02, 2021 312   @ Lehigh L 89-90 OT 73%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -8.9 -5.4 -3.3
  Jan 03, 2021 312   Lehigh W 82-70 83%     1 - 1 1 - 1 +0.5 +4.1 -3.4
  Jan 09, 2021 260   @ Bucknell W 83-60 61%     2 - 1 2 - 1 +18.7 +4.9 +12.3
  Jan 10, 2021 260   Bucknell W 87-76 73%     3 - 1 3 - 1 +3.0 +11.5 -8.6
  Jan 16, 2021 248   Loyola Maryland W 77-75 71%     4 - 1 4 - 1 -5.4 +1.9 -7.2
  Jan 17, 2021 248   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-70 58%     5 - 1 5 - 1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.8
  Jan 23, 2021 302   Boston University W 76-67 83%    
  Jan 24, 2021 302   Boston University W 76-67 83%    
  Jan 30, 2021 233   @ American W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 31, 2021 233   American W 75-70 71%    
  Feb 06, 2021 312   Lehigh W 78-68 85%    
  Feb 07, 2021 312   @ Lehigh W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 13, 2021 172   @ Navy L 68-70 37%    
  Feb 14, 2021 172   Navy W 70-69 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 260   Bucknell W 76-70 76%    
  Feb 21, 2021 260   @ Bucknell W 74-71 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 4 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.3 6.1 4.0 15.5 1st
2nd 1.1 5.5 12.3 13.3 4.4 36.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 10.1 12.5 8.4 2.4 0.1 38.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.4 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.8 3.2 7.3 12.7 18.5 21.7 20.0 10.6 4.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 4.0    2.8 1.2
14-2 57.3% 6.1    2.3 3.4 0.3
13-3 21.8% 4.3    1.1 2.3 1.0
12-4 4.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0
11-5 0.4% 0.1    0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 6.5 7.3 1.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 4.0% 23.2% 23.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.1
14-2 10.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 8.5
13-3 20.0% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 16.6
12-4 21.7% 11.1% 11.1% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 19.3
11-5 18.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 16.9
10-6 12.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.3
9-7 7.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
8-8 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-9 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.7 3.2 1.2 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.4 4.2 4.3 41.2 46.0 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%