Louisiana
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#166
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#146
Pace76.3#39
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#241
First Shot-4.1#280
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#92
Layup/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#332
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement+2.7#34

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#124
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#160
Layups/Dunks-0.6#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement-2.1#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.4% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.6
.500 or above 94.3% 96.7% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 89.8% 63.4%
Conference Champion 14.9% 16.6% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round10.1% 11.3% 4.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 6
Quad 49 - 214 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 2   Baylor L 82-112 3%     0 - 1 -7.3 +8.2 -11.3
  Dec 02, 2020 292   @ New Orleans W 66-63 70%     1 - 1 -3.1 -16.7 +13.4
  Dec 12, 2020 115   Louisiana Tech W 61-56 41%     2 - 1 +6.9 -12.7 +19.3
  Dec 15, 2020 292   New Orleans W 73-63 81%     3 - 1 +0.3 -13.8 +12.9
  Dec 19, 2020 340   McNeese St. W 75-65 93%     4 - 1 -6.7 -17.5 +9.9
  Jan 01, 2021 149   Texas St. W 83-77 OT 52%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +5.0 +1.5 +2.8
  Jan 02, 2021 149   Texas St. L 59-71 52%     5 - 2 1 - 1 -13.0 -8.1 -5.7
  Jan 08, 2021 150   Arkansas Little Rock W 66-64 52%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +1.0 -6.2 +7.3
  Jan 09, 2021 150   Arkansas Little Rock L 76-78 OT 52%     6 - 3 2 - 2 -3.0 -3.0 +0.1
  Jan 15, 2021 197   @ Texas Arlington L 86-91 52%     6 - 4 2 - 3 -5.9 +3.8 -9.2
  Jan 16, 2021 197   @ Texas Arlington W 68-51 52%     7 - 4 3 - 3 +16.1 -6.0 +21.8
  Jan 22, 2021 291   Arkansas St. W 81-68 80%     8 - 4 4 - 3 +3.4 -1.0 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2021 291   Arkansas St. W 79-70 83%    
  Jan 29, 2021 149   @ Texas St. L 64-67 34%    
  Jan 30, 2021 149   @ Texas St. L 64-67 35%    
  Feb 05, 2021 291   @ Arkansas St. W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 06, 2021 291   @ Arkansas St. W 77-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2021 299   Louisiana Monroe W 73-63 86%    
  Feb 13, 2021 299   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 19, 2021 197   Texas Arlington W 75-71 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 197   Texas Arlington W 75-71 68%    
  Feb 26, 2021 150   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 72-75 34%    
  Feb 27, 2021 150   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 72-75 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 4.6 6.3 3.0 0.5 14.9 1st
2nd 0.4 4.3 7.7 1.7 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 8.2 3.8 0.2 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.7 6.0 0.4 14.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.3 8.2 1.3 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 7.5 2.6 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.9 4.2 2.6 0.3 8.0 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.2 4.1 8th
9th 0.6 1.2 0.2 2.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.0 9.0 15.7 20.9 20.4 16.6 8.2 3.1 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
14-4 96.9% 3.0    2.5 0.5
13-5 76.4% 6.3    2.6 2.8 0.8 0.1
12-6 27.6% 4.6    0.8 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 6.3 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 100.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
14-4 3.1% 91.0% 91.0% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.3
13-5 8.2% 50.8% 50.8% 14.5 0.2 2.0 1.9 0.1 4.0
12-6 16.6% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8 0.6 1.6 0.2 14.1
11-7 20.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 20.1
10-8 20.9% 20.9
9-9 15.7% 15.7
8-10 9.0% 9.0
7-11 4.0% 4.0
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 4.1 0.5 89.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.2 1.1 16.3 48.9 33.7