Baylor
Big 12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.8#2
Expected Predictive Rating+26.5#2
Pace70.1#177
Improvement-2.1#281

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#4
First Shot+7.1#27
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#6
Layup/Dunks+2.6#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#54
Freethrows-0.7#215
Improvement-3.7#341

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#1
First Shot+8.7#3
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#63
Layups/Dunks+8.4#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#124
Freethrows+1.6#79
Improvement+1.6#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 25.3% 28.0% 16.2%
#1 Seed 74.2% 78.0% 61.4%
Top 2 Seed 95.8% 97.5% 90.1%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.2 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 88.5% 92.2% 76.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.6% 98.9% 97.8%
Sweet Sixteen82.7% 83.6% 79.5%
Elite Eight64.6% 66.4% 58.7%
Final Four45.1% 47.0% 38.7%
Championship Game29.7% 31.7% 22.6%
National Champion18.6% 19.7% 14.8%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 09 - 2
Quad 24 - 013 - 2
Quad 34 - 017 - 2
Quad 47 - 024 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 168   Louisiana W 112-82 98%     1 - 0 +29.2 +26.0 -1.0
  Nov 29, 2020 135   Washington W 86-52 96%     2 - 0 +36.4 +17.4 +20.6
  Dec 02, 2020 9   Illinois W 82-69 71%     3 - 0 +30.0 +18.6 +11.8
  Dec 09, 2020 152   Stephen F. Austin W 83-52 98%     4 - 0 +29.9 +0.7 +25.9
  Dec 19, 2020 151   @ Kansas St. W 100-69 96%     5 - 0 1 - 0 +33.7 +31.2 +3.2
  Dec 21, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 99-42 99.9%    6 - 0 +37.8 +16.1 +21.2
  Dec 29, 2020 281   Central Arkansas W 93-56 99%     7 - 0 +27.8 +2.7 +20.8
  Dec 30, 2020 334   Alcorn St. W 105-76 99.7%    8 - 0 +13.8 +19.5 -6.6
  Jan 02, 2021 111   @ Iowa St. W 76-65 93%     9 - 0 2 - 0 +17.1 -0.2 +16.5
  Jan 06, 2021 21   Oklahoma W 76-61 84%     10 - 0 3 - 0 +27.0 +13.5 +14.4
  Jan 09, 2021 100   @ TCU W 67-49 93%     11 - 0 4 - 0 +24.6 +2.8 +23.3
  Jan 16, 2021 16   @ Texas Tech W 68-60 70%     12 - 0 5 - 0 +25.2 +5.0 +20.2
  Jan 18, 2021 14   Kansas W 77-69 80%     13 - 0 6 - 0 +21.7 +16.8 +5.6
  Jan 23, 2021 33   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 27, 2021 151   Kansas St. W 81-57 99%    
  Jan 30, 2021 64   Auburn W 82-66 94%    
  Feb 02, 2021 10   @ Texas W 74-70 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 100   TCU W 80-60 97%    
  Feb 10, 2021 21   @ Oklahoma W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 13, 2021 16   Texas Tech W 74-65 84%    
  Feb 15, 2021 17   @ West Virginia W 76-70 66%    
  Feb 20, 2021 33   Oklahoma St. W 80-68 90%    
  Feb 23, 2021 111   Iowa St. W 84-64 97%    
  Feb 27, 2021 14   @ Kansas W 74-69 65%    
Projected Record 22 - 2 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.0 15.0 27.6 28.7 12.9 88.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 4.1 3.4 0.6 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.2 3.2 8.3 18.3 28.2 28.7 12.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 12.9    12.9
15-3 100.0% 28.7    28.4 0.3
14-4 97.9% 27.6    24.7 2.8 0.0
13-5 81.6% 15.0    9.5 5.0 0.5
12-6 47.4% 4.0    1.2 1.9 0.8 0.0
11-7 13.2% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 88.5% 88.5 76.8 10.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 12.9% 100.0% 67.6% 32.4% 1.1 11.4 1.5 100.0%
15-3 28.7% 100.0% 61.7% 38.3% 1.1 25.3 3.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 28.2% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.2 21.7 6.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 18.3% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.4 12.1 5.5 0.7 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.3% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.8 3.3 3.8 1.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 3.2% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 2.5 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.2% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.2% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 55.9% 44.1% 1.3 74.2 21.6 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.3% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1