Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 Duke 100.0%   4   28 - 6 16 - 4 28 - 6 16 - 4 +16.5      +11.6 6 +4.9 51 69.5 130 +16.6 12 +15.5 1
22 Virginia Tech 100.0%   11   23 - 12 11 - 9 23 - 12 11 - 9 +12.4      +7.9 21 +4.5 58 60.3 344 +10.3 51 +7.8 8
28 North Carolina 90.9%   8   24 - 9 15 - 5 24 - 9 15 - 5 +11.8      +7.4 24 +4.4 59 75.2 31 +13.3 25 +14.2 2
35 Wake Forest 11.9%   23 - 9 13 - 7 23 - 9 13 - 7 +11.1      +6.1 34 +5.0 49 74.5 43 +10.4 49 +11.2 5
48 Notre Dame 19.6%   21 - 10 15 - 5 21 - 10 15 - 5 +9.9      +6.7 28 +3.2 91 65.2 259 +11.0 44 +12.8 3
54 Miami (FL) 68.3%   11   23 - 10 14 - 6 23 - 10 14 - 6 +9.4      +8.3 18 +1.1 136 68.5 162 +11.4 41 +12.5 4
65 Syracuse 0.0%   16 - 17 9 - 11 16 - 17 9 - 11 +8.5      +8.8 16 -0.3 181 69.1 145 +5.9 97 +5.9 9
76 Clemson 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 12 17 - 16 8 - 12 +7.8      +4.8 53 +3.0 97 66.2 232 +5.9 96 +4.8 10
77 Virginia 3.0%   19 - 13 12 - 8 19 - 13 12 - 8 +7.8      +3.0 96 +4.7 54 54.1 357 +8.5 65 +10.4 6
106 Florida St. 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 10 17 - 14 10 - 10 +4.8      +2.0 120 +2.8 107 69.9 115 +7.6 74 +8.1 7
119 Louisville 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 14 13 - 19 6 - 14 +3.2      +0.6 164 +2.6 111 68.1 178 +3.3 117 +2.3 12
120 Boston College 0.0%   13 - 20 6 - 14 13 - 20 6 - 14 +3.2      +1.2 140 +2.0 121 64.1 294 +1.5 144 +2.2 13
127 North Carolina St. 0.0%   11 - 21 4 - 16 11 - 21 4 - 16 +2.7      +4.4 66 -1.7 226 68.2 175 +0.6 160 -0.5 15
142 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 15 11 - 20 5 - 15 +1.7      -1.3 210 +3.1 95 69.8 118 +0.6 159 +1.2 14
165 Pittsburgh 0.0%   11 - 21 6 - 14 11 - 21 6 - 14 +0.1      -1.7 223 +1.8 125 62.2 333 +0.9 153 +2.5 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 7.0 100.0
North Carolina 2.0 100.0
Wake Forest 5.0 100.0
Notre Dame 2.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 4.0 100.0
Syracuse 9.0 100.0
Clemson 10.0 100.0
Virginia 6.0 100.0
Florida St. 8.0 100.0
Louisville 11.0 100.0
Boston College 11.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 15.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 14.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 100.0
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 100.0
North Carolina 15 - 5 100.0
Wake Forest 13 - 7 100.0
Notre Dame 15 - 5 100.0
Miami (FL) 14 - 6 100.0
Syracuse 9 - 11 100.0
Clemson 8 - 12 100.0
Virginia 12 - 8 100.0
Florida St. 10 - 10 100.0
Louisville 6 - 14 100.0
Boston College 6 - 14 100.0
North Carolina St. 4 - 16 100.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 15 100.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 100.0% 100.0
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Miami (FL)
Syracuse
Clemson
Virginia
Florida St.
Louisville
Boston College
North Carolina St.
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.7 7.5 44.1 39.6 7.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Virginia Tech 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.1 2.0 6.6 32.4 52.2 6.6 0.0
North Carolina 90.9% 0.0% 90.9% 8   0.1 2.3 6.3 18.2 23.6 23.8 12.8 3.8 0.1 9.1 90.9%
Wake Forest 11.9% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0 1.6 9.5 0.8 88.1 11.9%
Notre Dame 19.6% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.1 13.4 0.7 80.4 19.6%
Miami (FL) 68.3% 0.0% 68.3% 11   0.0 0.0 1.2 8.0 23.9 32.6 2.6 0.0 31.8 68.3%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.2 97.0 3.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.1% 59.2% 28.6% 13.7% 5.9% 2.5%
Virginia Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50.2% 17.8% 6.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1%
North Carolina 90.9% 0.7% 90.6% 48.2% 13.6% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Wake Forest 11.9% 11.6% 6.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 19.6% 17.8% 10.5% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 68.3% 13.6% 61.3% 24.2% 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 3.0% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.9 1.3 24.2 55.4 17.8 1.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 2.1 34.8 53.9 9.0 0.2
2nd Round 98.1% 2.2 1.9 20.0 42.5 29.1 6.3 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 74.5% 1.0 25.5 52.6 19.3 2.5 0.1
Elite Eight 38.7% 0.4 61.3 34.7 3.9 0.1
Final Four 17.7% 0.2 82.3 17.2 0.5
Final Game 7.2% 0.1 92.9 7.1 0.0
Champion 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8