Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#63
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#68
Pace60.6#340
Improvement+4.2#44

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#79
First Shot+2.8#89
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#100
Layup/Dunks+3.0#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#204
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement+2.4#65

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+4.2#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#99
Layups/Dunks+4.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#172
Freethrows+2.2#40
Improvement+1.8#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.5% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.5% n/a n/a
First Round11.8% n/a n/a
Second Round4.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 2
Quad 25 - 48 - 6
Quad 36 - 114 - 7
Quad 49 - 323 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 276   Illinois-Chicago W 64-54 94%     1 - 0 +1.2 -4.2 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2021 257   Umass Lowell L 58-59 93%     1 - 1 -8.5 -6.9 -1.7
  Nov 17, 2021 268   Lipscomb L 59-78 93%     1 - 2 -27.3 -15.7 -13.0
  Nov 20, 2021 296   Austin Peay L 81-87 95%     1 - 3 -16.2 +1.5 -17.4
  Nov 25, 2021 54   Miami (FL) W 76-60 47%     2 - 3 +25.4 +6.4 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2021 4   Kansas W 74-73 19%     3 - 3 +19.1 +9.3 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2021 91   Belmont W 63-61 60%     4 - 3 +8.2 +0.9 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2021 333   Alabama St. W 93-54 97%     5 - 3 +25.9 +15.2 +11.6
  Dec 04, 2021 282   Northern Illinois W 79-41 95%     6 - 3 +28.5 +8.6 +22.1
  Dec 08, 2021 49   @ SMU L 69-77 37%     6 - 4 +4.1 +3.2 +0.8
  Dec 12, 2021 22   Virginia Tech W 62-57 44%     7 - 4 +15.2 -3.0 +18.5
  Dec 18, 2021 99   @ Mississippi L 68-76 55%     7 - 5 -0.5 -1.6 +1.1
  Dec 21, 2021 239   Southern W 69-60 91%     8 - 5 +2.6 -0.4 +3.4
  Jan 05, 2022 66   Virginia Commonwealth L 52-53 60%     8 - 6 0 - 1 +5.3 -3.2 +8.3
  Jan 08, 2022 212   @ George Washington W 83-58 80%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +24.7 +10.3 +14.3
  Jan 11, 2022 67   Saint Louis W 68-63 60%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +11.1 +5.1 +6.5
  Jan 15, 2022 267   @ Duquesne W 72-52 88%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +16.2 +7.7 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2022 82   St. Bonaventure W 68-50 65%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +22.7 +11.7 +14.7
  Jan 22, 2022 118   @ George Mason L 49-50 63%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +4.4 -14.4 +18.6
  Jan 25, 2022 176   Fordham W 68-61 86%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +4.3 +1.5 +3.0
  Jan 28, 2022 137   Rhode Island W 53-51 80%     14 - 7 6 - 2 +1.8 -12.1 +14.1
  Feb 02, 2022 66   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 82-52 43%     15 - 7 7 - 2 +40.7 +29.2 +14.8
  Feb 05, 2022 67   @ Saint Louis L 61-72 43%     15 - 8 7 - 3 -0.5 +1.3 -3.3
  Feb 09, 2022 267   Duquesne W 75-54 93%     16 - 8 8 - 3 +12.8 +16.7 +1.4
  Feb 12, 2022 212   George Washington W 80-54 89%     17 - 8 9 - 3 +21.3 +9.7 +12.9
  Feb 14, 2022 137   @ Rhode Island W 63-57 67%     18 - 8 10 - 3 +10.2 +0.2 +10.4
  Feb 19, 2022 161   @ Saint Joseph's W 74-62 73%     19 - 8 11 - 3 +14.5 +9.6 +5.8
  Feb 23, 2022 171   Massachusetts W 82-61 85%     20 - 8 12 - 3 +18.5 +17.2 +5.3
  Feb 26, 2022 214   @ La Salle L 60-62 81%     20 - 9 12 - 4 -2.4 -3.8 +1.1
  Mar 01, 2022 81   @ Richmond W 55-53 49%     21 - 9 13 - 4 +11.1 -9.9 +21.2
  Mar 05, 2022 52   Davidson W 82-76 55%     22 - 9 14 - 4 +13.4 +19.2 -5.0
  Mar 11, 2022 171   Massachusetts W 75-72 80%     23 - 9 +2.7 +3.1 +0.0
  Mar 12, 2022 81   Richmond L 64-68 57%     23 - 10 +2.9 -0.8 +3.4
Projected Record 23 - 10 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 21.5% 21.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.3 10.2 0.2 78.5 21.5%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 0.0% 21.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.3 10.2 0.2 78.5 21.5%