Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 Southern Utah 24.7%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 14 - 6 +3.0      +2.8 94 +0.2 169 72.9 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Weber St. 22.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +2.5      +3.0 91 -0.5 194 76.5 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 Montana 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +0.5      -0.2 178 +0.6 159 64.5 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Northern Colorado 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -1.9      -0.1 176 -1.8 234 68.5 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Montana St. 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 -2.0      -0.7 199 -1.3 221 68.9 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Eastern Washington 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -3.0      -0.5 190 -2.5 250 77.6 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Portland St. 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 10 -3.1      -1.2 216 -1.9 238 71.6 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Idaho St. 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -4.0      -2.8 258 -1.2 216 62.2 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
287 Sacramento St. 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -6.8      -3.4 275 -3.5 281 62.9 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Northern Arizona 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -9.9      -4.9 317 -5.0 310 61.4 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Idaho 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 16 -12.8      -6.4 339 -6.4 339 66.7 245 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Southern Utah 3.1 31.5 19.9 14.4 10.7 7.9 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3
Weber St. 3.3 28.4 19.5 14.6 11.2 8.3 6.4 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.3
Montana 4.1 17.7 16.0 14.3 12.8 10.5 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.9 2.3 0.9
Northern Colorado 5.1 9.8 11.3 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.1 10.2 8.9 6.6 4.4 2.0
Montana St. 5.1 9.6 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.8 11.3 10.1 8.7 6.9 4.5 2.2
Eastern Washington 5.6 7.3 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.1 10.3 8.5 5.8 3.1
Portland St. 5.6 7.1 9.0 10.2 11.2 11.8 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.4 6.1 3.3
Idaho St. 6.0 5.5 7.2 9.0 10.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 11.4 10.1 7.7 4.0
Sacramento St. 7.3 2.3 3.6 4.9 6.6 8.4 10.1 12.0 13.5 15.3 13.8 9.4
Northern Arizona 8.5 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.5 4.9 6.6 9.3 12.4 17.1 21.6 20.5
Idaho 9.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.9 9.0 14.2 23.5 38.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Southern Utah 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.2 6.9 8.3 10.0 10.8 11.4 11.3 10.0 8.1 5.0 2.1
Weber St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.6 10.1 10.8 11.1 10.7 9.3 7.0 4.3 1.8
Montana 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.1 6.7 8.0 9.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.4 7.9 6.0 4.1 2.2 0.8
Northern Colorado 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.5 7.7 8.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.2 7.8 6.9 5.0 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2
Montana St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.1 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.4 10.0 9.6 9.2 7.8 6.7 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3
Eastern Washington 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.4 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.4 9.8 9.7 8.8 8.2 6.7 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2
Portland St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.7 5.9 7.6 8.7 9.3 9.9 9.9 9.1 8.0 6.6 5.3 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.1
Idaho St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.1 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Sacramento St. 8 - 12 0.6 1.8 3.7 5.7 7.7 9.2 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.2 7.9 7.1 5.6 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 6 - 14 2.0 5.0 8.0 10.2 11.5 11.7 11.3 9.7 8.2 6.6 5.2 3.9 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 4 - 16 5.8 10.5 13.2 14.1 13.0 11.2 9.2 7.2 5.3 3.7 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern Utah 31.5% 23.3 6.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 28.4% 20.7 6.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Montana 17.7% 12.1 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 9.8% 6.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 9.6% 6.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 7.3% 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 7.1% 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 5.5% 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.3% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern Utah 24.7% 24.0% 0.8% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.5 6.3 5.8 4.3 2.0 75.3 1.0%
Weber St. 22.7% 21.9% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 3.4 5.2 5.3 4.0 2.0 77.3 1.1%
Montana 14.9% 14.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.2 85.1 0.3%
Northern Colorado 8.7% 8.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.7 91.3 0.2%
Montana St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 91.4 0.1%
Eastern Washington 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 93.1 0.1%
Portland St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.9 93.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 94.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 97.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern Utah 24.7% 1.1% 24.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 22.7% 1.3% 22.1% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 14.9% 1.0% 14.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 8.7% 1.0% 8.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 8.6% 0.9% 8.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.9% 1.0% 6.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.8% 0.9% 6.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.2% 0.9% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 94.8 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 14.1% 0.1 85.9 14.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0