Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2021-22

Last Updated: Nov 9, 2021

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 89.6% 21.2% 68.5% 86.9%
1  Gonzaga Auto 95.3% 62.9% 32.5% 87.4%
1  Kansas Auto 86.4% 23.7% 62.7% 82.1%
1  Purdue At-Large 83.6% 15.5% 68.0% 80.6%
2  UCLA Auto 86.7% 29.9% 56.7% 81.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 80.6% 13.7% 66.9% 77.5%
2  Villanova Auto 82.6% 28.5% 54.2% 75.7%
2  Alabama At-Large 77.5% 15.9% 61.5% 73.2%
3  Duke Auto 80.9% 19.8% 61.1% 76.2%
3  Ohio St. At-Large 74.7% 11.1% 63.6% 71.6%
3  Baylor At-Large 75.5% 18.8% 56.7% 69.9%
3  Texas At-Large 77.2% 19.2% 58.0% 71.8%
4  Kentucky Auto 74.0% 16.1% 57.9% 69.0%
4  Maryland At-Large 69.0% 8.2% 60.8% 66.2%
4  Memphis Auto 78.3% 30.9% 47.4% 68.6%
4  Michigan St. At-Large 62.4% 7.2% 55.3% 59.5%
5  Florida St. At-Large 69.9% 12.6% 57.3% 65.5%
5  North Carolina At-Large 68.9% 11.8% 57.1% 64.8%
5  Oregon At-Large 70.1% 15.1% 55.0% 64.8%
5  Houston At-Large 75.7% 30.5% 45.2% 65.1%
6  Tennessee At-Large 64.8% 12.0% 52.9% 60.1%
6  Arkansas At-Large 69.6% 13.2% 56.4% 64.9%
6  USC At-Large 67.9% 14.5% 53.4% 62.4%
6  Indiana At-Large 59.4% 5.7% 53.7% 56.9%
7  Oklahoma St. At-Large 55.6% 7.9% 47.7% 51.8%
7  Louisville At-Large 62.1% 9.9% 52.2% 57.9%
7  Auburn At-Large 64.1% 10.7% 53.5% 59.9%
7  Texas Tech At-Large 62.1% 11.4% 50.7% 57.2%
8  Connecticut At-Large 59.9% 15.4% 44.5% 52.6%
8  Virginia Tech At-Large 56.9% 8.6% 48.3% 52.9%
8  Virginia At-Large 58.0% 9.4% 48.6% 53.6%
8  West Virginia At-Large 56.1% 8.1% 48.0% 52.2%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Florida At-Large 59.8% 9.0% 50.7% 55.8%
9  Iowa At-Large 47.0% 4.2% 42.8% 44.7%
9  LSU At-Large 57.9% 8.3% 49.7% 54.1%
9  Arizona At-Large 58.6% 10.7% 47.9% 53.6%
10  Xavier At-Large 55.4% 11.1% 44.4% 49.9%
10  Seton Hall At-Large 50.9% 10.4% 40.5% 45.2%
10  Syracuse At-Large 48.1% 6.1% 42.0% 44.7%
10  BYU At-Large 54.1% 11.9% 42.2% 47.9%
11  Oklahoma At-Large 47.1% 6.7% 40.4% 43.3%
11  Wisconsin At-Large 45.6% 3.8% 41.8% 43.4%
11  Colorado At-Large 46.5% 7.3% 39.2% 42.3%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 47.0% 9.5% 37.5% 41.4%
11  St. Bonaventure Auto 60.6% 30.4% 30.1% 43.3%
11  San Diego St. Auto 48.5% 26.3% 22.2% 30.1%
12  Loyola Chicago Auto 46.3% 33.3% 13.0% 19.5%
12  UAB Auto 29.7% 22.0% 7.7% 9.9%
12  Buffalo Auto 29.4% 23.9% 5.5% 7.2%
12  Furman Auto 25.7% 23.4% 2.4% 3.1%
13  Belmont Auto 48.3% 46.5% 1.8% 3.4%
13  New Mexico St. Auto 32.6% 30.9% 1.6% 2.4%
13  South Dakota St. Auto 38.5% 37.1% 1.4% 2.2%
13  UC Santa Barbara Auto 32.2% 30.7% 1.5% 2.1%
14  Yale Auto 28.2% 27.7% 0.5% 0.7%
14  Georgia St. Auto 23.8% 22.6% 1.2% 1.6%
14  Northeastern Auto 23.7% 22.5% 1.2% 1.6%
14  Wright St. Auto 30.1% 29.2% 0.9% 1.3%
15  Colgate Auto 43.4% 42.4% 1.0% 1.8%
15  Southern Utah Auto 24.7% 24.0% 0.8% 1.0%
15  Vermont Auto 38.1% 37.3% 0.8% 1.2%
15  Iona Auto 25.6% 25.1% 0.6% 0.8%
16  Liberty Auto 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 0.8%
16  Winthrop Auto 32.3% 32.1% 0.2% 0.4%
16  Bryant Auto 24.7% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Nicholls St. Auto 38.1% 38.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Morgan St. Auto 36.3% 36.3%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Purdue 83.6% 15.5% 68.0% 80.6%
Illinois 80.6% 13.7% 66.9% 77.5%
Alabama 77.5% 15.9% 61.5% 73.2%
Texas 77.2% 19.2% 58.0% 71.8%
Ohio St. 74.7% 11.1% 63.6% 71.6%
Baylor 75.5% 18.8% 56.7% 69.9%
Maryland 69.0% 8.2% 60.8% 66.2%
Florida St. 69.9% 12.6% 57.3% 65.5%
Houston 75.7% 30.5% 45.2% 65.1%
Arkansas 69.6% 13.2% 56.4% 64.9%
Oregon 70.1% 15.1% 55.0% 64.8%
North Carolina 68.9% 11.8% 57.1% 64.8%
USC 67.9% 14.5% 53.4% 62.4%
Tennessee 64.8% 12.0% 52.9% 60.1%
Auburn 64.1% 10.7% 53.5% 59.9%
Michigan St. 62.4% 7.2% 55.3% 59.5%
Louisville 62.1% 9.9% 52.2% 57.9%
Texas Tech 62.1% 11.4% 50.7% 57.2%
Indiana 59.4% 5.7% 53.7% 56.9%
Florida 59.8% 9.0% 50.7% 55.8%
LSU 57.9% 8.3% 49.7% 54.1%
Virginia 58.0% 9.4% 48.6% 53.6%
Arizona 58.6% 10.7% 47.9% 53.6%
Virginia Tech 56.9% 8.6% 48.3% 52.9%
Connecticut 59.9% 15.4% 44.5% 52.6%
West Virginia 56.1% 8.1% 48.0% 52.2%
Oklahoma St. 55.6% 7.9% 47.7% 51.8%
Xavier 55.4% 11.1% 44.4% 49.9%
BYU 54.1% 11.9% 42.2% 47.9%
Seton Hall 50.9% 10.4% 40.5% 45.2%
Syracuse 48.1% 6.1% 42.0% 44.7%
Iowa 47.0% 4.2% 42.8% 44.7%
Wisconsin 45.6% 3.8% 41.8% 43.4%
Oklahoma 47.1% 6.7% 40.4% 43.3%
Colorado 46.5% 7.3% 39.2% 42.3%
St. Mary's 47.0% 9.5% 37.5% 41.4%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Notre Dame 44.4% 5.8% 38.6% 41.0%
Rutgers 39.5% 2.9% 36.6% 37.7%
Mississippi St. 39.9% 4.4% 35.5% 37.2%
Clemson 39.3% 4.2% 35.1% 36.6%
North Carolina St. 38.9% 4.0% 35.0% 36.4%
Creighton 40.7% 7.9% 32.8% 35.6%
Penn St. 35.7% 2.5% 33.2% 34.1%
Arizona St. 36.9% 5.0% 31.9% 33.6%
Georgia Tech 36.0% 3.9% 32.0% 33.3%
St. John's 37.6% 7.3% 30.3% 32.7%
Wichita St. 38.1% 9.8% 28.3% 31.4%
Northwestern 32.4% 2.2% 30.1% 30.8%
Washington St. 33.6% 4.2% 29.4% 30.7%
Providence 33.7% 5.5% 28.2% 29.9%
Oregon St. 31.9% 4.1% 27.9% 29.1%
Mississippi 30.6% 3.6% 27.0% 28.0%
Richmond 39.5% 16.2% 23.2% 27.8%
Butler 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 27.5%
Stanford 29.6% 3.9% 25.7% 26.8%
SMU 31.1% 8.5% 22.6% 24.7%
San Francisco 29.3% 6.5% 22.9% 24.4%
Nebraska 25.2% 1.4% 23.8% 24.2%
Central Florida 29.2% 7.7% 21.5% 23.3%
Nevada 36.2% 17.0% 19.2% 23.2%
Colorado St. 38.5% 20.3% 18.3% 22.9%
Marquette 25.0% 3.9% 21.1% 22.0%
Miami (FL) 22.6% 1.9% 20.6% 21.0%
TCU 22.6% 2.0% 20.6% 21.0%
Missouri 22.3% 2.0% 20.3% 20.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgetown 21.6% 2.9% 18.7% 19.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.1% 10.1% 17.0% 18.9%
Loyola Marymount 21.5% 4.4% 17.1% 17.9%
Utah 18.9% 2.3% 16.6% 17.0%
Saint Louis 25.0% 9.8% 15.2% 16.8%
Washington 18.3% 1.9% 16.3% 16.7%
Boise St. 26.9% 12.4% 14.4% 16.5%
Utah St. 27.9% 13.8% 14.0% 16.3%
Vanderbilt 17.2% 1.5% 15.7% 15.9%
Kansas St. 17.1% 1.6% 15.6% 15.8%
Cincinnati 18.0% 4.5% 13.5% 14.1%
Texas A&M 15.3% 1.6% 13.8% 14.0%
South Carolina 13.5% 1.2% 12.3% 12.5%
Minnesota 11.9% 0.5% 11.4% 11.5%
Wake Forest 12.0% 1.0% 11.0% 11.1%
California 11.9% 1.1% 10.8% 11.0%
Drake 29.4% 20.9% 8.5% 10.8%
Dayton 18.5% 8.7% 9.7% 10.7%
Davidson 16.9% 7.4% 9.5% 10.3%
DePaul 11.7% 1.6% 10.1% 10.3%
Pittsburgh 10.5% 0.7% 9.8% 9.8%
Rhode Island 16.4% 7.3% 9.1% 9.8%
Tulsa 12.5% 3.1% 9.4% 9.7%
Louisiana Tech 22.0% 15.6% 6.4% 7.6%
Northern Iowa 18.1% 11.4% 6.7% 7.5%
Missouri St. 20.1% 14.1% 6.0% 7.0%
Santa Clara 8.0% 1.8% 6.3% 6.4%
Georgia 6.8% 0.5% 6.3% 6.3%
Massachusetts 10.0% 4.3% 5.6% 5.9%
Temple 7.9% 2.2% 5.6% 5.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Ohio 24.9% 20.7% 4.2% 5.3%
Western Kentucky 18.9% 14.5% 4.4% 5.2%
Iowa St. 5.6% 0.6% 5.0% 5.1%
Boston College 5.3% 0.4% 4.9% 4.9%
Marshall 14.3% 9.9% 4.4% 4.9%
North Texas 12.2% 8.5% 3.7% 4.1%
Tulane 5.2% 1.6% 3.7% 3.7%
Toledo 17.0% 13.9% 3.1% 3.6%
Pepperdine 4.3% 1.0% 3.3% 3.3%
UNLV 6.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.8%
Pacific 3.9% 1.2% 2.6% 2.7%
UC Irvine 27.2% 25.2% 2.0% 2.6%
Old Dominion 9.9% 7.6% 2.3% 2.5%
Fresno St. 6.0% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4%
Duquesne 4.0% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 6.0% 1.9% 2.0%
George Mason 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%
Kent St. 11.7% 10.1% 1.6% 1.8%
Akron 12.4% 11.0% 1.4% 1.6%
Chattanooga 16.5% 15.2% 1.3% 1.5%
San Diego 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Bradley 5.4% 4.2% 1.2% 1.3%
East Tennessee St. 15.2% 14.1% 1.1% 1.2%
Wofford 15.1% 14.1% 1.0% 1.2%
South Florida 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.1%
Weber St. 22.7% 21.9% 0.9% 1.1%
East Carolina 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1%
UTEP 5.2% 4.2% 1.0% 1.1%
Wyoming 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 1.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.7% 12.9% 0.9% 1.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Miami (OH) 7.8% 6.9% 0.9% 1.0%
Bowling Green 8.3% 7.4% 0.8% 0.9%
Indiana St. 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Florida Atlantic 5.5% 4.7% 0.8% 0.8%
Mercer 11.4% 10.7% 0.7% 0.8%
Rice 4.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.8%
Murray St. 26.0% 25.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Saint Joseph's 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7%
North Dakota St. 23.1% 22.6% 0.5% 0.7%
UC Riverside 14.9% 14.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Charlotte 4.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.6%
Grand Canyon 16.6% 16.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Valparaiso 3.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.6%
La Salle 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5%
Southern Miss 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Cleveland St. 17.4% 17.0% 0.4% 0.5%
James Madison 15.0% 14.7% 0.4% 0.5%
Evansville 2.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Stephen F. Austin 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Appalachian St. 10.8% 10.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Northern Kentucky 15.1% 14.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Drexel 14.4% 14.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Louisiana 12.2% 11.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Montana 14.9% 14.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Abilene Christian 11.9% 11.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Hofstra 11.2% 10.9% 0.2% 0.3%
Oral Roberts 16.4% 16.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Coastal Carolina 9.9% 9.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Morehead St. 15.9% 15.7% 0.2% 0.3%
Texas San Antonio 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Delaware 12.9% 12.7% 0.2% 0.2%
Eastern Kentucky 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Ball St. 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Texas St. 12.6% 12.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Jacksonville St. 17.2% 17.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Hawaii 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Illinois St. 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2%
St. Peter's 14.9% 14.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Harvard 20.0% 19.8% 0.1% 0.2%
Northern Colorado 8.7% 8.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Navy 15.5% 15.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Utah Valley 6.8% 6.6% 0.1% 0.2%
Sam Houston St. 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 0.2%
Monmouth 10.8% 10.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Stony Brook 15.2% 15.1% 0.1% 0.1%
New Mexico 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.9% 8.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.1%
George Washington 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Davis 6.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Elon 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Seattle 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 0.1%
VMI 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1%
South Alabama 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Boston University 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.1%
South Dakota 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Hartford 11.3% 11.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Arkansas St. 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Washington 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
College of Charleston 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Montana St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Oakland 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn 16.0% 16.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 9.2% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Siena 8.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 22.1% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
New Hampshire 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 12.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Wagner 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 6.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
American 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Loyola Maryland 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Binghamton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%