Preseason Rankings
Big West
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 UC Santa Barbara 32.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 5 +5.5      +3.6 73 +1.9 119 64.2 302 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 UC Irvine 27.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 14 - 6 +4.3      +0.9 149 +3.4 81 68.0 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 UC Riverside 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 12 - 8 +1.5      -0.6 193 +2.0 117 66.0 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Hawaii 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 10 - 10 -2.0      -1.2 218 -0.7 197 65.4 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Cal St. Bakersfield 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -2.0      -1.7 236 -0.2 177 61.0 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 UC Davis 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -2.2      -1.0 210 -1.1 211 71.4 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Cal St. Fullerton 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -3.7      +0.1 171 -3.9 294 76.0 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 UC San Diego 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -5.5      -1.4 227 -4.1 298 71.2 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Long Beach St. 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 12 -6.0      -3.1 267 -2.9 265 80.9 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Cal St. Northridge 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 13 -7.3      -1.4 224 -5.9 334 73.3 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Cal Poly 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.9      -4.5 308 -3.5 283 66.3 258 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Santa Barbara 2.6 39.2 21.7 13.7 9.0 6.1 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2
UC Irvine 3.0 31.5 21.4 15.1 10.5 7.5 5.2 3.7 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.4
UC Riverside 4.0 16.7 17.3 16.0 13.1 10.6 8.4 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.1
Hawaii 5.5 7.2 9.7 11.4 12.1 11.7 11.3 10.1 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.9
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.5 7.1 9.7 11.2 12.1 11.6 11.3 10.1 9.0 7.6 6.2 4.0
UC Davis 5.6 6.7 9.5 10.8 12.1 11.7 11.4 10.3 9.3 7.8 6.3 4.2
Cal St. Fullerton 6.3 4.1 6.4 8.5 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.0 9.0 6.8
UC San Diego 7.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.6 12.5 12.8 12.5 10.8
Long Beach St. 7.3 1.9 3.7 5.3 7.1 8.6 9.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 13.7 12.7
Cal St. Northridge 7.9 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.3 7.1 8.8 10.5 12.3 14.6 16.2 17.6
Cal Poly 8.1 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.3 7.8 10.1 12.2 14.5 17.3 21.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Santa Barbara 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.6 7.0 8.3 10.3 11.6 12.3 11.9 10.4 7.5 3.6
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.8 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.4 11.4 10.6 8.4 5.4 2.4
UC Riverside 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.6 5.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 10.0 10.6 10.1 9.6 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.1 0.6
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.5 8.4 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.4 6.7 5.4 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.5 6.2 7.0 8.5 9.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 8.0 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 4.6 6.3 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.2 7.9 6.7 5.2 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.5 8.7 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
UC San Diego 8 - 12 0.5 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.2 8.8 9.6 10.0 9.9 9.5 8.4 7.1 6.0 4.4 3.3 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.2 7.8 9.2 9.8 10.3 9.7 9.1 8.0 6.8 5.2 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7 - 13 1.2 3.6 5.6 8.1 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.2 9.2 8.1 6.8 5.2 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 6 - 14 1.7 4.3 6.9 9.0 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.0 8.9 7.3 6.1 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Santa Barbara 39.2% 30.1 7.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 31.5% 23.4 6.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 16.7% 11.3 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 7.2% 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.1% 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 6.7% 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 4.1% 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 2.3% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 1.9% 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 1.2% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Santa Barbara 32.2% 30.7% 1.5% 13   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.0 5.6 7.9 6.4 4.2 1.9 67.8 2.1%
UC Irvine 27.2% 25.2% 2.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.1 5.4 6.4 4.9 2.8 1.5 72.8 2.6%
UC Riverside 14.9% 14.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.3 3.5 2.8 1.5 85.1 0.6%
Hawaii 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 92.9 0.2%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 93.1 0.1%
UC Davis 6.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 93.4 0.1%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 95.6 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 97.6 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 98.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 32.2% 1.4% 31.6% 8.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
UC Irvine 27.2% 1.6% 26.4% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
UC Riverside 14.9% 1.0% 14.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 7.1% 0.8% 6.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.9% 0.7% 6.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.6% 0.8% 6.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.4% 0.7% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 2.4% 0.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.5 4.4 0.0
1st Round 97.5% 1.0 2.5 94.2 3.2 0.0
2nd Round 19.6% 0.2 80.4 19.3 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1