Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 UAB 29.7%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +7.5      +3.1 90 +4.4 62 67.3 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
93 Louisiana Tech 22.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +5.7      +2.0 116 +3.7 76 72.0 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
100 Western Kentucky 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +5.4      +2.7 100 +2.6 101 68.1 211 0.0 1 0.0 1
118 Marshall 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +3.6      +2.9 93 +0.7 152 78.9 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 North Texas 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 8 +3.0      -0.2 182 +3.2 87 59.8 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 Old Dominion 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +2.5      0.0 173 +2.5 106 67.6 222 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Florida Atlantic 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +0.5      -0.6 195 +1.1 138 69.0 184 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 UTEP 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 +0.3      -1.4 226 +1.7 125 67.8 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Rice 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -0.1      +2.7 101 -2.8 260 71.5 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 Charlotte 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.5      -1.8 239 +1.4 133 59.4 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Southern Miss 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.6      -2.6 253 +0.9 141 67.4 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Texas San Antonio 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 11 -2.1      +0.5 161 -2.6 253 76.5 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 Middle Tennessee 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5.8      -3.5 281 -2.3 249 71.6 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Florida International 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 5 - 13 -6.0      -2.9 262 -3.1 271 73.5 80 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
UAB 3.8 27.7 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.7 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3
Louisiana Tech 4.6 20.3 14.3 12.3 10.2 8.7 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.7
Western Kentucky 4.4 21.2 15.7 12.6 10.7 8.6 7.3 6.0 4.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.2 0.6
Marshall 5.4 13.2 12.1 11.3 10.4 9.4 8.6 7.5 6.7 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.0 2.1 1.2
North Texas 6.2 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.2 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.5 4.4 3.4 1.6
Old Dominion 6.0 9.7 10.1 10.1 9.6 9.7 8.8 8.3 7.5 6.8 6.0 4.9 3.9 2.9 1.7
Florida Atlantic 7.2 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.1 3.5
UTEP 7.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.2 7.8 6.8 5.9 4.1
Rice 7.8 4.0 5.3 5.9 6.7 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 8.9 8.4 7.7 6.7 4.7
Charlotte 7.5 4.6 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.2 5.9 4.6
Southern Miss 8.7 2.6 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.7 7.5 8.2 8.7 9.3 10.0 9.9 9.7 8.1
Texas San Antonio 9.0 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.7 10.8 8.6
Middle Tennessee 10.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.3 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.4 9.1 11.0 13.5 15.7 18.8
Florida International 10.7 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.9 4.6 5.8 7.3 8.7 10.8 13.6 16.4 20.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UAB 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.2 7.9 9.9 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.1 9.2 5.8 2.4
Louisiana Tech 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.9 6.5 7.8 9.3 10.4 10.8 11.1 10.2 8.9 6.5 3.8 1.5
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.4 10.8 9.4 7.1 4.3 1.5
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.2 2.2 0.7
North Texas 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.0 9.5 10.2 10.4 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.4
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.5 5.9 7.8 8.9 10.4 10.8 10.8 9.9 8.6 7.0 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.4
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.1 9.8 10.4 10.8 10.1 9.6 7.7 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2
UTEP 9 - 9 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.1 8.8 9.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 8.7 7.2 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2
Rice 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 8.1 9.7 10.5 10.8 10.3 9.8 8.0 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Charlotte 9 - 9 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.5 8.9 10.2 10.6 10.4 9.9 8.3 7.2 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.8 2.2 4.3 6.3 8.3 9.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 9.3 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Texas San Antonio 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 4.8 7.0 8.9 10.3 11.0 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.5 6.0 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 6 - 12 2.4 5.8 9.0 11.2 12.3 12.4 11.2 9.7 7.8 6.3 4.4 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 3.0 6.6 9.7 11.8 12.5 12.0 11.0 9.5 7.5 5.7 4.2 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UAB 27.7% 18.8 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 20.3% 13.3 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 21.2% 13.8 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marshall 13.2% 8.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 9.2% 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 9.7% 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 5.7% 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 4.8% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 4.0% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 4.6% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida International 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UAB 29.7% 22.0% 7.7% 12   0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.6 4.5 6.8 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 70.3 9.9%
Louisiana Tech 22.0% 15.6% 6.4% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.3 5.4 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 78.0 7.6%
Western Kentucky 18.9% 14.5% 4.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.6 4.7 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 81.1 5.2%
Marshall 14.3% 9.9% 4.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.3 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 85.7 4.9%
North Texas 12.2% 8.5% 3.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 87.8 4.1%
Old Dominion 9.9% 7.6% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 90.1 2.5%
Florida Atlantic 5.5% 4.7% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 94.5 0.8%
UTEP 5.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 94.8 1.1%
Rice 4.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 95.5 0.8%
Charlotte 4.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 96.0 0.6%
Southern Miss 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 97.1 0.5%
Texas San Antonio 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 97.6 0.2%
Middle Tennessee 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UAB 29.7% 2.9% 28.4% 12.1% 5.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Louisiana Tech 22.0% 2.4% 20.8% 8.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 18.9% 1.8% 18.1% 6.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Marshall 14.3% 1.9% 13.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
North Texas 12.2% 1.6% 11.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 9.9% 1.2% 9.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 5.5% 0.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.2% 0.5% 4.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 4.5% 0.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 4.0% 0.4% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.9% 0.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 70.7 25.9 3.2 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.3 0.3 75.9 21.8 2.0 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 38.8% 0.4 61.2 34.7 3.9 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.9% 0.2 85.1 14.3 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.1
Final Four 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Final Game 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2