Preseason Rankings
Ivy League
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
126 Yale 28.2%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 10 - 4 +2.9      +2.2 112 +0.6 157 69.3 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 Harvard 20.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 9 - 5 +0.5      -0.2 179 +0.6 158 69.3 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Princeton 22.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 8 - 6 +0.1      +0.4 162 -0.3 182 69.3 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 Penn 16.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 6 -1.1      -0.8 200 -0.4 184 69.3 173 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Brown 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 6 - 8 -4.0      -4.6 309 +0.6 160 69.3 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Dartmouth 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 6 - 8 -5.9      -5.1 322 -0.8 199 69.3 174 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Cornell 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 5 - 9 -7.0      -3.3 273 -3.6 289 69.3 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Columbia 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 4 - 10 -8.6      -5.5 327 -3.0 269 69.3 175 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 2.5 38.3 22.1 14.9 10.2 6.7 4.3 2.4 1.1
Harvard 3.2 25.0 20.0 17.1 13.2 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.5
Princeton 3.3 22.3 20.0 17.1 14.1 11.0 7.7 5.1 2.7
Penn 3.6 17.5 17.4 16.9 15.1 12.4 9.9 6.8 4.0
Brown 4.6 8.3 11.3 13.2 14.8 15.9 14.5 12.7 9.2
Dartmouth 5.2 5.1 7.5 10.2 12.7 15.3 16.8 17.3 15.1
Cornell 5.5 3.5 6.0 8.6 11.4 14.1 17.7 19.5 19.2
Columbia 6.0 2.2 4.0 6.2 8.8 12.4 17.0 21.8 27.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.4 13.0 14.4 14.6 12.7 9.2 4.4
Harvard 9 - 5 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.1 6.5 8.5 10.9 12.7 13.2 13.0 11.2 8.5 5.2 2.0
Princeton 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.6 9.4 11.4 12.9 13.4 13.0 10.6 7.8 4.3 1.6
Penn 8 - 6 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.0 8.4 10.7 12.3 13.0 13.0 11.3 8.7 5.9 3.1 1.0
Brown 6 - 8 0.8 2.6 4.8 7.7 9.9 12.1 13.2 12.8 11.2 9.1 7.2 4.7 2.6 1.1 0.3
Dartmouth 6 - 8 1.6 4.6 8.1 10.9 12.6 13.5 12.7 11.3 9.1 6.7 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Cornell 5 - 9 2.4 6.1 9.7 12.4 13.8 13.5 12.1 10.3 7.8 5.4 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Columbia 4 - 10 4.3 9.2 12.9 14.5 14.5 12.9 10.4 8.0 5.6 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 38.3% 27.7 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Harvard 25.0% 16.7 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
Princeton 22.3% 14.7 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Penn 17.5% 10.9 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Brown 8.3% 4.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 5.1% 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cornell 3.5% 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Columbia 2.2% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 28.2% 27.7% 0.5% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.5 4.5 7.9 6.8 4.2 1.1 71.8 0.7%
Harvard 20.0% 19.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 2.4 5.2 5.6 4.0 1.4 80.0 0.2%
Princeton 22.1% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 6.0 6.0 3.0 77.9 0.0%
Penn 16.0% 16.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.1 4.5 2.8 84.0 0.1%
Brown 6.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.1 93.4 0.0%
Dartmouth 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 96.2 0.0%
Cornell 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 97.5 0.0%
Columbia 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 28.2% 0.6% 27.9% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 20.0% 0.5% 19.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 22.1% 1.1% 21.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 16.0% 1.2% 15.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 6.6% 0.5% 6.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 3.8% 0.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 2.5% 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 1.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 97.7 0.4
2nd Round 14.0% 0.1 86.0 13.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0