Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 Buffalo 29.4%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 15 - 5 +6.7      +4.6 55 +2.1 113 79.7 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 Ohio 24.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +6.0      +4.2 60 +1.8 123 71.1 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Toledo 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 7 +4.0      +4.4 58 -0.4 186 70.6 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Akron 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 8 +2.8      +2.0 118 +0.8 147 68.7 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Kent St. 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 8 +2.5      +1.9 119 +0.5 163 72.2 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 Bowling Green 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +1.3      +2.4 106 -1.1 208 73.1 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 Miami (OH) 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.9      +1.9 121 -1.0 203 63.9 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Ball St. 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 11 -1.8      -1.4 228 -0.4 187 74.5 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Central Michigan 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 6 - 14 -6.3      -1.3 223 -5.0 311 77.9 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Western Michigan 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 14 -6.6      -3.1 269 -3.5 286 65.5 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 Eastern Michigan 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.6      -4.6 312 -3.0 268 68.0 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
314 Northern Illinois 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 15 -8.5      -5.1 320 -3.5 284 64.5 296 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 3.0 33.0 21.0 14.3 10.3 7.6 5.3 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
Ohio 3.3 26.6 20.0 15.2 11.8 9.0 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1
Toledo 4.3 16.6 14.8 14.2 12.8 11.6 9.3 7.3 5.7 3.8 2.2 1.2 0.5
Akron 4.5 13.9 14.2 13.9 12.5 11.6 9.9 8.1 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.8
Kent St. 4.9 11.1 11.6 12.5 12.6 12.2 11.0 9.6 7.7 5.5 3.3 2.0 0.8
Bowling Green 5.6 7.6 8.8 10.2 11.6 11.6 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.4 5.0 3.1 1.6
Miami (OH) 5.5 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.6 12.1 12.0 11.0 9.3 7.2 4.8 3.1 1.6
Ball St. 6.7 3.4 5.4 7.0 8.8 10.5 11.5 12.5 12.4 10.8 8.4 5.9 3.5
Central Michigan 8.9 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.2 8.7 11.2 14.2 16.7 17.2 14.5
Western Michigan 8.9 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.1 6.0 8.7 11.3 14.6 16.9 17.3 14.7
Eastern Michigan 9.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.5 8.1 11.0 14.2 16.7 17.4 18.2
Northern Illinois 9.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.6 8.4 12.2 17.0 22.1 25.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Buffalo 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.2 9.0 10.8 12.0 12.3 11.7 9.8 7.0 3.0
Ohio 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.7 8.4 10.1 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.3 8.2 5.1 2.0
Toledo 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.0 7.4 9.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 9.9 8.6 6.8 4.7 2.5 0.8
Akron 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.8 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.3 10.1 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.0 2.1 0.7
Kent St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.4 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.5 10.2 9.4 8.2 6.6 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.4
Bowling Green 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.8 6.6 7.9 9.2 9.6 10.3 10.0 9.1 7.6 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2
Miami (OH) 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.4 7.6 8.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 9.2 8.2 6.6 4.7 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2
Ball St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.1 7.5 9.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
Central Michigan 6 - 14 1.7 4.1 7.1 9.3 11.0 11.8 10.9 10.2 8.7 7.3 5.5 4.3 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 14 1.6 4.2 7.2 9.7 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.4 4.2 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 14 2.0 5.1 8.0 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.3 9.8 8.4 6.8 5.1 3.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 15 3.9 8.2 11.5 13.0 13.0 11.8 10.5 8.5 6.2 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 33.0% 23.7 7.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio 26.6% 18.6 6.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 16.6% 11.0 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Akron 13.9% 9.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 11.1% 7.0 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Bowling Green 7.6% 4.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 7.8% 4.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 29.4% 23.9% 5.5% 12   0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.8 7.0 5.4 2.6 1.1 0.3 70.6 7.2%
Ohio 24.9% 20.7% 4.2% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 3.1 6.1 4.9 2.6 1.0 0.3 75.1 5.3%
Toledo 17.0% 13.9% 3.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.0 4.2 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 83.0 3.6%
Akron 12.4% 11.0% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.9 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.3 87.6 1.6%
Kent St. 11.7% 10.1% 1.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.7 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 88.3 1.8%
Bowling Green 8.3% 7.4% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 91.7 0.9%
Miami (OH) 7.8% 6.9% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 92.2 1.0%
Ball St. 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 96.3 0.2%
Central Michigan 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Buffalo 29.4% 2.4% 28.4% 10.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Ohio 24.9% 1.9% 24.1% 8.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Toledo 17.0% 1.6% 16.3% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 12.4% 0.9% 11.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 11.7% 0.9% 11.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 8.3% 0.5% 8.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 7.8% 0.7% 7.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.7% 0.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 83.0 16.1 0.8 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.1 0.6 86.0 12.9 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 31.6% 0.3 68.4 29.5 2.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.3 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.6 0.0
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5 0.0
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2