Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 UCLA 86.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +17.4      +9.8 2 +7.6 10 61.1 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 Oregon 70.1%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 7 +13.7      +8.4 13 +5.4 48 67.4 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 USC 67.9%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +13.6      +5.9 33 +7.6 9 66.7 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 Arizona 58.6%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +12.1      +6.1 30 +6.0 39 68.8 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 Colorado 46.5%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 10 +10.3      +4.2 61 +6.1 36 65.2 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 Arizona St. 36.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +8.9      +5.2 47 +3.7 73 79.4 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
69 Washington St. 33.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +8.2      +3.0 92 +5.2 53 68.2 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 Oregon St. 31.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +8.1      +4.7 52 +3.4 82 63.5 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 Stanford 29.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +7.9      +1.9 120 +6.0 40 71.5 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Utah 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 +6.1      +3.6 72 +2.5 104 67.8 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 Washington 18.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 12 +5.6      +2.8 95 +2.8 96 74.8 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 California 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 13 +4.0      +0.6 159 +3.5 79 62.8 322 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UCLA 2.8 39.8 19.8 12.7 8.7 6.1 4.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2
Oregon 4.2 18.5 16.4 14.1 11.5 9.6 8.1 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.9 2.0 1.0
USC 4.3 17.7 16.3 14.0 11.8 9.7 8.2 6.6 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.1
Arizona 4.8 13.7 13.6 13.0 11.7 10.5 9.1 7.5 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.0 1.9
Colorado 5.8 8.0 9.7 10.5 10.6 10.1 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.9 6.7 5.4 3.6
Arizona St. 6.7 5.0 6.9 8.0 8.7 9.4 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.6 8.8 7.9 6.0
Washington St. 6.6 4.5 7.1 8.4 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 8.8 7.8 6.2
Oregon St. 7.0 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.1 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.0 10.0 8.9 7.2
Stanford 7.1 3.9 5.2 6.7 7.6 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.2 10.7 10.2 9.5 7.6
Utah 7.9 2.2 3.7 5.1 6.0 7.1 8.4 9.4 10.0 10.9 12.1 12.6 12.5
Washington 8.1 1.7 3.3 4.4 5.5 6.6 8.1 9.1 10.1 11.6 12.6 13.4 13.7
California 8.8 0.9 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.2 6.5 7.9 9.4 11.2 13.4 16.3 20.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UCLA 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.2 8.8 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.9 10.1 7.5 3.3
Oregon 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.2 8.0 9.0 9.8 9.9 10.2 9.6 8.4 6.5 4.4 2.5 0.8
USC 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.7 9.2 9.6 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.4 4.2 2.2 0.8
Arizona 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.2 8.0 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.5
Colorado 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.0 7.3 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.2
Arizona St. 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.0 7.5 8.7 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.0 7.9 6.5 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Washington St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.6 9.4 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.0 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Oregon St. 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.0 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.1 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Stanford 9 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.1 8.3 6.9 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
Utah 8 - 12 0.7 2.2 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.2 7.8 6.7 5.6 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.9 2.5 4.5 6.5 8.4 9.4 10.0 10.2 9.7 8.7 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 7 - 13 1.6 4.1 6.5 8.7 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.7 6.1 4.9 3.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UCLA 39.8% 30.7 7.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon 18.5% 12.7 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
USC 17.7% 12.1 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona 13.7% 9.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Colorado 8.0% 5.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 5.0% 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 4.5% 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 4.2% 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 3.9% 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
California 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UCLA 86.7% 29.9% 56.7% 2   18.1 14.2 11.2 8.8 7.5 6.4 5.7 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 81.0%
Oregon 70.1% 15.1% 55.0% 5   7.6 7.8 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 64.8%
USC 67.9% 14.5% 53.4% 6   5.9 6.7 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.2 5.9 4.9 4.6 4.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 62.4%
Arizona 58.6% 10.7% 47.9% 9   3.9 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.4 53.6%
Colorado 46.5% 7.3% 39.2% 11   2.0 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.5 42.3%
Arizona St. 36.9% 5.0% 31.9% 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.1 33.6%
Washington St. 33.6% 4.2% 29.4% 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.4 30.7%
Oregon St. 31.9% 4.1% 27.9% 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.1 29.1%
Stanford 29.6% 3.9% 25.7% 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.4 26.8%
Utah 18.9% 2.3% 16.6% 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1 17.0%
Washington 18.3% 1.9% 16.3% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.7 16.7%
California 11.9% 1.1% 10.8% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.1 11.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UCLA 86.7% 1.8% 85.8% 69.0% 44.5% 26.9% 15.5% 8.6% 4.6%
Oregon 70.1% 3.8% 68.3% 48.2% 26.2% 13.5% 6.7% 3.3% 1.6%
USC 67.9% 3.4% 66.2% 46.1% 24.7% 12.9% 6.3% 3.0% 1.5%
Arizona 58.6% 3.9% 56.7% 37.2% 18.7% 9.0% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9%
Colorado 46.5% 4.0% 44.6% 27.2% 12.4% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4%
Arizona St. 36.9% 3.8% 35.0% 20.5% 8.7% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Washington St. 33.6% 4.1% 31.4% 17.3% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Oregon St. 31.9% 3.6% 30.0% 17.1% 7.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Stanford 29.6% 3.6% 27.8% 15.8% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Utah 18.9% 2.6% 17.5% 9.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington 18.3% 2.5% 16.9% 8.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
California 11.9% 2.0% 10.8% 5.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.1 0.1 1.2 7.4 22.1 32.3 24.9 9.7 2.2 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.9 0.1 1.7 9.9 25.3 32.2 21.8 7.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.4% 3.2 0.6 6.2 20.8 32.8 25.8 11.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 87.9% 1.6 12.1 34.7 34.8 15.1 3.1 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 62.5% 0.8 37.5 44.4 15.7 2.3 0.1
Final Four 36.8% 0.4 63.2 32.5 4.2 0.1
Final Game 19.5% 0.2 80.5 18.8 0.7
Champion 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.9