Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Kentucky 74.0%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14.8      +8.3 14 +6.5 32 68.9 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Alabama 77.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +14.7      +8.7 11 +6.1 38 80.5 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Arkansas 69.6%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +13.8      +7.2 20 +6.6 27 78.6 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 Tennessee 64.8%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +13.3      +5.7 39 +7.5 11 66.9 241 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Auburn 64.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +12.7      +7.4 19 +5.3 52 75.2 59 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Florida 59.8%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +12.0      +6.5 25 +5.5 44 69.3 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 LSU 57.9%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +11.8      +9.0 6 +2.8 95 74.0 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 Mississippi St. 39.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +9.2      +4.9 51 +4.3 64 64.3 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Mississippi 30.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +8.4      +2.1 114 +6.3 34 63.2 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
84 Missouri 22.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +6.7      +2.8 97 +3.9 69 69.6 161 0.0 1 0.0 1
92 Vanderbilt 17.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +5.9      +3.8 67 +2.1 115 69.4 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Texas A&M 15.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +5.7      +2.3 110 +3.4 84 62.7 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
104 South Carolina 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +4.8      +2.1 115 +2.8 98 82.7 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Georgia 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 5 - 13 +2.4      +2.3 111 +0.1 172 79.8 13 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 4.6 19.8 14.2 12.1 10.5 8.9 7.9 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.6
Alabama 4.5 21.1 14.9 12.1 10.3 8.5 7.5 6.2 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.7
Arkansas 4.8 17.9 14.6 12.1 10.4 8.9 7.9 6.7 5.7 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.3 1.5 0.7
Tennessee 5.2 15.2 13.0 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.3 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.7 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.0
Auburn 5.3 14.0 12.2 11.6 10.6 9.3 8.5 7.6 6.5 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.8 1.9 1.1
Florida 5.6 12.5 11.4 10.7 10.0 9.2 8.6 7.6 7.0 6.1 5.3 4.3 3.4 2.4 1.6
LSU 6.4 9.2 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.7 4.8 3.5 1.9
Mississippi St. 7.4 4.9 6.0 6.9 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 7.8 6.5 5.6 3.7
Mississippi 7.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.0 7.7 7.9 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.2 7.6 6.6 4.6
Missouri 8.9 2.3 3.1 3.9 5.0 6.0 6.4 7.2 8.3 8.8 9.5 9.8 10.6 10.5 8.7
Vanderbilt 9.2 1.6 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.1 8.2 9.0 10.0 10.7 11.2 10.9 9.6
Texas A&M 9.2 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.2 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.4 10.7 11.3 10.0
South Carolina 9.6 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.5 7.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 11.8 12.7 12.7
Georgia 10.8 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.6 7.1 8.8 10.9 13.0 16.3 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.4 8.3 9.7 10.6 11.7 11.3 10.3 8.3 6.2 3.4 1.3
Alabama 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.0 7.7 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.3 10.6 9.0 6.5 3.9 1.5
Arkansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 10.9 10.2 8.2 5.7 3.2 1.2
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.5 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.4 8.8 7.0 4.7 2.6 0.8
Auburn 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.4 10.4 11.0 11.1 10.4 8.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 0.7
Florida 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.4 6.8 8.3 9.6 10.4 10.8 10.4 9.5 7.8 6.1 3.8 1.9 0.7
LSU 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.4 9.6 10.5 10.9 10.2 9.4 7.8 6.0 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.4
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.7 10.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 5.7 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.0 7.8 9.3 10.3 10.6 10.6 9.6 8.5 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
Missouri 7 - 11 0.8 2.4 4.6 6.8 8.7 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.4 8.7 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 0.9 2.5 4.8 7.4 9.4 11.0 11.5 11.2 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 7 - 11 1.0 2.7 5.0 7.4 9.4 10.7 11.3 10.9 9.9 9.0 7.3 5.4 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 1.4 3.7 6.3 8.5 10.5 11.5 11.2 10.8 9.2 8.2 6.4 4.6 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia 5 - 13 3.0 7.0 10.3 12.1 12.5 11.9 11.0 9.3 7.5 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 19.8% 13.0 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama 21.1% 14.0 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 17.9% 11.2 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 15.2% 9.6 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Auburn 14.0% 8.5 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida 12.5% 7.7 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
LSU 9.2% 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 4.9% 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 4.4% 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Missouri 2.3% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 1.3% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 74.0% 16.1% 57.9% 4   9.4 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.2 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.7 3.8 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 26.0 69.0%
Alabama 77.5% 15.9% 61.5% 2   12.6 11.6 9.0 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.5 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 22.5 73.2%
Arkansas 69.6% 13.2% 56.4% 6   6.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 30.4 64.9%
Tennessee 64.8% 12.0% 52.9% 6   6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.2 60.1%
Auburn 64.1% 10.7% 53.5% 7   5.3 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 35.9 59.9%
Florida 59.8% 9.0% 50.7% 9   4.1 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 4.5 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.2 55.8%
LSU 57.9% 8.3% 49.7% 9   4.0 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.4 4.7 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.1 54.1%
Mississippi St. 39.9% 4.4% 35.5% 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 60.1 37.2%
Mississippi 30.6% 3.6% 27.0% 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4 28.0%
Missouri 22.3% 2.0% 20.3% 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7 20.7%
Vanderbilt 17.2% 1.5% 15.7% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 82.8 15.9%
Texas A&M 15.3% 1.6% 13.8% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 84.7 14.0%
South Carolina 13.5% 1.2% 12.3% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.5 12.5%
Georgia 6.8% 0.5% 6.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 93.2 6.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 74.0% 2.9% 72.6% 53.4% 30.9% 16.8% 8.9% 4.7% 2.5%
Alabama 77.5% 3.4% 75.9% 57.0% 33.3% 18.0% 9.2% 4.7% 2.3%
Arkansas 69.6% 4.0% 67.6% 47.4% 25.7% 13.2% 6.6% 3.2% 1.5%
Tennessee 64.8% 3.2% 63.3% 44.1% 23.9% 12.3% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4%
Auburn 64.1% 4.1% 62.1% 41.8% 21.3% 10.5% 5.0% 2.3% 1.1%
Florida 59.8% 4.0% 57.7% 37.9% 18.8% 9.2% 4.4% 2.0% 0.8%
LSU 57.9% 4.0% 56.0% 36.3% 17.7% 8.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8%
Mississippi St. 39.9% 4.1% 37.8% 22.0% 9.4% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Mississippi 30.6% 3.5% 28.9% 16.3% 6.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Missouri 22.3% 2.9% 20.8% 11.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Vanderbilt 17.2% 2.5% 15.9% 8.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas A&M 15.3% 2.4% 14.1% 7.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
South Carolina 13.5% 2.2% 12.3% 6.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia 6.8% 1.3% 6.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.2 21.1 30.0 24.4 11.2 2.8 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.3 2.6 10.8 23.8 30.4 21.4 8.6 1.9 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 3.9 0.2 2.5 11.0 24.3 29.6 21.0 9.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 92.4% 2.0 7.6 26.5 34.7 22.2 7.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 69.1% 1.0 30.9 43.3 20.8 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Final Four 41.8% 0.5 58.2 35.3 6.1 0.3 0.0
Final Game 22.4% 0.2 77.6 21.3 1.1
Champion 11.1% 0.1 88.9 11.1