Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 South Dakota St. 38.5%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 4 +5.4      +5.9 34 -0.5 189 75.3 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 North Dakota St. 23.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +2.5      +1.7 125 +0.8 145 62.6 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Oral Roberts 16.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 6 +0.7      +3.3 82 -2.6 254 75.5 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 South Dakota 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 -1.0      +1.7 124 -2.7 258 70.7 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 UMKC 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -3.8      -3.4 274 -0.5 193 58.8 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Western Illinois 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -6.0      -0.9 204 -5.2 314 76.3 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 North Dakota 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -8.5      -3.2 271 -5.3 318 67.6 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Nebraska Omaha 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -10.0      -4.7 314 -5.3 316 75.3 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Denver 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -13.1      -5.7 330 -7.4 345 74.5 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 St. Thomas 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 23 3 - 15 -19.2      -9.2 351 -10.0 354 69.3 179 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
South Dakota St. 2.1 48.0 23.1 13.4 7.6 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 2.8 28.1 24.2 18.3 12.4 8.1 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Oral Roberts 3.3 19.3 20.4 19.1 15.6 11.2 7.1 4.3 2.1 0.7 0.2
South Dakota 3.8 13.0 17.0 17.9 17.2 13.8 9.7 6.2 3.4 1.4 0.3
UMKC 4.8 6.1 10.1 12.9 16.1 17.1 14.7 11.0 7.3 3.7 1.0
Western Illinois 5.6 3.1 6.2 9.5 13.1 15.7 17.2 15.1 11.5 6.7 2.0
North Dakota 6.4 1.3 3.1 5.4 8.8 12.5 16.4 18.8 17.3 11.9 4.6
Nebraska Omaha 6.9 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.5 10.0 14.9 18.4 20.2 16.4 7.0
Denver 7.8 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 5.7 9.9 15.0 21.2 27.8 14.7
St. Thomas 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 5.2 11.0 24.4 55.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Dakota St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.5 8.4 11.4 13.9 15.8 16.0 13.1 7.2
North Dakota St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.0 7.2 9.2 11.6 13.4 13.7 12.9 10.4 6.7 2.6
Oral Roberts 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.1 7.1 9.3 11.3 12.3 12.9 12.1 10.0 7.1 3.8 1.4
South Dakota 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.1 7.0 9.0 10.8 12.1 12.4 11.5 9.9 7.3 4.8 2.3 0.7
UMKC 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.6 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.1 11.3 9.9 7.7 5.6 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.2
Western Illinois 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.3 9.3 11.1 11.9 11.6 10.8 9.0 7.2 5.1 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.0 8.6 11.2 12.1 12.3 11.6 10.1 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 12 0.8 2.5 5.4 8.0 11.1 12.6 12.7 12.0 10.3 8.4 6.1 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Denver 5 - 13 2.2 6.4 10.5 13.6 14.4 13.4 11.6 9.5 6.9 4.7 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 3 - 15 16.5 21.5 20.0 14.9 10.7 6.9 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 48.0% 36.5 9.9 1.5 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 28.1% 19.4 7.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 19.3% 12.4 5.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 13.0% 8.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
UMKC 6.1% 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 3.1% 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 1.3% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Denver 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 38.5% 37.1% 1.4% 13   0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.6 6.8 9.8 8.0 4.9 2.0 61.5 2.2%
North Dakota St. 23.1% 22.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.8 5.0 5.9 4.8 3.0 76.9 0.7%
Oral Roberts 16.4% 16.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.4 4.0 3.9 2.7 83.6 0.3%
South Dakota 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.8 3.1 2.7 88.4 0.1%
UMKC 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.2 93.8 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 96.6 0.0%
North Dakota 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 98.3 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.0 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 38.5% 1.4% 37.9% 9.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 23.1% 1.5% 22.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 16.4% 1.3% 15.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 11.6% 1.3% 11.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 6.2% 1.2% 5.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.4% 1.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 94.8 1.7
2nd Round 16.7% 0.2 83.3 16.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0