Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 95.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 4 14 - 2 +21.2      +14.0 1 +7.1 16 80.9 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 BYU 54.1%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 10 - 6 +11.2      +6.6 23 +4.6 60 68.8 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 St. Mary's 47.0%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 6 +10.0      +3.5 76 +6.5 29 60.6 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 San Francisco 29.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 9 - 7 +8.4      +4.1 63 +4.3 65 69.4 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Loyola Marymount 21.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 9 - 7 +6.8      +3.8 65 +3.0 94 65.3 275 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 Santa Clara 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 9 +3.0      +1.5 134 +1.6 129 74.4 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Pacific 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 9 +2.1      +0.6 158 +1.5 131 66.0 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Pepperdine 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 10 +1.5      +1.8 123 -0.3 183 75.6 51 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 San Diego 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 6 - 10 +0.1      -0.5 192 +0.6 161 73.3 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
307 Portland 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 3 - 13 -8.1      -2.4 252 -5.7 327 75.5 52 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.4 75.7 14.9 5.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.5 13.1 25.8 19.8 14.0 10.6 7.2 5.0 2.8 1.5 0.3
St. Mary's 3.9 10.1 22.1 18.8 15.3 11.7 8.9 6.2 4.2 2.3 0.5
San Francisco 4.2 7.4 17.9 17.9 16.3 13.1 10.7 7.8 5.0 3.0 0.8
Loyola Marymount 4.8 4.6 12.9 15.8 15.9 14.5 12.9 10.0 7.4 4.6 1.4
Santa Clara 6.0 1.6 5.9 9.1 11.2 13.0 14.2 15.0 14.0 11.1 4.9
Pacific 6.2 1.2 4.7 8.0 10.6 12.9 14.5 15.1 14.6 12.6 5.8
Pepperdine 6.6 0.7 3.4 5.8 8.7 10.8 13.9 16.4 17.5 15.7 7.0
San Diego 6.7 0.7 3.7 6.2 8.3 10.7 13.0 14.7 16.4 17.3 9.0
Portland 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.4 6.0 11.1 21.6 54.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.7 8.3 13.2 19.6 25.4 23.7
BYU 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.6 9.3 11.5 13.4 14.1 13.5 10.6 7.2 3.4 1.1
St. Mary's 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.7 7.9 10.3 12.6 13.4 13.3 11.6 8.8 5.5 2.5 0.7
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.3 9.7 11.8 13.0 13.5 12.4 9.8 6.9 3.9 1.6 0.4
Loyola Marymount 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.3 6.7 9.0 11.8 13.0 13.3 12.3 10.5 7.3 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.6 9.3 11.5 13.1 13.0 12.0 9.9 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pacific 7 - 9 0.5 1.9 4.2 7.2 10.0 12.3 13.1 13.2 11.7 9.4 7.1 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 10 0.7 2.4 5.7 9.1 12.1 14.1 14.0 12.4 10.6 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego 6 - 10 1.1 3.5 6.6 9.8 12.1 13.1 12.8 11.9 9.7 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland 3 - 13 16.5 21.1 19.3 15.0 11.1 7.3 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 75.7% 64.5 9.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
BYU 13.1% 7.7 4.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 10.1% 5.8 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 7.4% 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 4.6% 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.1
Santa Clara 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Pacific 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Pepperdine 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 95.3% 62.9% 32.5% 1   30.0 20.6 11.3 8.6 6.0 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 87.4%
BYU 54.1% 11.9% 42.2% 10   2.6 3.3 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.5 5.7 6.4 4.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 45.9 47.9%
St. Mary's 47.0% 9.5% 37.5% 11   1.7 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.8 5.3 5.9 6.5 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.0 41.4%
San Francisco 29.3% 6.5% 22.9% 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.8 5.0 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 70.7 24.4%
Loyola Marymount 21.5% 4.4% 17.1% 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 78.5 17.9%
Santa Clara 8.0% 1.8% 6.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.0 6.4%
Pacific 3.9% 1.2% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1 2.7%
Pepperdine 4.3% 1.0% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7 3.3%
San Diego 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0 1.3%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 95.3% 1.1% 94.8% 83.8% 62.2% 43.7% 29.1% 19.1% 12.3%
BYU 54.1% 6.1% 51.1% 31.4% 14.9% 7.0% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6%
St. Mary's 47.0% 6.1% 43.8% 25.5% 11.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%
San Francisco 29.3% 5.6% 26.6% 14.5% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Loyola Marymount 21.5% 4.5% 19.3% 9.7% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Santa Clara 8.0% 2.0% 6.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 3.9% 1.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 4.3% 1.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 9.2 36.0 37.3 15.0 2.3 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 0.0 11.9 39.8 34.8 11.9 1.5 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 95.5% 1.7 4.5 37.7 41.6 14.3 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 76.5% 1.0 23.5 55.0 19.3 2.0 0.1
Elite Eight 53.5% 0.6 46.5 47.1 6.2 0.2 0.0
Final Four 34.5% 0.4 65.5 33.0 1.5 0.0
Final Game 21.9% 0.2 78.1 21.6 0.3
Champion 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.6