Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#279
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.4% 4.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 9.7% 9.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 21.9% 22.2% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 34.2% 34.6% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.4% 60.0% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.9% 57.6% 16.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.6
.500 or above 80.8% 81.5% 34.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.2% 59.8% 21.4%
Conference Champion 7.2% 7.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.9% 20.0%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 2.1%
First Round57.7% 58.3% 15.6%
Second Round39.2% 39.6% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 20.2% 3.7%
Elite Eight9.9% 10.0% 1.8%
Final Four4.6% 4.7% 0.6%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 300   Eastern Michigan W 79-56 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 314   Northern Illinois W 78-54 98%    
  Nov 17, 2021 52   St. John's W 78-72 69%    
  Nov 21, 2021 171   Louisiana W 80-65 91%    
  Nov 23, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 76-55 96%    
  Nov 27, 2021 118   Marshall W 81-69 84%    
  Nov 30, 2021 44   @ Syracuse L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 04, 2021 75   Nebraska W 77-69 75%    
  Dec 08, 2021 43   @ Wisconsin L 63-64 46%    
  Dec 12, 2021 234   Merrimack W 73-54 94%    
  Dec 18, 2021 45   Notre Dame W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 22, 2021 166   Northern Kentucky W 74-59 89%    
  Dec 29, 2021 252   UNC Asheville W 81-61 95%    
  Jan 02, 2022 53   @ Penn St. W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 12   Ohio St. W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 09, 2022 106   Minnesota W 76-65 81%    
  Jan 13, 2022 39   @ Iowa L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 17, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 20, 2022 5   Purdue L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 23, 2022 2   Michigan L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 26, 2022 53   Penn St. W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 63-68 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 8   Illinois L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 08, 2022 58   @ Northwestern W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 15, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 24, 2022 16   Maryland W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 27, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 73-68 65%    
  Mar 02, 2022 50   Rutgers W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 64-71 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.6 7.0 7.9 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.3 7.1 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.1% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 89.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 70.1% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
16-4 41.9% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 15.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.4% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.5 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.7% 100.0% 14.7% 85.2% 3.3 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.1% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 4.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 8.3% 98.5% 7.5% 91.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-8 9.3% 95.6% 5.2% 90.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.3%
11-9 9.6% 86.6% 2.4% 84.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 86.3%
10-10 9.6% 67.3% 1.4% 65.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.1 66.9%
9-11 9.3% 38.5% 0.8% 37.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.8 38.0%
8-12 7.9% 15.6% 0.5% 15.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 15.2%
7-13 7.0% 3.7% 0.2% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 3.5%
6-14 5.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.6%
5-15 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0%
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.4% 5.7% 53.7% 5.9 4.4 5.3 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.4 3.5 3.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 40.6 56.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.6 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.7 15.3