Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.3#18
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#302
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 6.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.5 14.6
.500 or above 22.7% 56.4% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 53.1% 25.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 7.3% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 21.7% 8.3% 22.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round2.2% 6.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 41 - 6
Quad 32 - 63 - 12
Quad 48 - 510 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 67   @ San Francisco L 70-87 7%    
  Nov 18, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. L 68-84 8%    
  Nov 26, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 83-81 55%    
  Dec 05, 2021 81   Belmont L 79-88 22%    
  Dec 08, 2021 351   @ Alabama St. W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 18, 2021 311   Kennesaw St. W 81-75 69%    
  Dec 21, 2021 66   @ Mississippi L 64-81 9%    
  Dec 29, 2021 109   @ Furman L 72-85 15%    
  Jan 01, 2022 272   The Citadel W 90-86 62%    
  Jan 05, 2022 155   @ Mercer L 74-83 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 85-79 69%    
  Jan 12, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 71-81 21%    
  Jan 15, 2022 141   East Tennessee St. L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 20, 2022 218   @ VMI L 81-86 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-83 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 155   Mercer L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 83-82 51%    
  Feb 02, 2022 135   Chattanooga L 75-80 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 272   @ The Citadel L 87-89 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 139   Wofford L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-80 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 218   VMI W 84-83 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro L 76-80 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 109   Furman L 75-82 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 135   @ Chattanooga L 72-83 21%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.4 5.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 4.3 5.8 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 1.2 3.4 4.3 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.9 10th
Total 1.2 3.5 5.9 8.5 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.6% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.9% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.9% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 21.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 81.3% 54.7% 26.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.8%
17-1 0.1% 52.8% 37.2% 15.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.8%
16-2 0.3% 38.5% 35.5% 3.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6%
15-3 0.7% 25.9% 25.3% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9%
14-4 1.4% 22.3% 22.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2%
13-5 2.2% 16.2% 16.1% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.1%
12-6 3.4% 8.8% 8.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
11-7 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6
10-8 6.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3
9-9 8.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.8
8-10 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
7-11 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.9
6-12 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 5.9% 5.9
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%