Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#202
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 10.2% 10.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 20.0% 20.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 37.2% 37.3% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 51.1% 51.2% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.5% 75.6% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 70.0% 14.5%
Average Seed 5.0 5.0 8.2
.500 or above 92.3% 92.4% 44.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 81.8% 44.6%
Conference Champion 23.9% 24.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.5% 12.4%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 3.0%
First Round74.5% 74.5% 18.4%
Second Round57.2% 57.3% 6.0%
Sweet Sixteen34.8% 34.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight19.9% 19.9% 0.0%
Final Four11.1% 11.1% 0.0%
Championship Game6.0% 6.0% 0.0%
National Champion3.2% 3.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 34 - 015 - 9
Quad 47 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 345   Incarnate Word W 86-54 99.9%   
  Nov 15, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 17, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 92-62 99.6%   
  Nov 20, 2021 71   Stanford W 77-66 83%    
  Nov 24, 2021 61   Arizona St. W 82-75 72%    
  Dec 04, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-50 99.9%   
  Dec 12, 2021 6   Villanova W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 18, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 20, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 90-57 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 92-61 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 04, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 74-66 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 80   @ TCU W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 11, 2022 21   Texas Tech W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 15, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 18, 2022 32   @ West Virginia W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 25, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 29, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 31, 2022 32   West Virginia W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 7   Texas W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 80   TCU W 77-65 83%    
  Feb 21, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 4   Kansas W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 28, 2022 7   @ Texas L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 82-66 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 6.4 5.9 3.7 1.4 23.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.0 5.4 2.5 0.4 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.4 1.1 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.9 11.5 11.3 10.5 9.0 6.4 3.7 1.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.6 0.1
16-2 93.0% 5.9    5.0 0.9 0.0
15-3 71.3% 6.4    4.2 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.8% 4.3    1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.2% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 16.6 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 100.0% 66.9% 33.1% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 100.0% 56.8% 43.2% 1.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.4% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.8 3.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.0% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 99.9% 29.4% 70.4% 3.4 1.0 2.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 11.3% 99.3% 20.7% 78.6% 4.7 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-6 11.5% 96.2% 14.6% 81.6% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.5%
11-7 10.9% 88.3% 9.7% 78.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 87.1%
10-8 9.3% 74.0% 7.2% 66.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 72.0%
9-9 7.9% 50.1% 4.6% 45.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.9 47.7%
8-10 6.2% 23.9% 2.8% 21.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.8 21.7%
7-11 4.8% 7.3% 2.1% 5.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 5.3%
6-12 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.1%
5-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1%
4-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 75.5% 18.8% 56.7% 5.0 10.2 9.8 9.4 7.9 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.7 4.0 3.4 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 93.2 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 6.2