Preseason Rankings
Cleveland St.
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#283
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 2.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 32.8% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.5 12.2 13.9
.500 or above 72.6% 93.5% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 95.2% 81.0%
Conference Champion 21.4% 41.3% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round16.9% 32.2% 15.1%
Second Round2.6% 8.4% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 2.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 38   @ BYU L 65-78 10%    
  Nov 13, 2021 91   Ohio L 72-74 43%    
  Nov 20, 2021 265   Canisius W 78-68 80%    
  Nov 22, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 86-70 91%    
  Dec 02, 2021 166   Northern Kentucky W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 04, 2021 115   Wright St. W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 13, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-81 13%    
  Dec 18, 2021 10   @ Duke L 63-81 7%    
  Dec 21, 2021 132   @ Kent St. L 70-75 35%    
  Dec 30, 2021 333   @ IUPUI W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 05, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-70 76%    
  Jan 07, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 09, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 13, 2022 221   Oakland W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 15, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 21, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 23, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 28, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 30, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 04, 2022 316   Green Bay W 77-64 84%    
  Feb 06, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 10, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 333   IUPUI W 82-67 89%    
  Feb 14, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 18, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 20, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 74-67 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 221   @ Oakland W 75-74 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 14 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 4.3 5.1 4.4 2.6 1.0 21.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.5 4.9 3.4 1.4 0.2 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.3 5.9 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.0 6.5 4.6 2.6 1.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
21-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
20-2 94.6% 4.4    3.9 0.5 0.0
19-3 78.0% 5.1    3.9 1.2 0.1
18-4 54.0% 4.3    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
17-5 28.9% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
16-6 12.4% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 15.4 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 1.0% 79.3% 69.3% 10.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 32.7%
21-1 2.6% 65.1% 59.5% 5.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 13.9%
20-2 4.6% 49.5% 47.6% 1.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 3.5%
19-3 6.5% 39.6% 39.0% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 1.0%
18-4 8.0% 32.1% 32.0% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 5.4 0.1%
17-5 9.1% 25.4% 25.3% 0.1% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 6.8 0.1%
16-6 9.6% 17.5% 17.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 7.9
15-7 9.6% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 8.4
14-8 9.5% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 8.5
13-9 8.6% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.0
12-10 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.1
11-11 5.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.7
10-12 5.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
9-13 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-14 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-15 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-16 1.4% 1.4
5-17 0.9% 0.9
4-18 0.5% 0.5
3-19 0.3% 0.3
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.4% 17.0% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 1.9 82.6 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 25.0 33.8 23.8 8.8 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 41.2 20.6 38.2