Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#51
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#149
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 7.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 10.9% 12.3% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 42.0% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.9% 25.8% 6.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 10.6
.500 or above 91.1% 93.8% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 91.6% 76.2%
Conference Champion 26.3% 28.5% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four4.5% 4.9% 2.2%
First Round36.4% 39.6% 15.0%
Second Round19.6% 21.7% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 9.6% 2.0%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.3% 0.5%
Final Four1.7% 2.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 35 - 6
Quad 37 - 211 - 8
Quad 49 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 154   Oral Roberts W 86-74 87%    
  Nov 12, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-54 99.8%   
  Nov 19, 2021 157   Bradley W 75-66 79%    
  Nov 27, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 81-66 89%    
  Dec 01, 2021 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 81-62 94%    
  Dec 04, 2021 49   St. Mary's W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 11, 2021 56   Mississippi St. W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 17, 2021 108   Tulsa W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 20, 2021 15   Alabama L 78-83 34%    
  Dec 28, 2021 240   @ New Mexico W 77-66 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 306   Air Force W 78-57 95%    
  Jan 07, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 12, 2022 72   Utah St. W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. W 87-71 90%    
  Jan 19, 2022 240   New Mexico W 80-63 91%    
  Jan 22, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 75-60 88%    
  Jan 25, 2022 63   Nevada W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 28, 2022 145   UNLV W 77-66 81%    
  Jan 31, 2022 156   @ Wyoming W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 04, 2022 42   San Diego St. W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 08, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 11, 2022 138   Fresno St. W 76-65 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 145   @ UNLV W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 156   Wyoming W 82-70 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 05, 2022 76   Boise St. W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.9 7.8 5.2 2.0 26.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 7.4 4.3 1.0 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 5.6 2.0 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.4 10.1 12.1 12.6 12.9 11.3 8.8 5.2 2.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-1 100.0% 5.2    5.0 0.3
16-2 89.1% 7.8    6.0 1.8 0.0
15-3 61.0% 6.9    3.7 2.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 27.3% 3.5    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 6.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 17.8 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.0% 99.1% 67.2% 31.9% 3.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
17-1 5.2% 96.0% 54.0% 42.0% 4.8 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 91.3%
16-2 8.8% 89.6% 45.3% 44.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 81.0%
15-3 11.3% 74.2% 33.7% 40.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 61.0%
14-4 12.9% 54.8% 25.6% 29.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.8 39.3%
13-5 12.6% 33.3% 16.8% 16.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.4 19.8%
12-6 12.1% 18.7% 11.7% 7.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 8.0%
11-7 10.1% 9.7% 7.6% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 2.2%
10-8 8.4% 5.8% 4.9% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.9%
9-9 6.2% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.1%
8-10 4.3% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-11 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 38.5% 20.3% 18.3% 8.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.3 6.2 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 61.5 22.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.8 45.8 35.2 14.4 3.5 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 27.1 32.6 24.5 11.0 2.6 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 96.3% 2.5 27.5 35.4 7.9 11.1 6.9 7.4