Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#212
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#230
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#309
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 13.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 45.8% 69.6% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 79.2% 56.8%
Conference Champion 8.3% 15.0% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.1% 5.2%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round7.2% 12.7% 5.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 412 - 516 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 156   @ Wyoming L 74-80 28%    
  Nov 13, 2021 114   @ Toledo L 73-83 19%    
  Nov 17, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 65-80 10%    
  Nov 20, 2021 27   @ Louisville L 63-81 6%    
  Nov 27, 2021 192   @ Hofstra L 74-78 36%    
  Nov 30, 2021 134   @ Northeastern L 69-77 25%    
  Dec 02, 2021 333   @ IUPUI W 82-76 68%    
  Dec 05, 2021 253   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 09, 2021 132   @ Kent St. L 73-81 25%    
  Dec 11, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 76-69 72%    
  Dec 18, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 84-77 71%    
  Dec 30, 2021 281   Youngstown St. W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 01, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 05, 2022 221   Oakland W 80-76 61%    
  Jan 07, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 09, 2022 316   Green Bay W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 20, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-79 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 333   IUPUI W 85-73 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 73-82 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 09, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 11, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 13, 2022 221   @ Oakland L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 18, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 20, 2022 115   Wright St. L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 24, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 26, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-76 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 8.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.8 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.8 6.3 7.3 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.1 8.4 7.6 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
20-2 93.4% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
19-3 78.3% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
18-4 51.1% 2.0    1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
17-5 26.7% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
16-6 10.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 5.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 65.4% 57.7% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.1%
21-1 0.6% 53.5% 50.7% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.8%
20-2 1.5% 43.0% 42.1% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6%
19-3 2.4% 35.8% 35.2% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.8%
18-4 3.9% 25.5% 25.4% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 0.1%
17-5 5.1% 20.3% 20.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.1 0.0%
16-6 6.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 5.5
15-7 7.6% 11.0% 11.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 6.8
14-8 8.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.7
13-9 9.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.6
12-10 8.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.6
11-11 8.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.6
10-12 8.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
9-13 7.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.3
8-14 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-15 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-16 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-17 2.6% 2.6
4-18 1.7% 1.7
3-19 1.1% 1.1
2-20 0.6% 0.6
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.9 92.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%