IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.2	#253
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.8	#157
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#292

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.2	#219

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.2%	10.1%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.9	15.0

.500 or above	33.6%	67.3%	30.4%
.500 or above in Conference	44.6%	71.2%	42.0%
Conference Champion	4.0%	11.5%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	9.0%	2.0%	9.7%

First Four	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%
First Round	3.8%	9.5%	3.3%
Second Round	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	60-74	9%
Nov 13, 2021	189	@ Valparaiso	L	66-73	26%
Nov 20, 2021	46	@ Loyola Chicago	L	55-73	6%
Nov 25, 2021	202	Hawaii	L	67-70	38%
Dec 02, 2021	221	Oakland	W	75-74	54%
Dec 05, 2021	212	Detroit Mercy	W	74-73	51%
Dec 11, 2021	279	@ Central Michigan	L	76-78	44%
Dec 14, 2021	112	DePaul	L	69-75	30%
Dec 19, 2021	314	Northern Illinois	W	71-65	70%
Dec 30, 2021	247	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	76-73	58%
Jan 01, 2022	151	Cleveland St.	L	68-71	40%
Jan 06, 2022	115	@ Wright St.	L	68-80	17%
Jan 08, 2022	166	@ Northern Kentucky	L	64-72	25%
Jan 10, 2022	333	@ IUPUI	W	77-74	60%
Jan 13, 2022	205	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	70-76	31%
Jan 15, 2022	316	@ Green Bay	W	71-70	51%
Jan 20, 2022	166	Northern Kentucky	L	67-69	42%
Jan 22, 2022	115	Wright St.	L	71-77	31%
Jan 27, 2022	212	@ Detroit Mercy	L	70-76	33%
Jan 29, 2022	221	@ Oakland	L	72-77	35%
Feb 03, 2022	282	Robert Morris	W	74-70	63%
Feb 05, 2022	281	Youngstown St.	W	74-70	63%
Feb 10, 2022	151	@ Cleveland St.	L	65-74	24%
Feb 12, 2022	247	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	73-76	40%
Feb 14, 2022	333	IUPUI	W	80-71	77%
Feb 17, 2022	281	@ Youngstown St.	L	71-73	45%
Feb 19, 2022	282	@ Robert Morris	L	71-73	45%
Feb 24, 2022	316	Green Bay	W	73-67	69%

Feb 26, 2022	205	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	73-74	49%
Projected Record						12 - 17	10 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-22	1-21	2-20	3-19	4-18	5-17	6-16	7-15	8-14	9-13	10-12	11-11	12-10	13-9	14-8	15-7	16-6	17-5	18-4	19-3	20-2	21-1	22-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1		4.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.0				5.9	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.1	0.9	2.0	2.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0					7.3	3rd
4th											0.0	0.2	1.4	2.7	2.5	1.1	0.2	0.0							8.2	4th
5th										0.0	0.4	1.9	3.4	2.6	0.8	0.1	0.0								9.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.0	0.6	2.3	3.7	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0									9.9	6th
7th								0.1	0.7	2.7	4.2	2.2	0.6	0.1											10.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.0	3.1	3.7	2.1	0.4	0.0												10.5	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	1.5	3.3	3.4	1.7	0.3	0.0													10.6	9th
10th				0.1	0.6	1.8	3.3	2.6	1.1	0.2	0.0														9.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	2.4	1.8	0.7	0.1	0.0															8.3	11th
12th	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.6	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0																6.0	12th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.5	2.7	4.0	5.2	6.9	7.7	8.5	8.9	9.2	8.5	8.0	7.0	5.9	4.9	3.8	2.6	1.8	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
22-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
21-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
20-2	94.9%	0.5		0.5	0.1
19-3	78.2%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
18-4	54.5%	1.0		0.6	0.3	0.1
17-5	29.5%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
16-6	11.2%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
15-7	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0			0.0
13-9	0.0%
12-10	0.0%
11-11	0.0%

Total	4.0%	4.0		2.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
22-0	0.1%		71.4%	67.9%	3.6%	9.9					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		11.1%
21-1	0.2%		48.8%	44.6%	4.2%	12.5									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		7.5%
20-2	0.6%		45.7%	44.5%	1.2%	13.1										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3		2.1%
19-3	1.1%		33.3%	33.3%		13.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.7
18-4	1.8%		25.5%	25.4%	0.1%	14.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.4		0.2%
17-5	2.6%		20.0%	20.0%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.1
16-6	3.8%		13.8%	13.8%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	3.3
15-7	4.9%		8.8%	8.8%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	4.5
14-8	5.9%		7.2%	7.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	5.5
13-9	7.0%		4.7%	4.7%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.7
12-10	8.0%		3.8%	3.8%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.3	7.7
11-11	8.5%		2.5%	2.5%		15.9																0.0	0.2	8.3
10-12	9.2%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	9.1
9-13	8.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
8-14	8.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.4
7-15	7.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
6-16	6.9%																							6.9
5-17	5.2%																							5.2
4-18	4.0%																							4.0
3-19	2.7%																							2.7
2-20	1.5%																							1.5
1-21	0.8%																							0.8
0-22	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.2%	4.2%	0.0%	14.8					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.2	1.5	95.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.9					36.4	21.2		21.2		21.2
Lose Out	0.1%