IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.5	#345
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.7	#324
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.9	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.6	#348

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.8%	9.7%	3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	16.0

.500 or above	11.9%	32.1%	8.0%
.500 or above in Conference	38.2%	60.0%	33.9%
Conference Champion	5.4%	11.4%	4.2%
Last Place in Conference	22.8%	10.3%	25.3%

First Four	4.0%	6.6%	3.4%
First Round	2.4%	5.8%	1.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 8
Quad 4	8 - 11	8 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	174	Texas St.	L	57-67	16%
Nov 12, 2021	9	@ Baylor	L	54-86	0.1%
Nov 20, 2021	21	Texas Tech	L	52-79	1%
Nov 26, 2021	268	Southeast Missouri St.	L	67-72	35%
Nov 27, 2021	204	Montana St.	L	65-73	24%
Nov 28, 2021	307	Portland	L	73-75	42%
Dec 04, 2021	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	60-77	8%
Dec 11, 2021	312	Grambling St.	L	68-70	43%
Dec 16, 2021	173	@ Rice	L	65-81	9%
Dec 20, 2021	5	@ Purdue	L	51-84	0.4%
Dec 28, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	53-86	0.4%
Jan 15, 2022	342	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	67-71	39%
Jan 20, 2022	348	Houston Baptist	W	79-74	66%
Jan 22, 2022	331	McNeese St.	W	71-70	52%
Jan 27, 2022	338	@ Northwestern St.	L	71-76	35%
Jan 29, 2022	325	@ SE Louisiana	L	67-74	30%
Feb 03, 2022	230	Nicholls St.	L	70-77	30%
Feb 05, 2022	298	New Orleans	L	74-77	40%
Feb 10, 2022	230	@ Nicholls St.	L	67-80	16%
Feb 12, 2022	298	@ New Orleans	L	71-80	24%
Feb 17, 2022	338	Northwestern St.	W	74-73	54%
Feb 19, 2022	325	SE Louisiana	L	70-71	48%
Feb 24, 2022	348	@ Houston Baptist	L	76-77	46%
Feb 26, 2022	331	@ McNeese St.	L	68-73	34%
Mar 05, 2022	342	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	70-68	58%
Projected Record						8 - 17	6 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.4	1.2	1.7	1.3	0.6	0.1		5.4	1st
2nd								0.1	1.2	3.2	3.1	1.3	0.2				9.0	2nd
3rd							0.2	2.1	4.8	3.2	0.7	0.0					11.0	3rd
4th					0.0	0.3	3.2	6.0	3.2	0.4	0.0						13.0	4th
5th					0.5	3.9	7.0	2.9	0.3								14.6	5th
6th			0.0	1.0	4.9	7.1	2.5	0.2	0.0								15.8	6th
7th		0.2	2.1	6.0	5.7	2.0	0.1										16.2	7th
8th	1.7	4.0	5.2	3.3	0.9	0.1											15.0	8th

Total	1.7	4.2	7.4	10.3	12.0	13.3	13.0	11.3	9.5	7.2	5.1	3.0	1.5	0.6	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
13-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
12-2	86.8%	1.3		0.9	0.3	0.0
11-3	57.4%	1.7		0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0
10-4	24.1%	1.2		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0
9-5	5.3%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
8-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	5.4%	5.4		3.0	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	0.1%		55.8%	55.8%		15.2													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
13-1	0.6%		49.4%	49.4%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3
12-2	1.5%		36.9%	36.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9
11-3	3.0%		27.0%	27.0%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.7	2.2
10-4	5.1%		19.1%	19.1%		16.0															0.0	0.0	1.0	4.1
9-5	7.2%		11.6%	11.6%		16.0																0.0	0.8	6.3
8-6	9.5%		6.1%	6.1%		16.0																0.0	0.6	8.9
7-7	11.3%		3.4%	3.4%		16.0																	0.4	10.9
6-8	13.0%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	12.8
5-9	13.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	13.2
4-10	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
3-11	10.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
2-12	7.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
1-13	4.2%																							4.2
0-14	1.7%																							1.7

Total	100%		4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	15.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	4.5	95.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.8%