IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#172
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	77.1	#31
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#132

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.6	#228

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.0%	20.1%	9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.6	13.3	14.5

.500 or above	61.6%	76.5%	45.5%
.500 or above in Conference	70.1%	80.2%	59.3%
Conference Champion	18.1%	24.8%	10.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.0%	2.2%	8.1%

First Four	1.2%	1.1%	1.4%
First Round	14.5%	19.5%	9.1%
Second Round	2.0%	3.2%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 6	5 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 4	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	131	Old Dominion	W	76-75	52%
Nov 16, 2021	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	85-87	41%
Nov 19, 2021	169	George Mason	W	78-75	60%
Nov 22, 2021	132	Kent St.	L	79-81	42%
Nov 28, 2021	159	@ Florida Atlantic	L	75-78	39%
Dec 07, 2021	29	Virginia	L	60-69	22%
Dec 11, 2021	264	Radford	W	76-67	76%
Dec 21, 2021	256	@ Morgan St.	W	84-82	57%
Dec 28, 2021	187	@ Penn	L	76-78	44%
Dec 31, 2021	239	@ Towson	W	76-75	54%
Jan 03, 2022	181	@ Delaware	L	74-76	42%
Jan 05, 2022	175	@ Drexel	L	72-75	41%
Jan 09, 2022	192	Hofstra	W	81-77	63%
Jan 11, 2022	134	Northeastern	W	76-75	52%
Jan 15, 2022	295	@ William & Mary	W	79-75	63%
Jan 17, 2022	217	@ Elon	L	74-75	49%
Jan 20, 2022	266	UNC Wilmington	W	86-77	75%
Jan 22, 2022	235	College of Charleston	W	77-70	71%
Jan 27, 2022	175	Drexel	W	75-72	60%
Jan 29, 2022	181	Delaware	W	77-73	61%
Feb 03, 2022	134	@ Northeastern	L	73-78	33%
Feb 05, 2022	192	@ Hofstra	L	78-80	45%
Feb 10, 2022	217	Elon	W	78-72	68%
Feb 12, 2022	295	William & Mary	W	82-72	79%
Feb 17, 2022	235	@ College of Charleston	W	74-73	53%
Feb 19, 2022	266	@ UNC Wilmington	W	83-80	58%
Feb 26, 2022	239	Towson	W	79-72	72%
Projected Record						15 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.6	2.1	3.8	4.8	3.7	2.2	0.7		18.1	1st
2nd											0.2	1.3	3.8	5.2	3.5	1.3	0.2				15.5	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.6	4.7	4.6	2.0	0.4	0.0					13.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.9	4.6	3.9	1.1	0.1	0.0						11.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.8	4.3	3.1	0.7	0.0								10.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	1.9	4.0	2.5	0.5	0.0									9.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.8	3.2	2.1	0.4	0.0										7.7	7th
8th				0.0	0.5	1.6	2.5	1.4	0.2	0.0											6.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.7	0.8	0.2													4.8	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0													3.1	10th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	2.7	3.9	5.3	6.9	8.3	9.3	10.0	10.5	10.1	9.5	7.7	6.2	3.9	2.2	0.7			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	100.0%	2.2		2.1	0.1
16-2	94.6%	3.7		3.2	0.5
15-3	78.0%	4.8		3.4	1.3	0.1
14-4	49.6%	3.8		2.0	1.5	0.3	0.0
13-5	22.6%	2.1		0.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.7%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.1%	18.1		12.3	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		77.2%	65.6%	11.6%	9.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		33.7%
17-1	2.2%		62.6%	56.8%	5.8%	11.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.8		13.5%
16-2	3.9%		48.3%	45.5%	2.8%	12.6							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	2.0		5.1%
15-3	6.2%		39.0%	38.1%	0.9%	13.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.0	3.8		1.5%
14-4	7.7%		28.3%	28.2%	0.1%	13.8										0.0		0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1	5.5		0.2%
13-5	9.5%		22.2%	22.2%		14.3												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.2	7.4
12-6	10.1%		15.6%	15.6%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.3	8.5
11-7	10.5%		10.9%	10.9%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	9.4
10-8	10.0%		8.3%	8.3%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	9.2
9-9	9.3%		5.3%	5.3%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	8.8
8-10	8.3%		3.5%	3.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.0
7-11	6.9%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.8
6-12	5.3%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.3
5-13	3.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
4-14	2.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		15.0%	14.7%	0.4%	13.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.7	3.3	3.6	3.2	2.0	85.0		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	4.5	5.5	7.8	18.8	12.9	31.0	10.2	8.2	2.7	2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	76.5%	7.6					11.8	27.5	13.7			11.8		11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	74.1%	7.7						25.9		22.2	25.9
Lose Out	0.0%