Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#163
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.8% 8.0% 1.7%
#1 Seed 20.8% 27.4% 8.8%
Top 2 Seed 36.4% 46.4% 18.4%
Top 4 Seed 56.3% 67.8% 35.5%
Top 6 Seed 69.3% 80.0% 49.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.4% 93.2% 74.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.1% 90.6% 69.2%
Average Seed 4.0 3.5 5.2
.500 or above 93.4% 97.4% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 91.6% 77.4%
Conference Champion 30.5% 36.7% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four2.3% 1.5% 3.8%
First Round85.3% 92.6% 72.2%
Second Round69.4% 78.4% 53.1%
Sweet Sixteen45.5% 53.9% 30.5%
Elite Eight27.4% 33.8% 16.0%
Final Four15.8% 20.1% 8.1%
Championship Game8.8% 11.4% 4.0%
National Champion4.7% 6.2% 1.9%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Neutral) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 26 - 213 - 8
Quad 36 - 119 - 8
Quad 44 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 24   Michigan St. W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 12, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 78-57 97%    
  Nov 18, 2021 188   Stony Brook W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 25, 2021 123   North Texas W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 03, 2021 52   St. John's W 83-75 73%    
  Dec 07, 2021 163   UTEP W 80-60 95%    
  Dec 11, 2021 84   Missouri W 79-66 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 153   Stephen F. Austin W 83-64 94%    
  Dec 21, 2021 47   @ Colorado W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 29, 2021 160   Harvard W 82-62 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 80   TCU W 77-64 86%    
  Jan 04, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 11, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 82-65 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 32   West Virginia W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 18, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 24, 2022 21   Texas Tech W 72-65 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 14   Kentucky W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 01, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 9   Baylor W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 07, 2022 7   @ Texas L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 14, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 32   @ West Virginia W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 22, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 75-61 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 01, 2022 80   @ TCU W 74-67 72%    
  Mar 05, 2022 7   Texas W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.1 7.7 7.5 5.5 2.3 30.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.3 6.1 2.9 0.6 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.3 9.9 11.1 12.0 12.0 10.6 8.2 5.5 2.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-1 100.0% 5.5    5.3 0.2
16-2 92.3% 7.5    6.4 1.1 0.0
15-3 72.7% 7.7    5.1 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.3% 5.1    2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.5% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 22.1 6.8 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.3% 100.0% 70.0% 30.0% 1.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.5% 100.0% 58.8% 41.2% 1.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.2% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 1.4 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.6% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.8 4.9 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 29.8% 70.1% 2.5 2.8 4.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 12.0% 99.8% 23.1% 76.7% 3.4 1.1 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 11.1% 99.2% 16.9% 82.3% 4.6 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-7 9.9% 96.5% 11.4% 85.2% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.1%
10-8 8.3% 89.9% 7.8% 82.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 89.0%
9-9 6.5% 72.5% 5.5% 67.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 70.9%
8-10 5.0% 43.3% 3.7% 39.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 41.1%
7-11 3.4% 19.1% 1.8% 17.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 17.6%
6-12 2.5% 5.2% 1.1% 4.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 4.1%
5-13 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.6%
4-14 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.4% 23.7% 62.7% 4.0 20.8 15.6 11.0 8.8 7.0 6.0 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 82.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.6 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.4 16.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.6