Preseason Rankings
Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 2.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.7% 35.2% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 4.3% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.9 12.0 13.6
.500 or above 71.9% 89.7% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 92.2% 77.7%
Conference Champion 30.1% 44.0% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.6% 3.0%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.3%
First Round23.0% 34.3% 18.1%
Second Round4.4% 8.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 10
Quad 411 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 105   @ Colgate L 73-78 31%    
  Nov 12, 2021 121   @ Georgia St. L 72-76 36%    
  Nov 16, 2021 197   Boston University W 71-64 73%    
  Nov 19, 2021 162   Duquesne W 70-68 57%    
  Nov 27, 2021 160   @ Harvard L 69-70 46%    
  Nov 30, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 77-69 75%    
  Dec 03, 2021 105   Colgate W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 07, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 75-73 56%    
  Dec 12, 2021 98   Davidson L 65-66 50%    
  Dec 19, 2021 116   Vermont W 69-67 55%    
  Dec 22, 2021 28   St. Bonaventure L 62-69 28%    
  Dec 29, 2021 217   @ Elon W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 31, 2021 295   @ William & Mary W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 03, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 05, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 79-68 81%    
  Jan 09, 2022 239   @ Towson W 71-67 61%    
  Jan 11, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 175   Drexel W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 17, 2022 181   Delaware W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 192   Hofstra W 75-68 70%    
  Jan 27, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 03, 2022 172   James Madison W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 239   Towson W 74-64 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 192   @ Hofstra W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 24, 2022 295   William & Mary W 76-63 84%    
  Feb 26, 2022 217   Elon W 72-64 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 5.5 7.6 7.0 4.6 1.8 30.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.3 6.1 4.6 1.8 0.3 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.2 10.5 9.5 7.3 4.6 1.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 95.5% 7.0    6.2 0.8
15-3 80.6% 7.6    5.6 1.9 0.1
14-4 52.3% 5.5    3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.2% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 22.2 6.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 85.5% 73.5% 12.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 45.2%
17-1 4.6% 69.1% 59.4% 9.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 23.7%
16-2 7.3% 54.3% 49.5% 4.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 9.6%
15-3 9.5% 41.9% 40.2% 1.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.5 2.7%
14-4 10.5% 33.5% 33.0% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 7.0 0.8%
13-5 11.2% 23.7% 23.7% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 8.5 0.1%
12-6 11.0% 18.3% 18.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 9.0
11-7 10.1% 11.9% 11.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 8.9
10-8 8.9% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 8.0
9-9 7.3% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.9
8-10 5.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
7-11 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.7% 22.5% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 4.1 5.9 4.8 3.3 1.7 76.3 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.4 9.3 19.6 22.9 27.4 14.2 3.7 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 21.3 22.3 36.2 7.4 6.4 6.4
Lose Out 0.0%