Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#338
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#63
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#313
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#344
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 23.4% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 10.0% 51.7% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 84.6% 48.3%
Conference Champion 8.6% 29.3% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 1.3% 16.2%
First Four6.3% 12.8% 6.2%
First Round3.8% 16.3% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 48 - 98 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 40   @ Oklahoma L 61-87 1%    
  Nov 10, 2021 108   @ Tulsa L 62-81 4%    
  Nov 15, 2021 62   @ SMU L 67-91 2%    
  Nov 19, 2021 93   Louisiana Tech L 69-84 10%    
  Nov 22, 2021 269   Louisiana Monroe L 71-77 30%    
  Nov 28, 2021 153   Stephen F. Austin L 72-82 21%    
  Nov 30, 2021 13   @ Houston L 56-86 1%    
  Dec 04, 2021 269   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-78 23%    
  Dec 14, 2021 36   @ LSU L 69-96 1%    
  Dec 21, 2021 94   @ Texas A&M L 62-82 5%    
  Dec 28, 2021 9   @ Baylor L 61-92 1%    
  Jan 15, 2022 325   @ SE Louisiana L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 20, 2022 230   @ Nicholls St. L 76-87 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 298   @ New Orleans L 80-87 27%    
  Jan 27, 2022 345   Incarnate Word W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 342   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 03, 2022 348   @ Houston Baptist W 85-84 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 331   @ McNeese St. L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 348   Houston Baptist W 88-82 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 345   @ Incarnate Word L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 342   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 230   Nicholls St. L 79-84 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 298   New Orleans L 83-84 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 325   SE Louisiana W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.3 1.8 0.2 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.6 4.2 1.1 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.3 6.8 3.8 0.6 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.9 3.5 0.3 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.2 2.5 0.2 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.8 1.7 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.8 2.4 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 10.1 8th
Total 0.8 2.5 5.2 7.7 10.2 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.2 9.1 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
12-2 90.0% 2.3    1.7 0.5 0.0
11-3 59.3% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-4 25.2% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
9-5 4.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 60.7% 60.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-1 1.1% 48.2% 48.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6
12-2 2.5% 40.2% 40.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5
11-3 4.5% 29.6% 29.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2
10-4 7.1% 21.1% 21.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 5.6
9-5 9.1% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2 7.9
8-6 11.2% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.8 10.3
7-7 12.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 12.3
6-8 13.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.8
5-9 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.9
4-10 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.1
3-11 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-12 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.2
1-13 2.5% 2.5
0-14 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.0 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%