Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.3#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.2% 4.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 9.7% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 20.4% 21.2% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 31.5% 32.6% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.6% 57.2% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.8% 53.4% 18.1%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 8.0
.500 or above 74.3% 76.0% 35.5%
.500 or above in Conference 58.0% 59.4% 28.0%
Conference Champion 8.7% 9.0% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 5.3% 18.1%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 3.2%
First Round53.9% 55.5% 17.7%
Second Round35.9% 37.1% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen18.1% 18.8% 3.8%
Elite Eight8.7% 9.0% 1.2%
Final Four4.0% 4.1% 0.5%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 35 - 114 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 224   Texas Arlington W 84-66 96%    
  Nov 12, 2021 221   Oakland W 88-70 95%    
  Nov 14, 2021 232   Prairie View W 84-65 95%    
  Nov 16, 2021 258   Umass Lowell W 86-69 93%    
  Nov 17, 2021 59   North Carolina St. W 76-73 59%    
  Nov 22, 2021 235   College of Charleston W 81-62 94%    
  Nov 26, 2021 154   @ Oral Roberts W 86-78 76%    
  Dec 01, 2021 54   Wichita St. W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 05, 2021 37   Xavier W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 13, 2021 151   Cleveland St. W 81-67 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 13   Houston L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 21, 2021 20   USC L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 01, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 04, 2022 4   Kansas L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 7   Texas L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 32   @ West Virginia L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 72-79 28%    
  Jan 19, 2022 80   TCU W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 7   @ Texas L 72-79 28%    
  Jan 26, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 83-71 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 33   @ Florida L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 02, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 08, 2022 80   @ TCU W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 32   West Virginia W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 14, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 72-80 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 21, 2022 9   Baylor L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 02, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 80-74 68%    
  Mar 05, 2022 21   Texas Tech W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.6 2.7 1.0 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.1 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.7% 1.8    1.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 71.0% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.7% 2.2    1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.2% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 5.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 63.5% 36.5% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.9% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.4% 99.9% 31.9% 68.1% 2.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 5.3% 99.9% 24.3% 75.6% 3.0 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 7.1% 99.4% 16.7% 82.7% 4.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-6 8.6% 98.0% 11.6% 86.4% 5.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-7 9.7% 92.9% 7.8% 85.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.3%
10-8 10.3% 80.7% 5.1% 75.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 79.7%
9-9 10.7% 61.1% 3.9% 57.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 59.5%
8-10 10.3% 31.5% 2.3% 29.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 29.9%
7-11 9.2% 12.0% 0.9% 11.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 11.2%
6-12 7.7% 3.2% 0.6% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 2.6%
5-13 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.3%
4-14 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.3 0.1%
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.6% 7.9% 47.7% 6.0 4.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.5 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 51.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.6 16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0