Preseason Rankings
Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#105
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#307
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.6% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 41.0% 51.0% 20.5%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 55.1% 31.4%
Conference Champion 4.3% 5.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 5.3% 13.9%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round4.1% 5.2% 1.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 412 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 78-73 67%    
  Nov 19, 2021 106   @ Minnesota L 71-83 14%    
  Nov 26, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 79-74 67%    
  Nov 27, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 28, 2021 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 76-81 35%    
  Dec 02, 2021 115   Wright St. L 76-82 31%    
  Dec 04, 2021 166   Northern Kentucky L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 08, 2021 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 76-73 58%    
  Dec 11, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-74 62%    
  Dec 21, 2021 2   @ Michigan L 61-87 2%    
  Dec 30, 2021 253   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 01, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 82-78 61%    
  Jan 05, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 70-79 24%    
  Jan 07, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 09, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 13, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 221   Oakland W 80-79 54%    
  Jan 21, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 79-74 64%    
  Jan 23, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 79-74 64%    
  Jan 28, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 30, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 73-85 18%    
  Feb 04, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 06, 2022 316   Green Bay W 79-72 70%    
  Feb 10, 2022 333   IUPUI W 85-75 77%    
  Feb 12, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 14, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 18, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 20, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-81 32%    
  Feb 24, 2022 221   @ Oakland L 77-82 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 76-81 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 12th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.0 6.1 7.3 8.3 8.8 9.0 9.0 8.3 7.3 6.5 5.3 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
20-2 95.8% 0.6    0.6 0.1
19-3 80.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
18-4 55.3% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
17-5 31.5% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-6 10.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 63.6% 54.5% 9.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0%
21-1 0.2% 55.5% 51.1% 4.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0%
20-2 0.6% 42.1% 40.4% 1.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.9%
19-3 1.2% 32.7% 32.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
18-4 1.9% 24.4% 24.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
17-5 2.9% 20.4% 20.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
16-6 4.0% 13.4% 13.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.5
15-7 5.3% 9.7% 9.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.8
14-8 6.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.0
13-9 7.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.9
12-10 8.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
11-11 9.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.8
10-12 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
9-13 8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.8
8-14 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
7-15 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-16 6.1% 6.1
5-17 5.0% 5.0
4-18 3.7% 3.7
3-19 2.4% 2.4
2-20 1.4% 1.4
1-21 0.6% 0.6
0-22 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%