Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
America East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.0#262
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#241
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 22.5% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 67.8% 86.2% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 88.3% 71.1%
Conference Champion 18.6% 28.5% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four1.7% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round14.4% 21.9% 10.5%
Second Round1.6% 3.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 169   @ George Mason L 66-70 34%    
  Nov 18, 2021 4   @ Kansas L 59-80 3%    
  Nov 22, 2021 288   Sacred Heart W 73-64 78%    
  Nov 24, 2021 260   @ Fairfield W 63-62 54%    
  Nov 28, 2021 126   @ Yale L 66-73 28%    
  Dec 01, 2021 259   American W 70-63 72%    
  Dec 04, 2021 228   Wagner W 70-64 67%    
  Dec 08, 2021 192   Hofstra W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 11, 2021 206   Bryant W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 14, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 80-64 90%    
  Dec 18, 2021 191   St. Peter's W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 22, 2021 33   @ Florida L 61-77 9%    
  Jan 02, 2022 213   @ Hartford L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 05, 2022 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-65 67%    
  Jan 08, 2022 337   Maine W 69-55 86%    
  Jan 12, 2022 116   @ Vermont L 63-71 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 241   New Hampshire W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 19, 2022 327   @ Binghamton W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 244   @ Albany W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 26, 2022 116   Vermont L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 241   @ New Hampshire W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 02, 2022 327   Binghamton W 74-62 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 293   @ NJIT W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 09, 2022 258   Umass Lowell W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 13, 2022 337   @ Maine W 66-58 72%    
  Feb 16, 2022 229   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 213   Hartford W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 258   @ Umass Lowell W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 244   Albany W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 01, 2022 293   NJIT W 72-63 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 4.9 4.5 2.8 0.9 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.9 5.1 2.4 0.5 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 5.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.4 1.5 0.2 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.7 7.4 8.8 9.8 11.1 11.5 10.4 9.4 7.3 5.1 2.8 0.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.6 0.1
16-2 90.0% 4.5    3.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 66.8% 4.9    3.2 1.6 0.1
14-4 38.4% 3.6    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 13.9% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 12.6 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 73.0% 68.1% 4.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15.4%
17-1 2.8% 54.1% 52.3% 1.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 3.7%
16-2 5.1% 44.7% 44.3% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.8 0.8%
15-3 7.3% 34.7% 34.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 4.8 0.0%
14-4 9.4% 25.7% 25.7% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 7.0
13-5 10.4% 17.9% 17.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 8.5
12-6 11.5% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 9.9
11-7 11.1% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 10.1
10-8 9.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1
9-9 8.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.4
8-10 7.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.2
7-11 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.2% 15.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.8 4.1 3.3 84.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 25.0 61.5 13.5