Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#307
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.1% 10.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 22.1% 22.4% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 34.0% 34.4% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.1% 62.7% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.2% 57.9% 17.3%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 8.3
.500 or above 89.7% 90.3% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.2% 69.8% 33.0%
Conference Champion 13.2% 13.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.4% 17.1%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 3.1%
First Round60.6% 61.2% 17.8%
Second Round42.4% 42.9% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen22.5% 22.8% 3.7%
Elite Eight11.5% 11.7% 1.4%
Final Four5.9% 5.9% 0.5%
Championship Game2.9% 2.9% 0.2%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.2%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 24 - 29 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 280   North Florida W 81-58 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 80-55 99%    
  Nov 15, 2021 232   Prairie View W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 20, 2021 345   Incarnate Word W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 23, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 84-57 99%    
  Nov 27, 2021 308   Lamar W 80-55 98%    
  Dec 01, 2021 65   @ Providence W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 07, 2021 23   Tennessee W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 14, 2021 194   Arkansas St. W 77-59 93%    
  Dec 18, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 72-80 27%    
  Dec 22, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 82-63 94%    
  Dec 28, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 83-50 99.6%   
  Jan 01, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 73-65 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 4   Kansas L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 11, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 15, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 18, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 76-62 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 32   West Virginia W 72-67 64%    
  Jan 24, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 65-72 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 01, 2022 7   Texas W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 32   @ West Virginia L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 09, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 80   TCU W 71-61 78%    
  Feb 16, 2022 9   Baylor W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 7   @ Texas L 65-71 33%    
  Feb 22, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 80   @ TCU W 68-64 61%    
  Feb 28, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 68-58 79%    
  Mar 05, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.5 13.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.8 3.9 1.5 0.3 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.3 2.9 0.8 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.9 9.9 11.0 11.1 10.1 9.2 7.4 5.2 3.3 1.5 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 91.5% 3.0    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 70.0% 3.6    2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.6% 2.9    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.4 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 59.9% 40.1% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.2% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 2.6 1.1 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.4% 99.8% 25.5% 74.4% 3.7 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 9.2% 99.0% 18.0% 81.1% 5.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
12-6 10.1% 96.1% 12.9% 83.2% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.5%
11-7 11.1% 87.7% 8.1% 79.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 86.6%
10-8 11.0% 73.0% 5.7% 67.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.0 71.4%
9-9 9.9% 49.6% 4.0% 45.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.0 47.4%
8-10 8.9% 23.2% 2.7% 20.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 21.0%
7-11 7.3% 6.8% 1.3% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 5.6%
6-12 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 1.2%
5-13 4.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.4%
4-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.1% 11.4% 50.7% 6.1 4.6 5.4 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.2 5.1 4.5 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 57.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 61.7 38.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.6 23.4