IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.3	#258
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.4	#121
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.8	#237

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#287

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.2%	12.9%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.3	15.2

.500 or above	40.0%	73.7%	36.5%
.500 or above in Conference	51.3%	75.9%	48.8%
Conference Champion	6.5%	15.7%	5.6%
Last Place in Conference	9.4%	2.3%	10.1%

First Four	1.6%	1.4%	1.6%
First Round	5.4%	12.1%	4.7%
Second Round	0.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 7	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	63-77	9%
Nov 16, 2021	35	Oklahoma St.	L	69-86	7%
Nov 17, 2021	346	Central Connecticut St.	W	82-73	78%
Nov 19, 2021	238	@ George Washington	L	73-77	37%
Nov 24, 2021	119	@ Massachusetts	L	72-84	17%
Dec 01, 2021	237	Brown	W	72-70	55%
Dec 04, 2021	234	@ Merrimack	L	66-70	36%
Dec 08, 2021	197	@ Boston University	L	68-75	29%
Dec 19, 2021	288	Sacred Heart	W	76-71	65%
Dec 21, 2021	254	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	78-81	40%
Dec 23, 2021	320	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	84-77	71%
Jan 02, 2022	327	@ Binghamton	W	73-71	56%
Jan 06, 2022	293	NJIT	W	75-70	65%
Jan 08, 2022	229	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	70-75	35%
Jan 12, 2022	244	@ Albany	L	72-76	38%
Jan 15, 2022	213	Hartford	W	72-71	51%
Jan 19, 2022	337	Maine	W	71-62	77%
Jan 22, 2022	241	@ New Hampshire	L	69-73	38%
Jan 26, 2022	244	Albany	W	75-73	57%
Jan 29, 2022	213	@ Hartford	L	68-74	33%
Feb 02, 2022	337	@ Maine	W	68-65	61%
Feb 05, 2022	116	Vermont	L	69-75	31%
Feb 09, 2022	188	@ Stony Brook	L	67-74	29%
Feb 12, 2022	229	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	73-72	54%
Feb 16, 2022	293	@ NJIT	L	72-73	46%
Feb 19, 2022	327	Binghamton	W	76-68	73%
Feb 23, 2022	188	Stony Brook	L	70-71	47%
Feb 26, 2022	116	@ Vermont	L	66-78	17%
Mar 01, 2022	241	New Hampshire	W	72-70	57%
Projected Record						13 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.5	1.9	1.3	0.6	0.1		6.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.7	2.4	3.1	2.4	0.9	0.1				9.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.4	3.6	3.7	1.7	0.3	0.0					10.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.2	4.4	3.6	1.1	0.1							11.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.7	5.0	3.3	0.8	0.0								12.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	2.9	5.2	2.8	0.6	0.0									12.2	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.9	3.2	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0										11.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.3	3.6	3.8	1.6	0.2	0.0											10.6	8th
9th		0.1	0.5	1.8	3.0	2.5	1.0	0.1	0.0												8.9	9th
10th	0.3	0.9	1.5	1.7	1.0	0.3	0.0														5.8	10th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.0	3.7	5.3	7.3	8.7	9.8	10.7	10.5	9.8	8.7	7.4	5.8	4.2	2.7	1.5	0.6	0.1			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.5	0.0
16-2	90.8%	1.3		1.1	0.2
15-3	67.9%	1.9		1.2	0.6	0.0	0.0
14-4	36.9%	1.5		0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	15.4%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.5%	6.5		3.9	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		61.5%	57.9%	3.6%	11.9					0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		8.5%
17-1	0.6%		50.6%	49.3%	1.3%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3		2.5%
16-2	1.5%		37.9%	37.8%	0.2%	13.8												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.9		0.3%
15-3	2.7%		28.8%	28.7%	0.1%	14.3													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	1.9		0.1%
14-4	4.2%		19.8%	19.8%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	3.4
13-5	5.8%		16.9%	16.9%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	4.8
12-6	7.4%		10.9%	10.9%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	6.6
11-7	8.7%		7.1%	7.1%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	8.1
10-8	9.8%		4.8%	4.8%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.3
9-9	10.5%		3.5%	3.5%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	10.1
8-10	10.7%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.2	10.5
7-11	9.8%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	9.7
6-12	8.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
5-13	7.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
4-14	5.3%																							5.3
3-15	3.7%																							3.7
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		6.2%	6.1%	0.0%	15.0					0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.6	2.8	93.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%