Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#266
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.5#97
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#304
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 7.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 31.5% 53.9% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 50.3% 25.9%
Conference Champion 3.8% 7.4% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 11.4% 27.2%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round3.4% 6.7% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 410 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 223   @ Illinois St. L 73-78 31%    
  Nov 16, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 69-81 14%    
  Nov 18, 2021 190   Coastal Carolina L 78-79 45%    
  Nov 20, 2021 354   @ Delaware St. W 89-78 83%    
  Nov 24, 2021 195   Southern Miss L 70-74 37%    
  Nov 25, 2021 161   @ Montana L 68-77 22%    
  Nov 26, 2021 263   UC San Diego L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 01, 2021 291   Norfolk St. W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 11, 2021 302   @ Jacksonville L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 18, 2021 299   @ High Point L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 22, 2021 200   Campbell L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 29, 2021 181   Delaware L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 31, 2021 175   Drexel L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 03, 2022 192   @ Hofstra L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 05, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 68-79 19%    
  Jan 09, 2022 295   William & Mary W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 11, 2022 217   Elon W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 17, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 20, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 77-86 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 239   @ Towson L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 27, 2022 134   Northeastern L 71-76 35%    
  Jan 29, 2022 192   Hofstra L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 217   @ Elon L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 295   @ William & Mary L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 17, 2022 239   Towson W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 172   James Madison L 80-83 42%    
  Feb 24, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 67-76 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 69-77 26%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 4.3 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.0 4.2 1.5 0.2 14.9 9th
10th 1.1 3.0 4.2 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 15.6 10th
Total 1.1 3.1 5.1 7.2 9.1 10.2 10.5 10.6 9.7 8.7 7.5 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 94.2% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 81.5% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.1% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 76.7% 59.5% 17.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.4%
17-1 0.2% 41.7% 38.7% 3.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0%
16-2 0.6% 41.0% 39.0% 1.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.2%
15-3 1.1% 32.1% 31.9% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.3%
14-4 2.0% 22.8% 22.7% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5 0.2%
13-5 3.1% 16.4% 16.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.6
12-6 4.4% 12.3% 12.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.8
11-7 5.8% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.3
10-8 7.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.1
9-9 8.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.4
8-10 9.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.5
7-11 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 10.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.5
5-13 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-14 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-16 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
1-17 3.1% 3.1
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.3 17.6 41.2 20.6 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 70.0% 7.0 70.0
Lose Out 0.2%