IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.8	#116
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.2	#278
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	1.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	2.7%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	38.1%	49.0%	31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.2%	3.1%	0.4%
Average Seed	13.2	12.4	13.8

.500 or above	86.1%	95.8%	80.5%
.500 or above in Conference	94.2%	98.0%	92.0%
Conference Champion	50.1%	63.0%	42.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%

First Four	1.9%	1.4%	2.1%
First Round	37.2%	48.3%	30.9%
Second Round	7.2%	12.0%	4.5%
Sweet Sixteen	2.2%	4.0%	1.2%
Elite Eight	0.5%	1.1%	0.2%
Final Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 7
Quad 4	15 - 3	21 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2021	107	@ Northern Iowa	L	69-73	36%
Nov 13, 2021	16	@ Maryland	L	59-72	12%
Nov 19, 2021	126	Yale	W	72-68	63%
Nov 22, 2021	221	Oakland	W	77-70	72%
Nov 27, 2021	149	@ UNC Greensboro	L	68-69	48%
Dec 01, 2021	270	Dartmouth	W	74-61	86%
Dec 07, 2021	65	@ Providence	L	63-71	26%
Dec 10, 2021	237	@ Brown	W	70-65	65%
Dec 19, 2021	134	@ Northeastern	L	67-69	45%
Dec 22, 2021	105	Colgate	W	76-74	56%
Jan 02, 2022	244	Albany	W	75-64	82%
Jan 05, 2022	241	New Hampshire	W	72-61	82%
Jan 08, 2022	213	@ Hartford	W	68-65	61%
Jan 12, 2022	188	Stony Brook	W	71-63	74%
Jan 15, 2022	229	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	70-66	64%
Jan 19, 2022	293	@ NJIT	W	72-64	73%
Jan 22, 2022	213	Hartford	W	71-62	78%
Jan 26, 2022	188	@ Stony Brook	W	68-66	56%
Jan 29, 2022	337	Maine	W	72-53	93%
Feb 02, 2022	293	NJIT	W	75-61	86%
Feb 05, 2022	258	@ Umass Lowell	W	75-69	69%
Feb 09, 2022	327	Binghamton	W	77-60	91%
Feb 12, 2022	244	@ Albany	W	72-67	66%
Feb 16, 2022	241	@ New Hampshire	W	69-64	66%
Feb 19, 2022	229	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	73-63	80%
Feb 23, 2022	327	@ Binghamton	W	74-63	80%
Feb 26, 2022	258	Umass Lowell	W	78-66	83%
Mar 01, 2022	337	@ Maine	W	69-56	83%
Projected Record						19 - 9	14 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.5	6.4	10.8	12.8	11.0	6.0		50.1	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	3.3	6.3	6.2	3.2	0.7				20.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.8	3.0	4.0	2.6	0.7	0.0					11.2	3rd
4th									0.1	0.7	2.2	2.7	1.2	0.1	0.0						7.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	1.7	0.6	0.0								4.6	5th
6th							0.1	0.3	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0									2.9	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0										1.9	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0											1.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.5	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.2	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.5	3.5	5.1	7.2	9.0	11.5	13.3	14.1	13.5	11.0	6.0			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	6.0		6.0
17-1	100.0%	11.0		10.7	0.3
16-2	94.7%	12.8		11.1	1.6	0.0
15-3	77.0%	10.8		7.6	3.0	0.2	0.0
14-4	48.5%	6.4		3.4	2.6	0.5	0.0
13-5	21.6%	2.5		0.7	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.1%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	50.1%	50.1		39.6	8.8	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	6.0%		81.4%	76.3%	5.1%	10.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0		1.1		21.7%
17-1	11.0%		67.9%	65.0%	2.9%	12.3					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	2.1	2.4	1.2	0.3	0.0	3.5		8.2%
16-2	13.5%		56.6%	55.7%	0.9%	13.2							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.6	2.8	2.1	0.7	0.1	5.9		2.0%
15-3	14.1%		44.5%	44.4%	0.2%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.7	1.9	2.2	1.2	0.2	7.8		0.3%
14-4	13.3%		35.7%	35.6%	0.0%	14.2											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.6	0.5	8.5		0.0%
13-5	11.5%		27.6%	27.6%		14.6													0.1	0.3	0.9	1.2	0.6	8.3
12-6	9.0%		20.1%	20.1%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	7.2
11-7	7.2%		14.7%	14.7%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	6.1
10-8	5.1%		10.2%	10.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	4.5
9-9	3.5%		7.8%	7.8%		15.8																0.1	0.2	3.2
8-10	2.5%		5.1%	5.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	2.3
7-11	1.5%		3.9%	3.9%		16.0																	0.1	1.5
6-12	1.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
5-13	0.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.5
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		38.1%	37.3%	0.8%	13.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.6	5.6	9.4	8.7	6.3	3.4	61.9		1.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	3.8	6.2	12.8	25.8	27.0	18.4	7.8	0.8				0.7	0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	86.5%	7.2			11.5			23.1	26.9		13.5			11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	58.8%	7.7							20.6	38.2