IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.3	#295
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.0	#186
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#266

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.3%	6.0%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.3	15.1

.500 or above	17.9%	47.5%	15.4%
.500 or above in Conference	23.8%	47.2%	21.8%
Conference Champion	2.2%	7.0%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	31.3%	12.8%	32.9%

First Four	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
First Round	2.0%	5.6%	1.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2021	103	@ Wake Forest	L	63-78	8%
Nov 12, 2021	259	American	W	69-68	54%
Nov 16, 2021	291	@ Norfolk St.	L	68-71	39%
Nov 20, 2021	121	Georgia St.	L	70-80	18%
Nov 24, 2021	264	@ Radford	L	64-69	34%
Dec 01, 2021	184	@ Navy	L	64-73	22%
Dec 04, 2021	98	@ Davidson	L	59-75	10%
Dec 07, 2021	131	Old Dominion	L	66-73	29%
Dec 09, 2021	329	Hampton	W	78-72	70%
Dec 12, 2021	260	Fairfield	W	65-64	53%
Dec 22, 2021	189	@ Valparaiso	L	65-74	23%
Dec 29, 2021	192	Hofstra	L	71-74	41%
Dec 31, 2021	134	Northeastern	L	66-73	30%
Jan 05, 2022	217	@ Elon	L	65-72	28%
Jan 09, 2022	266	@ UNC Wilmington	L	72-77	35%
Jan 11, 2022	235	@ College of Charleston	L	65-71	30%
Jan 15, 2022	172	James Madison	L	75-79	37%
Jan 17, 2022	239	Towson	W	70-69	50%
Jan 20, 2022	181	@ Delaware	L	64-74	23%
Jan 22, 2022	175	@ Drexel	L	63-73	21%
Jan 29, 2022	217	Elon	L	68-69	46%
Feb 03, 2022	235	College of Charleston	L	67-68	49%
Feb 05, 2022	266	UNC Wilmington	W	75-74	54%
Feb 10, 2022	239	@ Towson	L	67-73	32%
Feb 12, 2022	172	@ James Madison	L	72-82	21%
Feb 17, 2022	175	Drexel	L	66-70	37%
Feb 19, 2022	181	Delaware	L	67-71	38%
Feb 24, 2022	134	@ Northeastern	L	63-76	16%
Feb 26, 2022	192	@ Hofstra	L	68-77	24%
Projected Record						10 - 19	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.2	0.4	0.0						4.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	2.6	1.5	0.3	0.0							6.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.1	3.3	1.6	0.3	0.0								7.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	2.5	3.9	1.8	0.3	0.0									9.0	6th
7th					0.1	0.9	3.7	4.6	2.2	0.2	0.0										11.8	7th
8th				0.3	1.9	4.6	5.1	2.1	0.2												14.2	8th
9th		0.1	1.2	3.7	6.1	4.8	1.8	0.2	0.0												17.8	9th
10th	2.0	4.8	6.3	5.7	3.1	0.9	0.1	0.0													22.9	10th

Total	2.0	4.9	7.5	9.7	11.1	11.4	11.3	9.8	8.6	7.0	5.7	4.3	2.9	1.9	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	96.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	79.7%	0.5		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	52.2%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	27.0%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		54.8%	54.8%		10.2						0.0				0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		48.5%	46.4%	2.1%	12.3								0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		3.9%
16-2	0.3%		39.5%	38.8%	0.7%	13.0									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		1.2%
15-3	0.6%		30.0%	29.2%	0.8%	13.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4		1.2%
14-4	1.0%		20.3%	20.3%		14.3											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.8
13-5	1.9%		15.3%	15.1%	0.1%	14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.6		0.1%
12-6	2.9%		9.9%	9.9%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.6
11-7	4.3%		8.0%	8.0%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	4.0
10-8	5.7%		4.6%	4.6%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.4
9-9	7.0%		3.3%	3.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	6.8
8-10	8.6%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.5
7-11	9.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																0.0	0.1	9.7
6-12	11.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.0	11.2
5-13	11.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
4-14	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
3-15	9.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
2-16	7.5%																							7.5
1-17	4.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
0-18	2.0%																							2.0

Total	100%		2.3%	2.3%	0.0%	15.0						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.0	97.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%