Louisiana
Sun Belt
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#112
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#70
Pace72.6#73
Improvement+0.6#119

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#77
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#38
Layup/Dunks+3.0#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#268
Freethrows-0.2#185
Improvement+0.4#103

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#169
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#113
Layups/Dunks+1.5#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows-1.8#308
Improvement+0.1#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 13.9% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 45.6% 51.0% 25.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round13.0% 13.8% 10.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 19 - 5
Quad 411 - 220 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 157   Harvard W 75-61 62%     1 - 0 +14.5 +8.8 +6.3
  Nov 13, 2022 223   East Tennessee St. W 81-77 73%     2 - 0 +1.0 +3.9 -3.0
  Nov 17, 2022 137   Louisiana Tech W 94-88 67%     3 - 0 +5.0 +13.7 -9.1
  Nov 22, 2022 167   @ SMU W 76-72 OT 52%     4 - 0 +6.8 -1.1 +7.6
  Nov 26, 2022 84   @ Drake L 64-76 30%     4 - 1 -3.2 -5.5 +2.8
  Dec 03, 2022 348   @ New Orleans W 78-77 88%     5 - 1 -8.5 -4.1 -4.4
  Dec 10, 2022 145   Samford W 75-58 68%     6 - 1 +15.6 +4.3 +12.7
  Dec 15, 2022 339   @ McNeese St. W 78-70 86%     7 - 1 -0.3 +2.2 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2022 10   @ Texas L 72-100 9%     7 - 2 -9.5 -0.4 -6.0
  Dec 29, 2022 246   @ Coastal Carolina L 76-77 69%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -2.7 +0.2 -2.9
  Dec 31, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion L 66-70 54%     7 - 4 0 - 2 -1.5 -4.0 +2.5
  Jan 05, 2023 111   Southern Miss W 75-61 60%     8 - 4 1 - 2 +14.8 +9.2 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 78-70 82%     9 - 4 2 - 2 +1.6 +8.8 -6.8
  Jan 12, 2023 265   @ Louisiana Monroe W 86-73 73%     10 - 4 3 - 2 +10.2 +8.0 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2023 182   @ South Alabama W 79-76 55%     11 - 4 4 - 2 +5.2 +8.6 -3.4
  Jan 19, 2023 311   @ Arkansas St. W 80-71 80%     12 - 4 5 - 2 +3.6 +8.9 -4.8
  Jan 21, 2023 209   @ Texas St. W 60-51 61%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +9.7 -1.4 +12.5
  Jan 26, 2023 149   Troy W 72-57 69%     14 - 4 7 - 2 +13.2 +7.6 +7.2
  Jan 28, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 94-87 81%     15 - 4 8 - 2 +1.2 +18.2 -17.0
  Feb 02, 2023 209   Texas St. W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 78   Marshall L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 09, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 149   @ Troy L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 16, 2023 265   Louisiana Monroe W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 18, 2023 96   @ James Madison L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 22, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 76-62 91%    
  Feb 24, 2023 182   South Alabama W 76-69 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 12.0 19.5 10.7 2.0 45.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 7.4 13.8 3.9 0.2 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 10.2 3.5 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.7 2.5 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.5 9.8 21.6 29.4 23.5 10.9 2.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.0    2.0
15-3 98.4% 10.7    9.6 1.1 0.0
14-4 83.3% 19.5    11.5 7.1 1.0 0.0
13-5 40.8% 12.0    2.8 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 6.4% 1.4    0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.6% 45.6 25.9 13.8 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.0% 29.3% 21.3% 8.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 10.1%
15-3 10.9% 19.6% 19.2% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.7 0.5%
14-4 23.5% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.1 19.8 0.0%
13-5 29.4% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 25.7 0.0%
12-6 21.6% 9.8% 9.8% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 19.5
11-7 9.8% 8.0% 8.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.0
10-8 2.5% 5.3% 5.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
9-9 0.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 12.9% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.2 5.2 1.5 0.1 86.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 29.3% 11.2 0.2 2.7 17.0 8.6 0.8