Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24

Last Updated: Dec 9, 2022
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Connecticut Auto 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 100.0%
Purdue Auto 99.9% 20.1% 79.8% 99.9%
Houston Auto 99.9% 69.8% 30.2% 99.8%
Tennessee Auto 99.6% 25.5% 74.1% 99.5%
Texas Auto 97.8% 22.2% 75.6% 97.1%
Kansas At-Large 96.9% 16.4% 80.5% 96.3%
Alabama At-Large 96.9% 15.4% 81.5% 96.4%
UCLA Auto 98.0% 33.0% 65.0% 96.9%
Illinois At-Large 98.3% 16.1% 82.2% 98.0%
Indiana At-Large 95.9% 12.1% 83.8% 95.3%
Maryland At-Large 97.7% 12.5% 85.2% 97.3%
Duke Auto 98.9% 25.0% 73.9% 98.5%
Baylor At-Large 93.2% 13.7% 79.5% 92.1%
West Virginia At-Large 91.6% 14.8% 76.8% 90.2%
Virginia At-Large 97.4% 18.6% 78.8% 96.9%
Gonzaga Auto 98.0% 53.4% 44.5% 95.6%
Arizona At-Large 96.6% 22.3% 74.3% 95.6%
Arkansas At-Large 93.8% 13.0% 80.8% 92.9%
Auburn At-Large 90.4% 9.4% 81.0% 89.4%
Ohio St. At-Large 81.3% 7.5% 73.8% 79.8%
Iowa At-Large 84.4% 7.7% 76.7% 83.1%
Creighton At-Large 87.2% 13.6% 73.5% 85.1%
Kentucky At-Large 87.5% 12.9% 74.6% 85.7%
Mississippi St. At-Large 87.5% 8.4% 79.1% 86.3%
Xavier At-Large 82.9% 11.9% 71.0% 80.6%
Wisconsin At-Large 76.5% 5.2% 71.3% 75.2%
Iowa St. At-Large 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 56.5%
Marquette At-Large 73.8% 10.0% 63.8% 70.9%
Rutgers At-Large 70.1% 6.2% 63.9% 68.1%
Oklahoma At-Large 51.2% 5.4% 45.8% 48.4%
North Carolina At-Large 74.6% 13.3% 61.3% 70.7%
Arizona St. At-Large 71.3% 8.6% 62.8% 68.7%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. Auto 82.5% 24.3% 58.2% 76.9%
Miami (FL) At-Large 74.3% 8.8% 65.5% 71.8%
Virginia Tech At-Large 66.1% 7.9% 58.2% 63.2%
Utah At-Large 54.0% 8.6% 45.4% 49.7%
10  St. Mary's At-Large 75.4% 28.4% 47.0% 65.7%
10  Memphis At-Large 68.2% 14.5% 53.6% 62.7%
10  Utah St. At-Large 71.0% 20.6% 50.5% 63.5%
10  North Carolina St. At-Large 52.8% 8.0% 44.8% 48.7%
11  New Mexico At-Large 56.3% 13.6% 42.7% 49.4%
11  Texas Tech At-Large 50.2% 6.4% 43.8% 46.8%
11  St. John's At-Large 48.8% 5.6% 43.2% 45.8%
11  Oklahoma St. At-Large 48.4% 6.2% 42.2% 45.0%
11  Michigan St. At-Large 47.5% 3.6% 43.9% 45.5%
11  Florida Atlantic Auto 62.6% 33.0% 29.5% 44.1%
12  Saint Louis Auto 49.1% 29.1% 19.9% 28.1%
12  College of Charleston Auto 46.7% 39.9% 6.8% 11.4%
12  Sam Houston St. Auto 41.7% 35.0% 6.7% 10.3%
12  Drake Auto 37.0% 30.6% 6.4% 9.3%
13  Iona Auto 79.7% 77.6% 2.1% 9.3%
13  Kent St. Auto 62.0% 58.0% 4.1% 9.7%
13  UC Irvine Auto 53.7% 51.4% 2.3% 4.7%
13  James Madison Auto 41.6% 38.4% 3.2% 5.1%
14  Umass Lowell Auto 52.8% 52.3% 0.6% 1.2%
14  Yale Auto 46.3% 45.6% 0.7% 1.3%
14  Oral Roberts Auto 71.3% 70.9% 0.5% 1.6%
14  Jacksonville Auto 31.6% 30.2% 1.3% 1.9%
15  Furman Auto 30.3% 30.2% 0.1% 0.2%
15  Colgate Auto 52.7% 52.6% 0.1% 0.2%
15  Youngstown St. Auto 34.5% 34.4% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Northwestern St. Auto 32.1% 32.1%
16  Montana St. Auto 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 0.0%
16  SIU Edwardsville Auto 47.5% 47.5%
16  Longwood Auto 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Grambling St. Auto 31.4% 31.4%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 48.0% 48.0%
16  Wagner Auto 56.0% 56.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Iowa 84.4% 7.7% 76.7% 83.1%
Xavier 82.9% 11.9% 71.0% 80.6%
Ohio St. 81.3% 7.5% 73.8% 79.8%
Wisconsin 76.5% 5.2% 71.3% 75.2%
Miami (FL) 74.3% 8.8% 65.5% 71.8%
Marquette 73.8% 10.0% 63.8% 70.9%
North Carolina 74.6% 13.3% 61.3% 70.7%
Arizona St. 71.3% 8.6% 62.8% 68.7%
Rutgers 70.1% 6.2% 63.9% 68.1%
St. Mary's 75.4% 28.4% 47.0% 65.7%
Utah St. 71.0% 20.6% 50.5% 63.5%
Virginia Tech 66.1% 7.9% 58.2% 63.2%
Memphis 68.2% 14.5% 53.6% 62.7%
Iowa St. 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 56.5%
Utah 54.0% 8.6% 45.4% 49.7%
New Mexico 56.3% 13.6% 42.7% 49.4%
North Carolina St. 52.8% 8.0% 44.8% 48.7%
Oklahoma 51.2% 5.4% 45.8% 48.4%
Texas Tech 50.2% 6.4% 43.8% 46.8%
St. John's 48.8% 5.6% 43.2% 45.8%
Michigan St. 47.5% 3.6% 43.9% 45.5%
Oklahoma St. 48.4% 6.2% 42.2% 45.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
TCU 45.5% 4.9% 40.6% 42.7%
Boise St. 47.8% 13.8% 34.0% 39.4%
Missouri 40.9% 2.9% 38.0% 39.2%
Kansas St. 40.2% 3.9% 36.3% 37.8%
Michigan 36.9% 3.2% 33.7% 34.8%
Oregon 37.4% 7.5% 29.9% 32.3%
UNLV 38.8% 10.4% 28.4% 31.7%
Mississippi 32.5% 2.7% 29.7% 30.6%
Colorado 31.2% 6.4% 24.7% 26.4%
UAB 46.9% 29.1% 17.8% 25.1%
Butler 25.1% 3.8% 21.3% 22.2%
Nevada 27.4% 8.3% 19.1% 20.8%
Penn St. 22.1% 2.3% 19.8% 20.2%
Wake Forest 22.2% 3.6% 18.6% 19.3%
Northwestern 20.4% 1.9% 18.5% 18.9%
Florida 21.7% 3.5% 18.2% 18.8%
LSU 19.7% 2.1% 17.6% 18.0%
Clemson 18.6% 4.5% 14.0% 14.7%
Texas A&M 16.5% 2.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Seton Hall 14.4% 3.0% 11.3% 11.7%
Central Florida 15.3% 4.2% 11.1% 11.6%
Washington 13.5% 2.8% 10.7% 11.0%
Washington St. 15.0% 4.7% 10.3% 10.8%
Nebraska 12.0% 1.5% 10.5% 10.7%
USC 10.3% 2.7% 7.6% 7.8%
Providence 10.4% 2.8% 7.5% 7.8%
North Texas 20.7% 14.2% 6.4% 7.5%
Vanderbilt 7.4% 1.2% 6.1% 6.2%
Notre Dame 8.2% 2.4% 5.8% 6.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Villanova 8.1% 2.6% 5.5% 5.6%
Pittsburgh 8.0% 2.6% 5.5% 5.6%
Syracuse 6.9% 2.6% 4.4% 4.5%
Cincinnati 7.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%
San Francisco 8.3% 4.6% 3.7% 3.9%
Marshall 24.6% 21.5% 3.0% 3.9%
Santa Clara 6.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3%
Temple 5.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4%
Massachusetts 10.9% 8.8% 2.1% 2.3%
Stanford 5.2% 3.2% 1.9% 2.0%
Loyola Marymount 4.3% 2.6% 1.7% 1.7%
Louisiana Tech 8.0% 6.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Indiana St. 16.1% 14.8% 1.3% 1.6%
Georgia Tech 3.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%
Seattle 16.0% 14.7% 1.2% 1.5%
Southern Miss 11.5% 10.2% 1.3% 1.4%
Colorado St. 5.1% 3.8% 1.2% 1.3%
Bradley 17.8% 16.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Wichita St. 3.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1.1%
Charlotte 6.4% 5.4% 1.0% 1.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 10.3% 9.4% 0.9% 1.0%
Towson 19.2% 18.5% 0.7% 0.9%
Western Kentucky 5.8% 4.9% 0.8% 0.9%
DePaul 1.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%
New Mexico St. 18.2% 17.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Murray St. 13.1% 12.5% 0.6% 0.7%
UNC Wilmington 15.6% 15.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Georgia 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Richmond 10.2% 9.6% 0.5% 0.6%
Dayton 12.3% 11.8% 0.5% 0.6%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Toledo 17.5% 17.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Louisiana 7.1% 6.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Middle Tennessee 5.0% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Hofstra 15.7% 15.3% 0.4% 0.5%
St. Bonaventure 7.2% 6.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Florida Gulf Coast 20.9% 20.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Fresno St. 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Fordham 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Davidson 5.8% 5.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Duquesne 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Grand Canyon 11.2% 11.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Liberty 21.7% 21.5% 0.2% 0.3%
Princeton 23.3% 23.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Pepperdine 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Southern Illinois 9.1% 8.9% 0.2% 0.2%
BYU 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Akron 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Samford 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Chattanooga 19.2% 19.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulane 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Portland 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1%
South Alabama 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Lipscomb 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bryant 21.8% 21.8% 0.1% 0.1%
High Point 18.9% 18.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Missouri St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1%
UTEP 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Troy 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.1%
George Mason 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Wyoming 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 11.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Vermont 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rider 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%