Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Florida Atlantic 56.3%   25 - 8 14 - 4 25 - 9 14 - 4 +11.2      +9.0 16 +2.2 113 69.2 148 +11.1 48 +10.7 2
70 Memphis 0.4%   22 - 10 11 - 7 22 - 10 11 - 7 +7.6      +5.1 62 +2.6 100 76.7 24 +8.8 68 +6.3 5
71 SMU 0.0%   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +7.6      +3.6 90 +4.0 66 68.3 176 +5.4 103 +6.0 6
78 North Texas 0.0%   16 - 14 10 - 8 16 - 14 10 - 8 +7.1      +2.1 116 +4.9 39 57.1 360 +4.3 110 +4.8 7
89 South Florida 0.0%   24 - 7 16 - 2 24 - 7 16 - 2 +6.4      +3.0 98 +3.4 82 69.4 140 +8.4 71 +14.4 1
99 UAB 100.0%   13   22 - 11 12 - 6 22 - 12 12 - 6 +5.2      +5.5 54 -0.2 179 69.2 151 +7.4 80 +8.4 3
116 Charlotte 0.0%   18 - 12 13 - 5 18 - 12 13 - 5 +3.3      +1.9 127 +1.5 132 58.9 356 +4.4 109 +8.0 4
132 Tulane 0.0%   13 - 17 5 - 13 13 - 17 5 - 13 +2.3      +3.4 93 -1.1 209 80.1 7 +0.3 158 -1.7 10
145 Wichita St. 0.0%   14 - 19 6 - 13 14 - 19 6 - 13 +1.4      -0.6 198 +2.0 119 69.3 142 +0.5 155 -2.3 11
177 East Carolina 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 11 14 - 18 7 - 11 -0.9      -0.7 203 -0.1 174 63.5 314 -1.1 184 +0.5 8
178 Temple 0.0%   15 - 20 6 - 13 15 - 20 6 - 13 -0.9      -2.2 241 +1.3 136 66.8 231 -0.6 175 -3.1 12
190 Tulsa 0.0%   15 - 15 7 - 11 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1.5      -1.8 226 +0.3 163 74.6 41 -0.5 174 -0.2 9
218 Rice 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 14 10 - 21 5 - 14 -2.9      +0.9 153 -3.8 288 65.5 266 -4.1 241 -3.7 13
241 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 14 10 - 21 5 - 14 -4.0      +0.7 158 -4.7 323 74.9 38 -5.6 271 -3.9 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Florida Atlantic 2.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
SMU 5.0 100.0
North Texas 7.0 100.0
South Florida 1.0 100.0
UAB 4.0 100.0
Charlotte 3.0 100.0
Tulane 12.0 100.0
Wichita St. 10.0 100.0
East Carolina 8.0 100.0
Temple 10.0 100.0
Tulsa 8.0 100.0
Rice 12.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida Atlantic 14 - 4 100.0
Memphis 11 - 7 100.0
SMU 11 - 7 100.0
North Texas 10 - 8 100.0
South Florida 16 - 2 100.0
UAB 12 - 6 100.0
Charlotte 13 - 5 100.0
Tulane 5 - 13 100.0
Wichita St. 6 - 12 100.0
East Carolina 7 - 11 100.0
Temple 6 - 12 100.0
Tulsa 7 - 11 100.0
Rice 5 - 13 100.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Atlantic
Memphis
SMU
North Texas
South Florida 100.0% 100.0
UAB
Charlotte
Tulane
Wichita St.
East Carolina
Temple
Tulsa
Rice
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Atlantic 56.3% 0.0% 56.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.3 11.2 28.1 13.2 43.7 56.3%
Memphis 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.4%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
UAB 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.3 33.7 62.9 3.2 0.0
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida Atlantic 56.3% 25.8% 42.9% 19.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Memphis 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.6% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 43.5 56.3 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 57.0 43.0 0.0
2nd Round 33.2% 0.4 66.8 29.9 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 9.0% 0.1 91.0 8.8 0.2
Elite Eight 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0