Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25

Last Updated: Dec 9, 2023
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Purdue Auto 100.0% 32.4% 67.5% 99.9%
1  Arizona Auto 99.8% 40.3% 59.5% 99.7%
1  Houston Auto 99.4% 20.4% 79.0% 99.3%
1  Connecticut Auto 99.7% 28.0% 71.7% 99.6%
2  Kansas At-Large 98.5% 13.5% 85.0% 98.3%
2  Marquette At-Large 99.4% 22.5% 76.9% 99.2%
2  Baylor At-Large 97.3% 12.6% 84.6% 96.9%
2  Creighton At-Large 98.1% 21.4% 76.7% 97.5%
3  BYU At-Large 97.1% 13.2% 83.8% 96.6%
3  Tennessee Auto 95.9% 18.8% 77.1% 94.9%
3  Illinois At-Large 93.3% 13.3% 80.0% 92.3%
3  Alabama At-Large 90.6% 15.9% 74.7% 88.8%
4  Wisconsin At-Large 93.8% 11.3% 82.5% 93.0%
4  North Carolina At-Large 94.0% 17.6% 76.4% 92.7%
4  Oklahoma At-Large 88.6% 7.4% 81.2% 87.7%
4  Gonzaga Auto 94.6% 66.0% 28.7% 84.2%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 90.1% 10.5% 79.6% 88.9%
5  Clemson At-Large 90.8% 11.0% 79.8% 89.7%
5  Duke Auto 86.9% 19.7% 67.1% 83.7%
5  Kentucky At-Large 83.5% 12.8% 70.7% 81.1%
6  Florida Atlantic Auto 90.2% 40.4% 49.8% 83.5%
6  Colorado St. Auto 90.1% 22.7% 67.4% 87.1%
6  Ohio St. At-Large 82.3% 7.8% 74.5% 80.8%
6  Iowa St. At-Large 74.3% 7.6% 66.7% 72.2%
7  Virginia At-Large 83.6% 11.0% 72.5% 81.6%
7  Auburn At-Large 75.8% 10.8% 65.1% 72.9%
7  TCU At-Large 63.9% 5.5% 58.4% 61.8%
7  Cincinnati At-Large 64.2% 5.7% 58.5% 62.1%
8  Miami (FL) At-Large 75.8% 9.9% 65.8% 73.1%
8  Michigan St. At-Large 66.2% 9.5% 56.7% 62.6%
8  Villanova At-Large 65.7% 7.4% 58.4% 63.0%
8  Texas At-Large 53.2% 5.0% 48.1% 50.7%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Florida At-Large 60.9% 7.9% 52.9% 57.5%
9  USC At-Large 63.6% 10.4% 53.1% 59.3%
9  Mississippi St. At-Large 57.1% 6.1% 51.0% 54.3%
9  Colorado At-Large 55.4% 9.5% 46.0% 50.8%
10  Utah At-Large 54.4% 7.0% 47.3% 50.9%
10  San Diego St. At-Large 67.8% 19.7% 48.2% 60.0%
10  Northwestern At-Large 48.4% 3.9% 44.6% 46.4%
10  Memphis At-Large 69.2% 22.7% 46.4% 60.1%
11  New Mexico At-Large 59.7% 18.7% 41.0% 50.5%
11  Indiana At-Large 47.0% 3.5% 43.5% 45.1%
11  Arkansas At-Large 48.1% 5.4% 42.7% 45.2%
11  UCLA At-Large 48.7% 8.7% 40.0% 43.8%
11  Butler At-Large 45.7% 4.6% 41.1% 43.1%
11  Dayton Auto 38.5% 21.7% 16.8% 21.4%
12  Princeton Auto 60.2% 52.2% 8.0% 16.7%
12  Indiana St. Auto 37.8% 27.7% 10.0% 13.9%
12  James Madison Auto 51.9% 44.8% 7.1% 12.9%
12  Grand Canyon Auto 42.2% 38.4% 3.8% 6.2%
13  Liberty Auto 50.0% 46.6% 3.4% 6.3%
13  UC Irvine Auto 46.4% 45.1% 1.3% 2.4%
13  UNC Greensboro Auto 33.0% 32.6% 0.4% 0.7%
13  Hofstra Auto 27.7% 27.3% 0.5% 0.6%
14  Vermont Auto 42.8% 42.6% 0.1% 0.2%
14  Kent St. Auto 28.2% 27.9% 0.2% 0.3%
14  McNeese St. Auto 67.7% 67.7% 0.0% 0.1%
14  Weber St. Auto 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Longwood Auto 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Wright St. Auto 27.7% 27.6% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Colgate Auto 72.9% 72.9%
15  Lipscomb Auto 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0%
16  South Dakota St. Auto 35.7% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Morehead St. Auto 37.2% 37.2%
16  Iona Auto 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Howard Auto 44.3% 44.3%
16  Texas Southern Auto 31.7% 31.7%
16  Merrimack Auto 37.0% 37.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia 83.6% 11.0% 72.5% 81.6%
Kentucky 83.5% 12.8% 70.7% 81.1%
Ohio St. 82.3% 7.8% 74.5% 80.8%
Miami (FL) 75.8% 9.9% 65.8% 73.1%
Auburn 75.8% 10.8% 65.1% 72.9%
Iowa St. 74.3% 7.6% 66.7% 72.2%
Villanova 65.7% 7.4% 58.4% 63.0%
Michigan St. 66.2% 9.5% 56.7% 62.6%
Cincinnati 64.2% 5.7% 58.5% 62.1%
TCU 63.9% 5.5% 58.4% 61.8%
Memphis 69.2% 22.7% 46.4% 60.1%
San Diego St. 67.8% 19.7% 48.2% 60.0%
USC 63.6% 10.4% 53.1% 59.3%
Florida 60.9% 7.9% 52.9% 57.5%
Mississippi St. 57.1% 6.1% 51.0% 54.3%
Utah 54.4% 7.0% 47.3% 50.9%
Colorado 55.4% 9.5% 46.0% 50.8%
Texas 53.2% 5.0% 48.1% 50.7%
New Mexico 59.7% 18.7% 41.0% 50.5%
Northwestern 48.4% 3.9% 44.6% 46.4%
Arkansas 48.1% 5.4% 42.7% 45.2%
Indiana 47.0% 3.5% 43.5% 45.1%
UCLA 48.7% 8.7% 40.0% 43.8%
Butler 45.7% 4.6% 41.1% 43.1%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Nevada 50.8% 13.7% 37.1% 43.0%
Providence 45.1% 4.6% 40.5% 42.5%
St. John's 44.3% 4.6% 39.7% 41.6%
Oregon 43.6% 6.7% 36.9% 39.5%
Kansas St. 37.8% 2.6% 35.2% 36.1%
Iowa 37.5% 4.5% 32.9% 34.5%
Texas Tech 35.1% 2.8% 32.4% 33.3%
Utah St. 40.9% 12.2% 28.7% 32.7%
Washington St. 35.2% 5.5% 29.7% 31.4%
Virginia Tech 29.8% 4.2% 25.6% 26.7%
Washington 29.2% 4.9% 24.3% 25.6%
Pittsburgh 30.0% 6.1% 23.9% 25.5%
South Carolina 27.3% 2.9% 24.5% 25.2%
Wake Forest 28.7% 5.1% 23.6% 24.9%
Mississippi 25.5% 2.3% 23.2% 23.8%
Michigan 25.8% 3.8% 22.1% 22.9%
North Carolina St. 25.6% 4.4% 21.3% 22.3%
Missouri 23.5% 2.5% 21.0% 21.5%
Florida St. 22.5% 3.7% 18.8% 19.5%
Arizona St. 20.4% 3.3% 17.1% 17.7%
Nebraska 18.3% 2.5% 15.8% 16.2%
Xavier 18.7% 3.9% 14.8% 15.4%
Central Florida 16.6% 1.8% 14.8% 15.1%
Boise St. 19.7% 7.2% 12.5% 13.5%
Georgia 13.4% 2.2% 11.2% 11.5%
Rutgers 13.2% 2.6% 10.7% 10.9%
Syracuse 12.6% 2.8% 9.8% 10.1%
Maryland 12.5% 2.8% 9.7% 10.0%
Seton Hall 10.5% 2.4% 8.1% 8.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Drake 25.0% 20.9% 4.1% 5.2%
LSU 6.6% 1.6% 5.0% 5.1%
San Francisco 16.1% 12.7% 3.4% 3.9%
St. Mary's 16.4% 13.3% 3.1% 3.6%
Wichita St. 9.3% 6.0% 3.3% 3.5%
Tulane 9.2% 6.0% 3.2% 3.4%
Georgia Tech 4.7% 1.3% 3.3% 3.4%
Duquesne 14.6% 11.8% 2.8% 3.2%
Oklahoma St. 4.1% 1.3% 2.8% 2.9%
Boston College 4.6% 1.9% 2.7% 2.8%
Minnesota 4.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6%
North Texas 9.5% 7.1% 2.4% 2.6%
Stanford 4.8% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%
St. Bonaventure 14.0% 12.0% 2.0% 2.3%
Saint Joseph's 10.5% 8.6% 1.9% 2.1%
SMU 9.0% 7.3% 1.7% 1.9%
Louisiana Tech 26.6% 25.3% 1.3% 1.8%
Bradley 12.5% 11.3% 1.2% 1.3%
George Mason 9.0% 7.9% 1.1% 1.2%
Appalachian St. 22.7% 21.9% 0.8% 1.0%
Southern Illinois 11.6% 10.9% 0.7% 0.8%
Virginia Commonwealth 9.9% 9.4% 0.6% 0.6%
West Virginia 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Akron 27.6% 27.2% 0.4% 0.6%
Penn St. 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5%
Richmond 9.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.5%
UNC Wilmington 17.1% 16.7% 0.4% 0.5%
Santa Clara 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Davidson 5.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.4%
UNLV 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
College of Charleston 20.3% 20.0% 0.3% 0.4%
Charlotte 3.5% 3.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Oregon St. 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Umass Lowell 32.4% 32.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Hawaii 17.7% 17.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 16.1% 15.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Missouri St. 7.9% 7.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Toledo 19.3% 19.1% 0.1% 0.2%
UAB 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Georgetown 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Notre Dame 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Cornell 14.1% 14.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Loyola Chicago 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1%
California 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Yale 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 6.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Wyoming 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Furman 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Seattle 11.9% 11.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Samford 17.3% 17.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Youngstown St. 19.6% 19.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Delaware 11.3% 11.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Drexel 13.9% 13.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Louisville 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Loyola Marymount 3.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Long Beach St. 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Belmont 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.3% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 9.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Texas Arlington 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%