Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
44 Dayton 82.8%   8   24 - 7 14 - 4 24 - 8 14 - 4 +10.9      +8.0 24 +2.9 94 61.6 340 +12.2 29 +10.9 3
81 Virginia Commonwealth 0.0%   22 - 13 11 - 7 22 - 13 11 - 7 +6.8      +2.3 114 +4.6 49 64.1 305 +6.1 95 +6.5 4
88 Richmond 0.1%   23 - 9 15 - 3 23 - 9 15 - 3 +6.5      +0.7 156 +5.7 32 67.1 223 +8.5 69 +12.6 1
91 Duquesne 100.0%   12   23 - 11 10 - 8 23 - 12 10 - 8 +6.3      +0.3 170 +6.0 29 66.2 248 +7.9 75 +5.1 6
92 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   22 - 9 15 - 3 22 - 9 15 - 3 +6.3      -0.4 193 +6.6 23 70.4 115 +7.8 76 +12.4 2
97 Massachusetts 0.0%   20 - 11 11 - 7 20 - 11 11 - 7 +5.8      +3.7 85 +2.1 116 70.3 121 +4.2 111 +5.2 5
101 George Mason 0.0%   19 - 12 9 - 9 19 - 12 9 - 9 +5.1      +1.9 126 +3.2 87 61.6 339 +4.6 106 +3.1 9
102 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   20 - 13 9 - 9 20 - 13 9 - 9 +5.1      +3.8 84 +1.3 134 64.5 291 +4.6 107 +3.5 7
105 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   21 - 13 9 - 9 21 - 13 9 - 9 +4.8      +3.2 97 +1.6 127 70.5 113 +5.0 105 +3.2 8
126 Davidson 0.0%   13 - 17 5 - 13 13 - 17 5 - 13 +2.6      -0.6 199 +3.2 85 64.2 303 +0.8 147 -2.0 14
185 Fordham 0.0%   13 - 20 6 - 12 13 - 20 6 - 12 -1.1      -2.9 255 +1.8 122 71.4 94 -2.2 207 -0.7 10
191 Saint Louis 0.0%   12 - 20 5 - 13 12 - 20 5 - 13 -1.5      +4.0 81 -5.6 338 72.1 78 0.0 162 -1.3 13
192 La Salle 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 -1.6      -0.1 181 -1.5 217 66.8 232 -0.4 172 -1.0 12
203 George Washington 0.0%   14 - 17 4 - 14 14 - 17 4 - 14 -2.2      +1.1 149 -3.4 273 73.5 54 -1.6 194 -4.0 15
210 Rhode Island 0.0%   11 - 20 6 - 12 11 - 20 6 - 12 -2.6      +0.3 171 -2.9 256 70.8 104 -2.1 205 -0.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 3.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.0 100.0
Richmond 1.0 100.0
Duquesne 6.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 1.0 100.0
Massachusetts 4.0 100.0
George Mason 7.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 7.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 7.0 100.0
Davidson 13.0 100.0
Fordham 10.0 100.0
Saint Louis 13.0 100.0
La Salle 10.0 100.0
George Washington 15.0 100.0
Rhode Island 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 14 - 4 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 100.0
Richmond 15 - 3 100.0
Duquesne 10 - 8 100.0
Loyola Chicago 15 - 3 100.0
Massachusetts 11 - 7 100.0
George Mason 9 - 9 100.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 100.0
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 100.0
Davidson 5 - 13 100.0
Fordham 6 - 12 100.0
Saint Louis 5 - 13 100.0
La Salle 6 - 12 100.0
George Washington 4 - 14 100.0
Rhode Island 6 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Richmond 100.0% 100.0
Duquesne
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 100.0
Massachusetts
George Mason
St. Bonaventure
Saint Joseph's
Davidson
Fordham
Saint Louis
La Salle
George Washington
Rhode Island


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 82.8% 0.0% 82.8% 8   0.0 2.2 15.0 18.4 21.6 17.8 7.3 0.5 17.2 82.8%
Virginia Commonwealth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Duquesne 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   11.6 85.9 2.4
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 82.8% 1.8% 81.9% 39.1% 9.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.0% 5.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 17.1 82.8 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 18.1 81.9 0.0
2nd Round 53.9% 0.6 46.1 44.8 9.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.2% 0.1 85.8 13.8 0.5
Elite Eight 3.8% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0