Pre-tourney Rankings
Big 12
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Houston 100.0%   1   30 - 4 15 - 3 31 - 4 15 - 3 +21.0      +8.8 18 +12.2 2 60.6 349 +22.3 3 +22.1 1
7 Iowa St. 100.0%   1   27 - 7 13 - 5 28 - 7 13 - 5 +18.2      +5.1 61 +13.1 1 68.3 175 +18.1 4 +18.5 2
14 Baylor 100.0%   3   22 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +15.3      +11.2 6 +4.1 64 65.1 277 +15.6 11 +15.0 3
17 BYU 99.8%   5   23 - 10 10 - 8 24 - 10 10 - 8 +14.6      +10.0 11 +4.5 53 71.6 90 +13.6 22 +13.3 6
20 Kansas 100.0%   4   21 - 10 10 - 8 22 - 10 10 - 8 +13.7      +5.1 60 +8.6 9 71.7 87 +15.2 12 +13.4 5
23 Texas 87.1%   9   20 - 12 9 - 9 20 - 12 9 - 9 +13.2      +8.9 17 +4.2 59 68.0 185 +12.1 31 +12.5 7
26 Texas Tech 99.1%   5   23 - 10 11 - 7 24 - 10 11 - 7 +13.0      +8.4 21 +4.6 50 66.4 242 +14.0 17 +14.6 4
31 TCU 84.7%   9   21 - 12 9 - 9 22 - 12 9 - 9 +12.7      +6.9 33 +5.9 30 73.5 53 +12.0 32 +12.3 8
34 Cincinnati 15.6%   20 - 14 7 - 11 20 - 14 7 - 11 +11.8      +4.6 70 +7.2 19 68.2 180 +9.8 63 +9.1 12
37 Oklahoma 58.8%   10   20 - 12 8 - 10 20 - 12 8 - 10 +11.5      +5.7 50 +5.8 31 67.7 203 +12.0 33 +11.1 9
55 Central Florida 0.1%   17 - 15 7 - 11 17 - 15 7 - 11 +9.6      +1.8 131 +7.9 15 70.2 125 +8.0 73 +9.7 11
62 Kansas St. 14.3%   19 - 14 8 - 10 19 - 14 8 - 10 +9.0      +1.9 124 +7.1 22 68.1 184 +10.7 54 +10.5 10
106 Oklahoma St. 0.0%   12 - 20 4 - 14 12 - 20 4 - 14 +4.6      +2.4 110 +2.2 112 67.9 194 +2.3 129 +4.8 14
129 West Virginia 0.0%   9 - 23 4 - 14 9 - 23 4 - 14 +2.5      +2.2 115 +0.4 158 70.2 124 +1.5 137 +5.0 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Iowa St. 2.0 100.0
Baylor 3.0 100.0
BYU 5.0 100.0
Kansas 5.0 100.0
Texas 7.0 100.0
Texas Tech 3.0 100.0
TCU 7.0 100.0
Cincinnati 11.0 100.0
Oklahoma 9.0 100.0
Central Florida 11.0 100.0
Kansas St. 9.0 100.0
Oklahoma St. 13.0 100.0
West Virginia 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 100.0
Iowa St. 13 - 5 100.0
Baylor 11 - 7 100.0
BYU 10 - 8 100.0
Kansas 10 - 8 100.0
Texas 9 - 9 100.0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 100.0
TCU 9 - 9 100.0
Cincinnati 7 - 11 100.0
Oklahoma 8 - 10 100.0
Central Florida 7 - 11 100.0
Kansas St. 8 - 10 100.0
Oklahoma St. 4 - 14 100.0
West Virginia 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Iowa St.
Baylor
BYU
Kansas
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
Central Florida
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
West Virginia


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   88.3 11.7 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   46.4 49.9 3.7 0.0
Baylor 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   1.2 20.0 57.4 21.0 0.5 100.0%
BYU 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 5   0.0 0.2 6.6 43.3 45.8 3.8 0.1 0.2 99.8%
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.8 15.9 58.1 24.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
Texas 87.1% 0.0% 87.1% 9   0.9 3.8 9.4 20.5 27.0 21.5 4.0 12.9 87.1%
Texas Tech 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 5   0.7 12.1 61.2 22.2 2.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 99.1%
TCU 84.7% 0.0% 84.7% 9   1.2 5.2 15.3 26.0 25.5 10.6 0.9 15.3 84.7%
Cincinnati 15.6% 0.0% 15.6% 0.0 0.1 2.4 12.9 0.1 84.4 15.6%
Oklahoma 58.8% 0.0% 58.8% 10   0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.2 28.4 19.8 0.0 41.2 58.8%
Central Florida 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Kansas St. 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.4 0.1 85.7 14.3%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
West Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.1% 80.3% 59.1% 39.0% 23.8% 13.8%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.0% 70.5% 44.4% 23.9% 11.9% 5.6%
Baylor 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.8% 57.8% 26.4% 10.2% 3.7% 1.3%
BYU 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 80.3% 44.0% 15.0% 6.4% 2.3% 0.7%
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.2% 44.2% 14.3% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Texas 87.1% 10.2% 82.7% 46.5% 13.6% 6.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Texas Tech 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 69.3% 30.2% 9.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2%
TCU 84.7% 3.0% 83.4% 44.9% 12.2% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Cincinnati 15.6% 14.8% 9.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma 58.8% 34.5% 41.4% 19.6% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Central Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 14.3% 13.9% 5.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.6 0.3 7.3 37.1 43.9 10.8 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 8.2 1.0 15.1 49.2 31.3 3.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 17.1 32.1 30.6 12.8 1.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.6 0.2 2.7 13.1 30.0 33.2 16.7 3.7 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 93.1% 1.8 6.9 30.5 40.4 18.4 3.6 0.3
Final Four 69.6% 0.9 30.4 48.5 18.9 2.0 0.1
Final Game 42.1% 0.5 57.9 38.3 3.8
Champion 22.5% 0.2 77.5 22.5