Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
24 New Mexico 100.0%   8   25 - 9 10 - 8 26 - 9 10 - 8 +13.1      +6.7 36 +6.4 26 80.1 8 +11.8 37 +8.3 7
28 San Diego St. 95.4%   7   22 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +12.9      +4.5 72 +8.4 10 65.8 258 +12.7 26 +9.7 5
41 Nevada 91.8%   6   25 - 7 13 - 5 26 - 7 13 - 5 +11.3      +6.6 37 +4.7 45 66.8 234 +13.3 23 +13.1 2
45 Boise St. 85.4%   8   20 - 10 13 - 5 20 - 11 13 - 5 +10.8      +5.1 58 +5.7 33 66.4 243 +11.2 47 +13.0 3
48 Colorado St. 74.8%   9   22 - 10 10 - 8 23 - 10 10 - 8 +10.6      +6.1 46 +4.5 52 65.2 269 +11.6 42 +8.6 6
52 Utah St. 87.5%   7   25 - 6 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +10.1      +6.6 38 +3.5 79 70.8 103 +14.0 18 +14.5 1
73 UNLV 0.4%   17 - 12 12 - 6 17 - 12 12 - 6 +7.5      +4.1 79 +3.4 83 63.4 318 +7.3 82 +11.0 4
151 Wyoming 0.0%   13 - 17 8 - 10 13 - 17 8 - 10 +1.1      +2.1 120 -1.0 203 67.8 199 +2.0 134 +4.7 8
213 Fresno St. 0.0%   11 - 21 4 - 14 11 - 21 4 - 14 -2.7      -1.4 219 -1.2 210 64.4 295 -2.1 204 -2.4 9
231 San Jose St. 0.0%   8 - 23 2 - 16 8 - 23 2 - 16 -3.5      +0.5 165 -4.0 295 64.9 283 -5.1 264 -7.7 11
244 Air Force 0.0%   9 - 22 2 - 16 9 - 22 2 - 16 -4.1      +0.4 167 -4.5 313 58.4 358 -6.0 273 -7.5 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
New Mexico 6.0 100.0
San Diego St. 5.0 100.0
Nevada 2.0 100.0
Boise St. 2.0 100.0
Colorado St. 6.0 100.0
Utah St. 1.0 100.0
UNLV 4.0 100.0
Wyoming 8.0 100.0
Fresno St. 9.0 100.0
San Jose St. 10.0 100.0
Air Force 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
New Mexico 10 - 8 100.0
San Diego St. 11 - 7 100.0
Nevada 13 - 5 100.0
Boise St. 13 - 5 100.0
Colorado St. 10 - 8 100.0
Utah St. 14 - 4 100.0
UNLV 12 - 6 100.0
Wyoming 8 - 10 100.0
Fresno St. 4 - 14 100.0
San Jose St. 2 - 16 100.0
Air Force 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico
San Diego St.
Nevada
Boise St.
Colorado St.
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0
UNLV
Wyoming
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.0 2.0 16.0 22.0 30.9 21.9 6.9 0.3
San Diego St. 95.4% 0.0% 95.4% 7   0.1 7.6 30.1 26.4 19.8 9.6 1.8 0.1 4.6 95.4%
Nevada 91.8% 0.0% 91.8% 6   0.1 8.8 29.9 31.2 16.6 4.9 0.4 0.0 8.2 91.8%
Boise St. 85.4% 0.0% 85.4% 8   1.3 13.8 26.8 29.6 12.1 1.8 0.0 14.6 85.4%
Colorado St. 74.8% 0.0% 74.8% 9   0.1 3.9 13.1 32.7 21.0 3.9 0.1 25.2 74.8%
Utah St. 87.5% 0.0% 87.5% 7   0.1 6.6 25.5 29.0 17.7 7.2 1.2 0.0 12.5 87.5%
UNLV 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 56.6% 16.9% 7.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
San Diego St. 95.4% 0.3% 95.3% 55.2% 18.2% 7.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Nevada 91.8% 0.0% 91.8% 47.7% 14.2% 4.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Boise St. 85.4% 0.2% 85.3% 40.7% 9.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Colorado St. 74.8% 0.4% 74.5% 33.1% 6.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Utah St. 87.5% 0.2% 87.4% 40.7% 10.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.4 0.1 0.9 10.6 40.8 47.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 5.3 0.1 0.9 10.7 41.2 47.1 0.0
2nd Round 98.3% 2.7 1.7 11.5 28.5 33.5 19.2 5.1 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 56.0% 0.8 44.0 39.4 14.0 2.3 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 24.7% 0.3 75.3 22.2 2.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 8.0% 0.1 92.1 7.7 0.2 0.0
Final Game 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.3 0.0
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5