Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#31
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#42
Pace75.1#31
Improvement+0.7#164

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#22
First Shot+7.9#23
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks+6.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
Freethrows+3.2#28
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+4.4#55
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks+5.0#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#277
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+0.9#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four39.1% n/a n/a
First Round28.6% n/a n/a
Second Round12.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.4% n/a n/a
Final Four0.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 100 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 12
Quad 28 - 09 - 12
Quad 37 - 116 - 13
Quad 46 - 022 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 205   Elon W 90-76 95%     1 - 0 +8.7 +7.5 +0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Kansas L 89-92 31%     1 - 1 +16.2 +18.6 -2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 241   American W 107-55 97%     2 - 1 +44.9 +25.7 +16.2
  Nov 22, 2024 219   @ Hawaii W 87-69 91%     3 - 1 +17.6 +17.1 +1.0
  Nov 25, 2024 77   Dayton W 92-90 75%     4 - 1 +9.2 +11.9 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 3   Auburn L 72-85 18%     4 - 2 +10.8 +4.6 +6.9
  Nov 27, 2024 7   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 30%     4 - 3 +16.6 +18.7 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 5   Alabama L 79-94 33%     4 - 4 +3.6 -0.5 +6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 91   Georgia Tech W 68-65 85%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +6.0 -6.9 +12.6
  Dec 14, 2024 212   La Salle W 93-67 96%     6 - 4 +20.3 +10.0 +8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 2   Florida L 84-90 15%     6 - 5 +19.2 +12.0 +7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 25   UCLA W 76-74 46%     7 - 5 +17.2 +8.9 +8.2
  Dec 29, 2024 221   Campbell W 97-81 96%     8 - 5 +10.0 +21.9 -12.1
  Jan 01, 2025 23   @ Louisville L 70-83 33%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +5.6 +1.4 +5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 72%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +9.0 +7.1 +1.9
  Jan 07, 2025 45   SMU W 82-67 70%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +23.7 +6.6 +16.1
  Jan 11, 2025 109   @ North Carolina St. W 63-61 76%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +8.6 +1.1 +7.7
  Jan 15, 2025 108   California W 79-53 88%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +27.2 +3.4 +23.2
  Jan 18, 2025 79   Stanford L 71-72 82%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +3.3 +3.8 -0.6
  Jan 21, 2025 63   @ Wake Forest L 66-67 59%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +10.8 -0.9 +11.8
  Jan 25, 2025 170   Boston College W 102-96 OT 94%     13 - 8 6 - 3 +2.7 +20.7 -18.5
  Jan 28, 2025 62   @ Pittsburgh L 65-73 58%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +4.2 +0.9 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2025 1   @ Duke L 70-87 10%     13 - 10 6 - 5 +11.4 +15.2 -5.2
  Feb 08, 2025 62   Pittsburgh W 67-66 76%     14 - 10 7 - 5 +7.7 +3.8 +4.0
  Feb 10, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 65-85 32%     14 - 11 7 - 6 -1.1 +1.9 -3.0
  Feb 15, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 88-82 75%     15 - 11 8 - 6 +12.9 +18.2 -5.2
  Feb 19, 2025 109   North Carolina St. W 97-73 88%     16 - 11 9 - 6 +25.1 +26.3 -1.0
  Feb 22, 2025 99   Virginia W 81-66 87%     17 - 11 10 - 6 +16.8 +13.8 +4.0
  Feb 24, 2025 87   @ Florida St. W 96-85 69%     18 - 11 11 - 6 +20.2 +33.6 -13.0
  Mar 01, 2025 174   Miami (FL) W 92-73 94%     19 - 11 12 - 6 +15.3 +12.6 +2.7
  Mar 04, 2025 136   @ Virginia Tech W 91-59 82%     20 - 11 13 - 6 +36.2 +24.0 +13.4
  Mar 08, 2025 1   Duke L 69-82 20%     20 - 12 13 - 7 +9.9 +8.1 +1.3
  Mar 12, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 76-56 80%     21 - 12 +25.2 +11.3 +15.5
  Mar 13, 2025 63   Wake Forest W 68-59 69%     22 - 12 +18.1 +1.6 +16.4
  Mar 14, 2025 1   Duke L 71-74 14%     22 - 13 +22.6 +10.8 +11.8
Projected Record 22 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 44.2% 44.2% 11.3 0.0 0.3 2.7 25.0 16.2 55.9 44.2%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.2% 0.0% 44.2% 11.3 0.0 0.3 2.7 25.0 16.2 55.9 44.2%