Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24
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2024-25
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2025-26
Last Updated: Feb 13, 2025
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Probabilistic Seeding
Seed |
Team |
Bid Type |
Bid Chance |
Auto-Chance |
At-Large Chance |
At-Large If Not Auto |
1  |
Auburn |
Auto |
100.0% |
33.2% |
66.8% |
100.0% |
1  |
Alabama |
At-Large |
100.0% |
17.3% |
82.7% |
100.0% |
1  |
Duke |
Auto |
100.0% |
64.4% |
35.6% |
100.0% |
1  |
Houston |
Auto |
100.0% |
36.1% |
64.0% |
100.0% |
2  |
Florida |
At-Large |
100.0% |
21.1% |
78.9% |
100.0% |
2  |
Tennessee |
At-Large |
100.0% |
11.4% |
88.6% |
100.0% |
2  |
Purdue |
Auto |
100.0% |
22.0% |
78.0% |
100.0% |
2  |
Arizona |
At-Large |
100.0% |
16.0% |
84.0% |
100.0% |
3  |
Texas Tech |
At-Large |
100.0% |
13.2% |
86.8% |
100.0% |
3  |
Texas A&M |
At-Large |
100.0% |
5.7% |
94.3% |
99.9% |
3  |
Michigan |
At-Large |
99.9% |
12.3% |
87.6% |
99.9% |
3  |
Kentucky |
At-Large |
99.9% |
3.1% |
96.8% |
99.9% |
4  |
Wisconsin |
At-Large |
100.0% |
15.2% |
84.8% |
100.0% |
4  |
Kansas |
At-Large |
99.8% |
11.1% |
88.7% |
99.8% |
4  |
Iowa St. |
At-Large |
99.9% |
15.3% |
84.7% |
99.9% |
4  |
St. John's |
Auto |
99.6% |
32.6% |
66.9% |
99.3% |
5  |
Maryland |
At-Large |
99.7% |
11.6% |
88.2% |
99.7% |
5  |
Illinois |
At-Large |
99.7% |
10.4% |
89.3% |
99.6% |
5  |
Missouri |
At-Large |
98.9% |
3.7% |
95.2% |
98.8% |
5  |
Mississippi |
At-Large |
99.5% |
2.5% |
97.0% |
99.5% |
6  |
Michigan St. |
At-Large |
98.8% |
12.9% |
86.0% |
98.6% |
6  |
Marquette |
At-Large |
99.7% |
17.3% |
82.5% |
99.7% |
6  |
UCLA |
At-Large |
99.4% |
7.3% |
92.1% |
99.3% |
6  |
St. Mary's |
At-Large |
97.4% |
32.5% |
64.9% |
96.2% |
7  |
Louisville |
At-Large |
97.1% |
13.3% |
83.7% |
96.6% |
7  |
Creighton |
At-Large |
98.0% |
19.1% |
78.9% |
97.6% |
7  |
Baylor |
At-Large |
94.2% |
4.9% |
89.3% |
93.9% |
7  |
Connecticut |
At-Large |
98.2% |
17.2% |
81.0% |
97.8% |
8  |
Mississippi St. |
At-Large |
92.9% |
0.8% |
92.1% |
92.8% |
8  |
Ohio St. |
At-Large |
90.4% |
4.4% |
86.0% |
90.0% |
8  |
Gonzaga |
Auto |
94.0% |
54.1% |
39.9% |
86.9% |
8  |
Clemson |
At-Large |
89.1% |
10.9% |
78.2% |
87.8% |
Seed |
Team |
Bid Type |
Bid Chance |
Auto-Chance |
At-Large Chance |
At-Large If Not Auto |
9  |
Nebraska |
At-Large |
81.9% |
1.3% |
80.6% |
81.7% |
9  |
Oregon |
At-Large |
91.8% |
0.8% |
91.0% |
91.8% |
9  |
New Mexico |
Auto |
85.7% |
32.4% |
53.3% |
78.8% |
9  |
Memphis |
Auto |
84.4% |
47.9% |
36.5% |
70.1% |
10  |
BYU |
At-Large |
63.5% |
1.4% |
62.1% |
63.0% |
10  |
West Virginia |
At-Large |
71.8% |
0.7% |
71.1% |
71.6% |
10  |
Utah St. |
At-Large |
67.1% |
17.9% |
49.2% |
60.0% |
10  |
Arkansas |
At-Large |
54.2% |
0.5% |
53.8% |
54.0% |
11  |
Oklahoma |
At-Large |
57.9% |
0.2% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
11  |
San Diego St. |
At-Large |
48.9% |
14.3% |
34.6% |
40.3% |
11  |
Vanderbilt |
At-Large |
49.7% |
0.1% |
49.6% |
49.6% |
11  |
SMU |
At-Large |
46.5% |
4.7% |
41.7% |
43.8% |
11  |
Texas |
At-Large |
49.5% |
0.3% |
49.2% |
49.3% |
11  |
Virginia Commonwealth |
Auto |
54.1% |
45.8% |
8.3% |
15.3% |
12  |
Drake |
Auto |
44.0% |
38.8% |
5.2% |
8.5% |
12  |
UC San Diego |
Auto |
54.0% |
52.9% |
1.1% |
2.4% |
12  |
Yale |
Auto |
64.8% |
64.8% |
|
|
12  |
Liberty |
Auto |
32.2% |
32.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
13  |
Arkansas St. |
Auto |
37.5% |
37.5% |
|
|
13  |
McNeese St. |
Auto |
68.3% |
68.3% |
|
|
13  |
Grand Canyon |
Auto |
49.8% |
49.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
13  |
Akron |
Auto |
41.1% |
41.1% |
|
|
14  |
High Point |
Auto |
43.4% |
43.4% |
|
|
14  |
South Dakota St. |
Auto |
36.9% |
36.9% |
|
|
14  |
Lipscomb |
Auto |
38.5% |
38.5% |
|
|
14  |
Chattanooga |
Auto |
27.4% |
27.4% |
|
|
15  |
UNC Wilmington |
Auto |
29.3% |
29.3% |
|
|
15  |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee |
Auto |
18.8% |
18.8% |
|
|
15  |
Northern Colorado |
Auto |
29.3% |
29.3% |
|
|
15  |
Bryant |
Auto |
37.4% |
37.4% |
|
|
16  |
Central Connecticut St. |
Auto |
56.1% |
56.1% |
|
|
16  |
Norfolk St. |
Auto |
46.3% |
46.3% |
|
|
16  |
Quinnipiac |
Auto |
24.0% |
24.0% |
|
|
16  |
Southern |
Auto |
33.5% |
33.5% |
|
|
16  |
Southeast Missouri St. |
Auto |
30.5% |
30.5% |
|
|
16  |
Colgate |
Auto |
21.9% |
21.9% |
|
|
Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams
Bubble Teams - First Teams Out