Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Dec 7, 2024
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 99.7% 22.7% 77.0% 99.6%
1  Tennessee At-Large 99.6% 21.9% 77.7% 99.5%
1  Duke Auto 99.6% 50.5% 49.1% 99.3%
1  Gonzaga Auto 99.7% 73.0% 26.7% 99.0%
2  Alabama At-Large 98.4% 13.6% 84.8% 98.2%
2  Kansas At-Large 99.1% 20.7% 78.4% 98.9%
2  Kentucky At-Large 96.5% 11.4% 85.1% 96.1%
2  Iowa St. At-Large 98.3% 21.1% 77.2% 97.8%
3  Florida At-Large 97.2% 10.9% 86.3% 96.8%
3  Houston Auto 95.2% 21.4% 73.8% 93.8%
3  Marquette Auto 97.0% 25.9% 71.2% 96.0%
3  Michigan Auto 92.4% 12.2% 80.2% 91.4%
4  Oregon At-Large 96.0% 9.6% 86.4% 95.5%
4  Mississippi St. At-Large 88.7% 5.6% 83.2% 88.0%
4  Baylor At-Large 87.3% 9.6% 77.8% 86.0%
4  Purdue At-Large 89.1% 9.4% 79.7% 87.9%
5  Illinois At-Large 86.0% 12.2% 73.9% 84.1%
5  Mississippi At-Large 78.5% 2.7% 75.8% 77.9%
5  Maryland At-Large 87.4% 10.1% 77.3% 86.0%
5  UCLA At-Large 81.1% 10.3% 70.8% 78.9%
6  Michigan St. At-Large 80.6% 7.1% 73.5% 79.1%
6  Connecticut At-Large 84.1% 25.4% 58.7% 78.7%
6  Texas A&M At-Large 71.6% 2.6% 69.0% 70.9%
6  Cincinnati At-Large 78.1% 6.8% 71.4% 76.5%
7  Arizona At-Large 61.7% 6.4% 55.3% 59.1%
7  North Carolina At-Large 77.7% 14.9% 62.8% 73.8%
7  Wisconsin At-Large 77.5% 4.9% 72.6% 76.3%
7  Texas Tech At-Large 76.2% 6.0% 70.1% 74.7%
8  St. John's At-Large 81.7% 20.5% 61.2% 77.0%
8  Texas At-Large 68.0% 2.2% 65.8% 67.3%
8  Arkansas At-Large 62.4% 2.1% 60.3% 61.6%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 62.3% 5.9% 56.4% 60.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Penn St. At-Large 73.2% 6.1% 67.1% 71.4%
9  Indiana At-Large 59.8% 3.8% 56.0% 58.2%
9  Clemson At-Large 80.2% 9.9% 70.4% 78.1%
9  Oklahoma At-Large 64.9% 1.2% 63.7% 64.5%
10  Pittsburgh At-Large 73.4% 7.6% 65.8% 71.2%
10  Georgia At-Large 61.8% 1.4% 60.5% 61.3%
10  West Virginia At-Large 58.6% 2.2% 56.4% 57.6%
10  Nebraska At-Large 55.1% 2.9% 52.2% 53.7%
10  Arizona St. At-Large 55.1% 1.2% 53.9% 54.6%
11  Louisville At-Large 52.1% 5.1% 46.9% 49.5%
11  Creighton At-Large 57.6% 9.5% 48.1% 53.1%
11  Memphis Auto 81.2% 49.2% 32.0% 63.0%
11  San Diego St. Auto 61.5% 27.6% 33.9% 46.8%
11  Dayton Auto 43.9% 27.8% 16.1% 22.3%
12  UC Irvine Auto 56.2% 53.1% 3.1% 6.6%
12  Liberty Auto 38.7% 36.3% 2.5% 3.9%
12  Bradley Auto 33.0% 31.1% 1.9% 2.8%
12  Grand Canyon Auto 38.6% 38.5% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Furman Auto 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 0.1%
13  McNeese St. Auto 52.7% 52.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Kent St. Auto 30.7% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  James Madison Auto 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0%
14  College of Charleston Auto 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Lipscomb Auto 40.2% 40.2% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Yale Auto 31.7% 31.7%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 34.4% 34.4%
15  High Point Auto 24.9% 24.9%
15  Wright St. Auto 23.2% 23.2%
15  Montana St. Auto 33.5% 33.5%
15  Umass Lowell Auto 27.7% 27.7%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 54.8% 54.8%
16  St. Peter's Auto 18.0% 18.0%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 24.6% 24.6%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 36.2% 36.2%
16  Grambling St. Auto 26.4% 26.4%
16  Lafayette Auto 17.0% 17.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Illinois 86.0% 12.2% 73.9% 84.1%
Michigan St. 80.6% 7.1% 73.5% 79.1%
UCLA 81.1% 10.3% 70.8% 78.9%
Connecticut 84.1% 25.4% 58.7% 78.7%
Clemson 80.2% 9.9% 70.4% 78.1%
Mississippi 78.5% 2.7% 75.8% 77.9%
St. John's 81.7% 20.5% 61.2% 77.0%
Cincinnati 78.1% 6.8% 71.4% 76.5%
Wisconsin 77.5% 4.9% 72.6% 76.3%
Texas Tech 76.2% 6.0% 70.1% 74.7%
North Carolina 77.7% 14.9% 62.8% 73.8%
Penn St. 73.2% 6.1% 67.1% 71.4%
Pittsburgh 73.4% 7.6% 65.8% 71.2%
Texas A&M 71.6% 2.6% 69.0% 70.9%
Texas 68.0% 2.2% 65.8% 67.3%
Oklahoma 64.9% 1.2% 63.7% 64.5%
Arkansas 62.4% 2.1% 60.3% 61.6%
Georgia 61.8% 1.4% 60.5% 61.3%
Ohio St. 62.3% 5.9% 56.4% 60.0%
Arizona 61.7% 6.4% 55.3% 59.1%
Indiana 59.8% 3.8% 56.0% 58.2%
West Virginia 58.6% 2.2% 56.4% 57.6%
Arizona St. 55.1% 1.2% 53.9% 54.6%
Nebraska 55.1% 2.9% 52.2% 53.7%
Creighton 57.6% 9.5% 48.1% 53.1%
Louisville 52.1% 5.1% 46.9% 49.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Butler 49.4% 5.3% 44.1% 46.6%
LSU 46.3% 0.8% 45.5% 45.9%
Iowa 45.8% 2.4% 43.3% 44.4%
BYU 38.6% 1.5% 37.1% 37.7%
St. Mary's 41.9% 11.1% 30.8% 34.6%
Utah St. 40.8% 16.2% 24.6% 29.4%
Utah 29.6% 1.0% 28.6% 28.9%
Vanderbilt 29.0% 0.3% 28.7% 28.7%
Northwestern 27.9% 1.0% 26.8% 27.1%
Missouri 27.0% 0.5% 26.6% 26.7%
Kansas St. 27.1% 0.9% 26.1% 26.4%
Rutgers 27.0% 1.3% 25.7% 26.0%
SMU 26.7% 2.8% 23.9% 24.6%
Florida St. 25.9% 2.5% 23.4% 24.0%
Xavier 25.0% 3.7% 21.2% 22.1%
Nevada 35.8% 18.4% 17.4% 21.3%
Villanova 21.9% 5.1% 16.8% 17.7%
Washington 18.1% 0.6% 17.5% 17.6%
New Mexico 27.6% 13.4% 14.1% 16.3%
South Carolina 16.2% 0.2% 15.9% 16.0%
Boise St. 29.1% 16.1% 13.0% 15.5%
Colorado 14.0% 0.2% 13.7% 13.8%
Central Florida 12.0% 0.2% 11.7% 11.8%
Oklahoma St. 11.0% 0.3% 10.7% 10.7%
TCU 10.7% 0.3% 10.4% 10.4%
San Francisco 14.7% 5.7% 9.0% 9.5%
Wake Forest 9.5% 0.6% 8.9% 8.9%
Providence 10.8% 2.2% 8.6% 8.8%
Virginia Commonwealth 28.3% 21.9% 6.5% 8.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina St. 9.6% 1.7% 7.9% 8.1%
Washington St. 10.8% 3.7% 7.1% 7.4%
Virginia 7.9% 0.7% 7.2% 7.2%
DePaul 7.5% 1.3% 6.2% 6.3%
Drake 34.1% 30.0% 4.1% 5.8%
Syracuse 4.6% 0.6% 4.0% 4.0%
Loyola Chicago 12.3% 9.3% 3.0% 3.4%
Stanford 3.8% 0.6% 3.2% 3.2%
Notre Dame 4.3% 1.1% 3.1% 3.2%
Georgetown 3.8% 0.8% 2.9% 3.0%
Oregon St. 6.3% 4.1% 2.2% 2.3%
Wichita St. 12.3% 10.4% 2.0% 2.2%
Rhode Island 10.0% 8.3% 1.7% 1.8%
St. Bonaventure 10.4% 8.7% 1.7% 1.8%
North Texas 16.9% 15.6% 1.4% 1.6%
Santa Clara 3.9% 2.4% 1.5% 1.6%
California 1.8% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5%
USC 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3%
Miami (FL) 1.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2%
Colorado St. 5.4% 4.3% 1.1% 1.1%
Minnesota 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
George Mason 10.4% 9.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Saint Joseph's 7.5% 6.9% 0.6% 0.6%
UNLV 3.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Florida Atlantic 10.9% 10.4% 0.5% 0.6%
Seton Hall 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Georgia Tech 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Louisiana Tech 17.2% 17.0% 0.1% 0.2%
UC San Diego 20.0% 19.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Boston College 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Murray St. 9.6% 9.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Davidson 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Iowa 10.4% 10.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Temple 4.5% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Kentucky 13.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 21.3% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%