Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Feb 13, 2025
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Auburn Auto 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 100.0%
Alabama At-Large 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 100.0%
Duke Auto 100.0% 64.4% 35.6% 100.0%
Houston Auto 100.0% 36.1% 64.0% 100.0%
Florida At-Large 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 100.0%
Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 100.0%
Purdue Auto 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 100.0%
Arizona At-Large 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 100.0%
Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 100.0%
Texas A&M At-Large 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 99.9%
Michigan At-Large 99.9% 12.3% 87.6% 99.9%
Kentucky At-Large 99.9% 3.1% 96.8% 99.9%
Wisconsin At-Large 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 100.0%
Kansas At-Large 99.8% 11.1% 88.7% 99.8%
Iowa St. At-Large 99.9% 15.3% 84.7% 99.9%
St. John's Auto 99.6% 32.6% 66.9% 99.3%
Maryland At-Large 99.7% 11.6% 88.2% 99.7%
Illinois At-Large 99.7% 10.4% 89.3% 99.6%
Missouri At-Large 98.9% 3.7% 95.2% 98.8%
Mississippi At-Large 99.5% 2.5% 97.0% 99.5%
Michigan St. At-Large 98.8% 12.9% 86.0% 98.6%
Marquette At-Large 99.7% 17.3% 82.5% 99.7%
UCLA At-Large 99.4% 7.3% 92.1% 99.3%
St. Mary's At-Large 97.4% 32.5% 64.9% 96.2%
Louisville At-Large 97.1% 13.3% 83.7% 96.6%
Creighton At-Large 98.0% 19.1% 78.9% 97.6%
Baylor At-Large 94.2% 4.9% 89.3% 93.9%
Connecticut At-Large 98.2% 17.2% 81.0% 97.8%
Mississippi St. At-Large 92.9% 0.8% 92.1% 92.8%
Ohio St. At-Large 90.4% 4.4% 86.0% 90.0%
Gonzaga Auto 94.0% 54.1% 39.9% 86.9%
Clemson At-Large 89.1% 10.9% 78.2% 87.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Nebraska At-Large 81.9% 1.3% 80.6% 81.7%
Oregon At-Large 91.8% 0.8% 91.0% 91.8%
New Mexico Auto 85.7% 32.4% 53.3% 78.8%
Memphis Auto 84.4% 47.9% 36.5% 70.1%
10  BYU At-Large 63.5% 1.4% 62.1% 63.0%
10  West Virginia At-Large 71.8% 0.7% 71.1% 71.6%
10  Utah St. At-Large 67.1% 17.9% 49.2% 60.0%
10  Arkansas At-Large 54.2% 0.5% 53.8% 54.0%
11  Oklahoma At-Large 57.9% 0.2% 57.6% 57.8%
11  San Diego St. At-Large 48.9% 14.3% 34.6% 40.3%
11  Vanderbilt At-Large 49.7% 0.1% 49.6% 49.6%
11  SMU At-Large 46.5% 4.7% 41.7% 43.8%
11  Texas At-Large 49.5% 0.3% 49.2% 49.3%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 54.1% 45.8% 8.3% 15.3%
12  Drake Auto 44.0% 38.8% 5.2% 8.5%
12  UC San Diego Auto 54.0% 52.9% 1.1% 2.4%
12  Yale Auto 64.8% 64.8%
12  Liberty Auto 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Arkansas St. Auto 37.5% 37.5%
13  McNeese St. Auto 68.3% 68.3%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 49.8% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Akron Auto 41.1% 41.1%
14  High Point Auto 43.4% 43.4%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 36.9% 36.9%
14  Lipscomb Auto 38.5% 38.5%
14  Chattanooga Auto 27.4% 27.4%
15  UNC Wilmington Auto 29.3% 29.3%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 18.8% 18.8%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 29.3% 29.3%
15  Bryant Auto 37.4% 37.4%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 56.1% 56.1%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 46.3% 46.3%
16  Quinnipiac Auto 24.0% 24.0%
16  Southern Auto 33.5% 33.5%
16  Southeast Missouri St. Auto 30.5% 30.5%
16  Colgate Auto 21.9% 21.9%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Nebraska 81.9% 1.3% 80.6% 81.7%
West Virginia 71.8% 0.7% 71.1% 71.6%
BYU 63.5% 1.4% 62.1% 63.0%
Utah St. 67.1% 17.9% 49.2% 60.0%
Oklahoma 57.9% 0.2% 57.6% 57.8%
Arkansas 54.2% 0.5% 53.8% 54.0%
Vanderbilt 49.7% 0.1% 49.6% 49.6%
Texas 49.5% 0.3% 49.2% 49.3%
SMU 46.5% 4.7% 41.7% 43.8%
San Diego St. 48.9% 14.3% 34.6% 40.3%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgia 39.8% 0.2% 39.7% 39.7%
Indiana 35.2% 0.7% 34.5% 34.7%
Kansas St. 35.0% 0.9% 34.2% 34.5%
Villanova 36.9% 5.5% 31.4% 33.2%
Xavier 36.0% 5.6% 30.4% 32.2%
Cincinnati 28.1% 0.5% 27.6% 27.7%
USC 27.9% 0.7% 27.2% 27.4%
Boise St. 39.5% 19.6% 19.9% 24.7%
North Carolina 24.9% 2.5% 22.5% 23.0%
Wake Forest 23.1% 1.8% 21.3% 21.6%
Pittsburgh 19.3% 1.3% 17.9% 18.2%
Iowa 10.3% 0.2% 10.1% 10.1%
San Francisco 10.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.7%
Santa Clara 10.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.5%
TCU 4.9% 0.1% 4.9% 4.9%
Northwestern 4.5% 0.1% 4.4% 4.4%
Arizona St. 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3%
Central Florida 3.9% 0.0% 3.8% 3.8%
Rutgers 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 2.8%
George Mason 18.5% 16.5% 2.0% 2.4%
Georgetown 2.9% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Stanford 1.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.5%
Florida St. 1.7% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Utah 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%
Colorado St. 7.9% 7.0% 0.9% 1.0%
Oregon St. 3.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9%
UC Irvine 34.6% 34.1% 0.6% 0.8%
Minnesota 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%
Dayton 12.7% 12.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Butler 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Penn St. 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%
Nevada 5.7% 5.3% 0.5% 0.5%
North Texas 24.1% 23.8% 0.3% 0.4%
LSU 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Washington 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Providence 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%