Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
12 Purdue 83.5%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +15.3      +8.9 10 +6.4 19 67.3 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Indiana 65.6%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 9 +12.7      +6.6 28 +6.1 23 70.5 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Illinois 64.0%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +12.5      +8.2 15 +4.4 52 72.7 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 UCLA 64.1%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +12.4      +5.6 45 +6.8 15 60.3 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Michigan St. 63.0%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +12.3      +5.1 51 +7.3 10 64.1 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Rutgers 59.9%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.8      +3.0 92 +8.8 4 69.1 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Michigan 60.5%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.7      +7.1 22 +4.6 46 68.4 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 Ohio St. 55.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +11.7      +6.7 26 +5.0 37 65.6 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Oregon 55.6%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +11.1      +6.3 32 +4.8 39 67.5 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Maryland 52.3%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 10 +11.1      +3.6 83 +7.5 9 64.4 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Wisconsin 48.6%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +10.3      +5.6 44 +4.6 45 64.2 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Iowa 46.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.2      +8.5 13 +1.7 122 77.7 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 USC 43.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 11 +10.0      +5.9 37 +4.1 65 69.7 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Nebraska 39.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 11 +9.5      +5.2 48 +4.3 55 71.1 98 0.0 1 0.0 1
60 Northwestern 38.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +9.0      +4.2 70 +4.7 43 61.7 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Washington 36.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 11 +8.7      +5.0 52 +3.7 77 76.1 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 Penn St. 31.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 12 +8.3      +4.1 72 +4.2 59 73.0 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Minnesota 24.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +7.5      +4.3 67 +3.2 86 66.7 236 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 5.3 21.6 13.6 10.4 8.6 7.1 6.1 5.4 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6
Indiana 7.4 11.0 9.0 8.0 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0
Illinois 7.4 11.0 9.1 8.1 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.4 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.0
UCLA 7.4 10.3 9.1 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.1 6.0 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 1.8
Michigan St. 7.5 10.5 8.9 8.1 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.0
Rutgers 8.4 7.6 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.8
Michigan 8.4 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.6 2.7
Ohio St. 8.2 8.0 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.5
Oregon 8.6 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.3
Maryland 8.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.3
Wisconsin 9.3 5.0 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 4.1
Iowa 9.3 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.2
USC 9.7 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.5 4.8
Nebraska 10.1 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.0
Northwestern 10.7 3.0 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.2
Washington 10.9 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.3
Penn St. 11.2 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6
Minnesota 11.9 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.3 6.7 7.3 8.0 9.0 10.1 10.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.6 8.8 10.3 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.1 6.8 4.5 2.4 0.7
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.9 9.8 10.2 10.2 9.6 8.4 6.8 5.5 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2
Illinois 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.1 6.0 7.6 8.6 9.6 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.5 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.2
UCLA 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.7 9.7 10.5 10.5 9.7 8.6 7.0 5.1 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.5 10.5 10.3 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2
Rutgers 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.1 8.6 9.6 10.0 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.5 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
Michigan 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.2 8.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 9.5 8.4 7.3 5.2 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.2 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.1
Oregon 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.5 8.6 9.8 10.4 10.0 9.5 8.4 6.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
Maryland 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.4 8.8 9.8 10.5 10.1 9.9 8.2 6.9 4.9 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.3 7.0 8.8 9.8 10.3 10.3 9.5 8.7 7.5 5.9 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Iowa 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.5 10.6 10.1 9.9 8.7 7.5 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
USC 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.0 10.4 10.1 9.5 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
Nebraska 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.5 7.9 9.6 10.1 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.8 6.3 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 9 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.7 7.4 8.9 9.6 10.1 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.2 5.6 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.2 7.7 8.9 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.1 6.8 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.3 8.3 9.8 10.3 10.6 10.0 9.1 7.9 6.4 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.5 5.7 7.7 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.7 9.5 8.3 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 21.6% 14.4 5.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 11.0% 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 11.0% 6.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 10.3% 6.2 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 10.5% 6.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 7.6% 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan 7.5% 4.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 8.0% 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 6.8% 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maryland 6.5% 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 5.0% 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 5.1% 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 4.4% 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 3.0% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 3.0% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 1.8% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 83.5% 15.5% 68.0% 3   14.1 13.9 11.9 10.0 8.4 7.0 5.2 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 16.5 80.5%
Indiana 65.6% 8.4% 57.3% 6   4.3 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 34.4 62.5%
Illinois 64.0% 8.2% 55.8% 6   4.2 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.3 7.0 6.4 5.3 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 36.0 60.8%
UCLA 64.1% 7.5% 56.6% 6   4.1 5.6 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.2 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 35.9 61.2%
Michigan St. 63.0% 7.3% 55.7% 7   3.8 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.0 4.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 37.0 60.0%
Rutgers 59.9% 6.5% 53.4% 7   3.4 4.8 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 40.1 57.1%
Michigan 60.5% 6.4% 54.1% 6   3.8 5.3 6.4 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.1 5.2 4.6 3.9 4.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 39.5 57.8%
Ohio St. 55.8% 6.2% 49.6% 8   2.8 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.2 5.4 4.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 44.2 52.9%
Oregon 55.6% 5.4% 50.2% 9   2.5 3.7 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.6 0.9 0.0 44.4 53.1%
Maryland 52.3% 5.2% 47.1% 9   2.0 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 6.0 5.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 47.7 49.7%
Wisconsin 48.6% 4.2% 44.4% 8   1.7 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.5 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 51.4 46.4%
Iowa 46.2% 4.0% 42.1% 10   1.4 2.2 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.3 5.9 5.6 5.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 53.8 43.9%
USC 43.9% 3.6% 40.3% 11   1.2 2.1 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 0.8 0.0 56.1 41.8%
Nebraska 39.7% 3.2% 36.6% 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 60.3 37.8%
Northwestern 38.0% 2.5% 35.4% 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 62.0 36.4%
Washington 36.1% 2.4% 33.6% 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 63.9 34.5%
Penn St. 31.0% 2.0% 29.0% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 69.0 29.6%
Minnesota 24.4% 1.5% 22.9% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 75.6 23.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 83.5% 3.2% 82.0% 65.3% 39.8% 21.5% 11.2% 5.6% 2.7%
Indiana 65.6% 4.1% 63.6% 44.4% 22.6% 11.0% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Illinois 64.0% 4.2% 62.0% 43.0% 21.8% 10.4% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0%
UCLA 64.1% 3.9% 62.1% 42.7% 21.5% 10.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Michigan St. 63.0% 4.6% 60.7% 41.6% 20.4% 9.9% 4.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Rutgers 59.9% 4.6% 57.6% 38.8% 19.0% 8.7% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Michigan 60.5% 4.9% 57.9% 39.4% 19.7% 9.1% 4.1% 1.7% 0.8%
Ohio St. 55.8% 4.2% 53.8% 36.2% 17.5% 8.3% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Oregon 55.6% 4.6% 53.2% 34.4% 16.0% 7.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Maryland 52.3% 3.6% 50.5% 32.3% 14.5% 6.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Wisconsin 48.6% 4.2% 46.4% 29.2% 13.3% 5.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4%
Iowa 46.2% 4.2% 44.1% 26.9% 11.7% 5.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
USC 43.9% 4.5% 41.5% 25.6% 10.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%
Nebraska 39.7% 4.6% 37.4% 22.3% 9.4% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3%
Northwestern 38.0% 4.1% 35.8% 21.4% 8.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Washington 36.1% 3.9% 33.9% 20.1% 8.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Penn St. 31.0% 3.5% 29.3% 16.9% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Minnesota 24.4% 3.7% 22.5% 12.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.3 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.5 18.1 26.9 25.3 14.3 4.7 1.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 10.9 22.3 27.9 21.6 10.0 2.6 0.5 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.3 11.9 21.9 26.2 20.1 10.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.9% 2.9 2.1 11.8 26.2 30.4 20.0 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 79.9% 1.3 20.1 39.7 28.8 9.6 1.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 49.6% 0.6 50.4 39.2 9.5 0.8 0.0
Final Game 25.3% 0.3 74.7 23.9 1.4
Champion 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.5