Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
117 College of Charleston 20.6%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.9      +2.7 101 +0.2 162 74.4 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 Towson 18.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +2.4      +0.1 164 +2.3 104 58.5 360 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Drexel 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +0.4      -0.5 187 +0.8 142 62.5 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Hofstra 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.3      -0.2 176 +0.6 149 65.0 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 UNC Wilmington 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.3      +0.9 147 -0.7 190 64.0 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 Delaware 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.0      -0.8 199 -0.2 172 68.1 184 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 Monmouth 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 9 -2.8      -1.2 213 -1.6 227 68.8 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Northeastern 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 9 - 9 -2.9      -1.6 226 -1.3 218 65.0 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 William & Mary 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.1      -1.6 229 -2.4 259 65.1 278 0.0 1 0.0 1
260 Stony Brook 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -4.9      -2.7 263 -2.2 246 67.9 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Elon 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -6.4      -2.7 260 -3.7 301 68.5 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 Campbell 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -7.2      -3.8 294 -3.4 285 66.3 249 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 N.C. A&T 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -8.1      -3.6 288 -4.5 326 69.0 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Hampton 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 17 5 - 13 -9.3      -4.4 304 -4.8 331 73.1 59 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 3.5 29.6 18.6 13.3 10.0 7.7 6.0 4.4 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2
Towson 4.1 22.9 16.6 13.4 10.6 8.8 7.1 5.5 4.5 3.4 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3
Drexel 5.1 14.9 13.3 12.0 10.6 9.6 8.2 7.2 6.3 5.0 4.4 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.0
Hofstra 4.9 15.5 13.9 12.5 11.0 9.6 8.1 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.8
UNC Wilmington 5.0 15.0 13.2 12.3 10.8 10.0 8.4 7.4 6.1 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.4 1.6 0.8
Delaware 6.3 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 8.6 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.5 4.2 3.1 1.9
Monmouth 7.1 5.7 6.7 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.1 4.8 2.9
Northeastern 7.3 4.8 6.0 6.8 7.9 8.2 9.0 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.2 7.6 6.5 5.1 3.2
William & Mary 7.8 3.8 4.9 6.2 6.9 7.8 8.4 8.6 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.3 7.4 6.3 4.6
Stony Brook 8.4 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.8 7.1 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.4 9.6 8.8 7.9 6.1
Elon 9.1 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.5 6.6 7.5 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.4 9.1
Campbell 9.8 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.4 6.4 7.2 8.8 9.7 11.0 12.2 13.2 12.7
N.C. A&T 9.9 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.5 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.7 12.0 13.1 14.0
Hampton 10.7 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.7 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.8 11.0 13.5 16.7 20.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.1 5.9 8.1 10.0 12.1 13.4 13.1 11.5 9.1 5.4 1.8
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.3 9.6 11.1 12.3 13.1 11.3 9.7 6.6 3.7 1.1
Drexel 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 4.1 6.1 7.7 9.6 10.7 11.3 11.9 10.6 8.9 6.7 4.2 2.0 0.7
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.5 7.1 9.2 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.4 9.3 7.1 4.6 2.2 0.6
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.7 7.9 9.4 10.9 12.1 11.9 10.7 9.3 6.7 4.2 1.9 0.4
Delaware 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.5 10.3 11.2 12.0 11.1 9.6 7.7 5.7 3.5 2.0 0.8 0.2
Monmouth 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.6 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Northeastern 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.1 9.1 10.4 11.8 11.6 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.9 7.9 9.7 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.7 6.6 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.8 7.1 9.4 11.0 11.7 11.7 10.7 9.4 7.3 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Elon 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.6 9.1 10.8 11.9 11.9 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 6 - 12 1.0 3.0 5.9 8.7 10.6 12.3 12.3 11.3 10.1 8.1 6.2 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
N.C. A&T 6 - 12 1.0 3.2 5.8 8.8 11.2 12.1 12.4 11.6 10.0 8.1 6.0 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hampton 5 - 13 1.8 5.3 9.1 11.7 13.0 13.1 12.1 10.0 8.1 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 29.6% 20.0 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 22.9% 14.7 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 14.9% 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 15.5% 9.4 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 15.0% 9.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 8.2% 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 5.7% 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 4.8% 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 3.8% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 20.6% 20.3% 0.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 4.9 5.7 4.5 2.3 0.7 79.4 0.3%
Towson 18.2% 18.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.1 5.1 4.1 2.4 0.8 81.8 0.3%
Drexel 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.8 88.4 0.1%
Hofstra 11.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.1 88.3 0.1%
UNC Wilmington 11.4% 11.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.2 3.0 1.8 0.6 88.6 0.1%
Delaware 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.6 92.1 0.1%
Monmouth 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 95.1 0.0%
Northeastern 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.7 95.4 0.0%
William & Mary 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 96.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 97.4 0.0%
Elon 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 98.5 0.0%
Campbell 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 98.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Hampton 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 20.6% 0.4% 20.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 18.2% 0.5% 18.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 11.6% 0.4% 11.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 11.7% 0.6% 11.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 11.4% 0.3% 11.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 7.9% 0.3% 7.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 4.9% 0.5% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 4.6% 0.4% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.4% 0.3% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 97.8 0.5
2nd Round 14.1% 0.1 85.9 14.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0