Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.8#14
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.3% 9.4% 3.4%
#1 Seed 29.6% 29.9% 13.1%
Top 2 Seed 50.0% 50.5% 22.0%
Top 4 Seed 72.0% 72.5% 41.4%
Top 6 Seed 82.6% 83.1% 53.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.3% 92.7% 72.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.0% 90.4% 68.2%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 4.6
.500 or above 95.0% 95.3% 77.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.1% 73.3%
Conference Champion 30.1% 30.4% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 2.2%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 5.3%
First Round91.5% 91.9% 69.6%
Second Round81.1% 81.6% 55.4%
Sweet Sixteen56.8% 57.2% 31.7%
Elite Eight35.7% 36.0% 17.8%
Final Four21.1% 21.3% 8.6%
Championship Game12.2% 12.4% 4.2%
National Champion6.9% 7.0% 1.9%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 26 - 116 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 186   UNC Asheville W 93-71 98%    
  Nov 08, 2024 134   Arkansas St. W 93-74 96%    
  Nov 11, 2024 99   McNeese St. W 87-71 92%    
  Nov 15, 2024 12   @ Purdue L 80-81 50%    
  Nov 20, 2024 22   Illinois W 88-82 69%    
  Nov 26, 2024 3   Houston L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 27, 2024 29   Rutgers W 80-74 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 66   Notre Dame W 80-70 80%    
  Dec 04, 2024 7   @ North Carolina L 84-85 45%    
  Dec 14, 2024 13   Creighton W 84-77 71%    
  Dec 18, 2024 263   @ North Dakota W 90-70 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 118   Kent St. W 88-70 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 178   South Dakota St. W 92-70 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 85-73 84%    
  Jan 08, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 40   Mississippi W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 16   @ Kentucky W 90-88 55%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   Vanderbilt W 86-72 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 54   LSU W 89-77 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. W 81-77 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 61   Georgia W 88-75 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 15   @ Arkansas W 86-84 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 17   @ Texas W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 10   Auburn W 86-81 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   @ Missouri W 83-77 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 16   Kentucky W 93-85 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 33   Mississippi St. W 84-74 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 14   @ Tennessee W 81-80 53%    
  Mar 05, 2025 25   Florida W 92-83 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   @ Auburn L 83-84 47%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.1 8.3 8.0 5.0 1.9 30.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.4 5.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 8.1 10.2 11.7 13.5 13.0 11.6 8.7 5.1 1.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 99.5% 5.0    4.8 0.3 0.0
16-2 91.7% 8.0    6.5 1.3 0.1
15-3 71.5% 8.3    4.9 2.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 39.2% 5.1    2.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.5% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 20.4 7.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 100.0% 66.3% 33.7% 1.1 1.7 0.2 100.0%
17-1 5.1% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 1.1 4.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.7% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.2 6.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.6% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.4 7.2 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.0% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.8 5.4 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.5 2.9 4.9 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.7% 99.9% 15.3% 84.6% 3.3 1.0 2.7 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 10.2% 99.1% 10.3% 88.8% 4.3 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 8.1% 96.6% 5.6% 91.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.4%
9-9 6.1% 85.1% 3.8% 81.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 84.5%
8-10 4.4% 61.6% 1.8% 59.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 60.9%
7-11 2.6% 32.3% 1.2% 31.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 31.5%
6-12 1.6% 10.6% 1.1% 9.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 9.6%
5-13 0.9% 2.7% 0.3% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.4%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 92.3% 22.9% 69.3% 3.1 29.6 20.4 13.3 8.7 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 90.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.8 13.2