Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#139
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#219
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 13.5% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.6
.500 or above 71.3% 77.2% 51.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.5% 78.9% 63.9%
Conference Champion 15.3% 17.2% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.8% 4.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round11.9% 13.4% 7.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 233   Miami (OH) W 72-64 77%    
  Nov 10, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin L 62-74 14%    
  Nov 14, 2024 186   UNC Asheville W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 19, 2024 289   Queens W 82-71 84%    
  Nov 24, 2024 247   William & Mary W 72-64 77%    
  Nov 27, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. L 68-69 45%    
  Nov 29, 2024 171   Colgate W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 30, 2024 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 125   High Point L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 18, 2024 156   @ Louisiana L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 129   Troy W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 185   Texas St. W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 291   Coastal Carolina W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 107   James Madison W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 16, 2025 227   @ Old Dominion W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 107   @ James Madison L 68-74 32%    
  Jan 23, 2025 134   @ Arkansas St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 29, 2025 227   Old Dominion W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 204   Georgia St. W 74-67 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 291   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   @ Georgia St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 209   Georgia Southern W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   Marshall W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 209   @ Georgia Southern W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 194   @ Marshall L 72-73 50%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.5 3.5 1.8 0.5 15.3 1st
2nd 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.6 0.8 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.9 9.7 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.4 8.6 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.8% 1.8    1.7 0.0 0.0
16-2 92.7% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.3% 4.5    2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.2% 3.4    1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.3% 15.3 9.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 67.6% 55.3% 12.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 27.4%
17-1 1.8% 52.3% 47.3% 5.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 9.6%
16-2 3.8% 40.3% 38.8% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.5%
15-3 6.3% 30.1% 30.0% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 0.2%
14-4 8.6% 23.9% 23.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6
13-5 10.4% 18.4% 18.4% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 8.5
12-6 11.4% 13.0% 13.0% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.9
11-7 11.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.9
10-8 11.2% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.7
9-9 9.7% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
8-10 7.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8
7-11 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 11.8% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 88.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 15.2 30.3 39.4 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 6.4 16.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 4.0